华盛顿——民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）与共和党人迈克·罗杰斯（Mike Rogers）正在周二对密歇根州这个全美首要摇摆州之一的争夺中，检验两种截然不同的获胜理论。这场竞争异常激烈，可能决定参议院的控制权。
JOEY CAPPELLETTI WASHINGTON — Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are testing two sharply different theories for winning one of the nation’s premier swing states Tuesday in a white-knuckle contest that may determine control of the Senate.
埃尔-赛义德旨在证明，以全民医疗保障为核心的毫不妥协的进步派议程，能够在唐纳德·特朗普总统两年前拿下的州赢得大选。这位前韦恩县卫生局长在一场昂贵且激烈的民主党初选中险胜建制派支持的众议员海莉·史蒂文斯（Haley Stevens）。
El-Sayed is aiming to prove that an unapologetically progressive agenda centered on universal healthcare can win a general election in a state President Donald Trump carried two years ago. The former Wayne County health director narrowly defeated establishment-backed Rep. Haley Stevens in an expensive and bruising Democratic primary.
密歇根州多元化的选民群体造就了一个复杂的政治战场，两位提名人都试图争取全州支持，同时在州内庞大的犹太、穆斯林和黑人社群的分歧中寻找平衡。围绕美国对以色列支持的激烈争端以及对反犹太主义的指责给这场竞选蒙上了阴影，并在竞选的最后几天以史蒂文斯令人震惊地背书罗杰斯达到高潮。
Michigan’s diverse electorate has created a complicated political battleground, with both nominees seeking statewide support while navigating divisions among the state’s large Jewish, Muslim and Black communities. Bitter disputes over U.S. support for Israel and accusations of antisemitism overshadowed the race, culminating in Stevens’ shocking endorsement of Rogers in the final days of the race.
对罗杰斯而言，这场竞选是他在2024年密歇根州参议院选举中以不到2万票落败后的第二次机会。这一次，这位前众议员必须在没有特朗普作为选票顶端凝聚力量的情况下获胜，而高昂的油价和其他成本已在全国范围内对共和党人造成了压力。
For Rogers, the race is a second chance after he lost Michigan’s 2024 Senate election by fewer than 20,000 votes. This time, the former congressman must win without Trump as a galvanizing force at the top of the ballot and as high gas prices and other costs have weighed on Republicans nationally.
埃尔-赛义德试图用民粹主义信息扩大密歇根州的民主党联盟，希望在几个月的校园集会后提高青年投票率，同时争取农村地区对现状幻灭的共和党人。
El-Sayed has sought to expand Michigan’s Democratic coalition with a populist message, hoping to drive up youth turnout after months of campus rallies, while winning over disillusioned Republicans in rural areas.
自1994年以来，没有共和党人在该州赢得过参议院竞选，但两届民主党参议员加里·彼得斯（Gary Peters）的退休创造了一个罕见的缺口。这场竞选已成为全美争夺参议院控制权的焦点，自8月4日初选以来，已吸引了远超1亿美元的广告投入。民主党需要夺得四个席位才能赢得多数席位，失去任何一个席位都可能使这一目标遥不可及。
No Republican has won a Senate race in the state since 1994, but the retirement of two-term Democratic Sen. Gary Peters created a rare opening. The race has become a focal point in the national fight for Senate control, drawing well over $100 million in advertising since the Aug. 4 primary. Democrats need to pick up four seats to win the majority, and losing any could put that out of reach.
这场竞选还出现了今年最具煽动性的言论。尽管没有任何此类联系的证据，但共和党人一再试图将有望成为首位穆斯林参议员的埃尔-赛义德与恐怖组织联系起来。特朗普多次称他为“圣战分子”。虽然史蒂文斯对罗杰斯的背书令民主党人震惊，但也反映了自初选以来对史蒂文斯及其部分支持者而言一直暗流涌动的紧张关系。作为底特律大都市部分地区的四任众议员，她在8月份的初选中获得了这些地区黑人和犹太社群的大力支持。
The campaign has also featured some of the year’s most inflammatory rhetoric . Republicans repeatedly have sought to link El-Sayed, who would be the first Muslim senator, to terrorist organizations, despite no evidence of such ties. Trump repeatedly called him a “jihadist.”While Stevens’ endorsement of Rogers stunned Democrats, it reflected tensions that had simmered since the primary for Stevens and some of her supporters. A four-term representative of parts of metro Detroit, she received significant support in the August contest from Black and Jewish communities in those areas.
埃尔-赛义德不得不在初选后的冲刺阶段争取这些选民。9月，首位黑人副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）与埃尔-赛义德一同竞选造势，并在向全国有色人种协进会（NAACP）集会发表讲话时表示，他可以成为特朗普的“权宜之计”。美国历史上首位黑人总统巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）在选举日前几天参加了为埃尔-赛义德及密歇根州其他民主党人举行的集休会。
El-Sayed had to work in the post-primary sprint to win over those voters. In September, Kamala Harris, the first Black vice president, campaigned with El-Sayed and told a gathering of the NAACP that he could be a “stopgap” on Trump. Barack Obama, the nation’s first Black president, joined a rally for El-Sayed and other Democrats in Michigan days before Election Day.
他还受到犹太社群中一些人的批评，史蒂文斯表示，她的叛离是因为他做得不够，未能解决该社群的关切。
He has also been criticized by some in the Jewish community, and Stevens said her defection came after he didn’t do enough to address the community’s concerns.
埃尔-赛义德一直是 israel（原文如此）的直言不讳的批评者，他因对3月份密歇根州一座犹太教堂袭击事件的回应而受到批评，当时他说“受伤的人伤害人”。袭击者在以色列对黎巴嫩的空袭中失去了家人。埃尔-赛义德后来表示，他向“任何觉得我的评论可能具有伤害性的人”表示“抱歉”。共和党人突显了埃尔-赛义德与哈桑·皮克尔（Hasan Piker）的联系，皮克尔是一位受欢迎的政治网络主播，曾就以色列、犹太人和9·11袭击事件发表过煽动性言论。埃尔-赛义德在初选期间曾多次与皮克尔一同公开露面，但此后已与之保持距离。
El-Sayed has been a vocal critic of Israel and was criticized for his response to a March attack on a Michigan synagogue, when he said that “hurt people hurt people.”The attacker had lost family in an Israeli strike in Lebanon. El-Sayed later said that he was “sorry” to “anyone who feels like my comments might have been hurtful.”Republicans have highlighted El-Sayed’s ties to Hasan Piker, a popular political streamer who has made inflammatory comments about Israel, Jews and the Sept. 11 attacks. El-Sayed appeared with Piker multiple times during the primary but has since distanced himself from him .
在8月对阵史蒂文斯的初选中，埃尔-赛义德面临着来自外部团体近6000万美元的花费。美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）花费了近3000万美元，这是其在单场竞选中的最大投资。
El-Sayed faced nearly $60 million in spending from outside groups during the August primary against Stevens. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC , spent nearly $30 million, its largest investment in a single race.
在2024年以微弱劣势落败后，共和党人选择再次提名罗杰斯。当时，尽管特朗普以超过一个百分点的优势赢了密歇根州，但时任众议员埃莉萨·斯洛特金（Elissa Slotkin）仍获胜了。罗杰斯曾是批评特朗普的有线电视新闻网（CNN）撰稿人，近年来他与这位总统贴得更近。
Republicans opted to nominate Rogers again after his razor-thin 2024 loss, when then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin prevailed even as Trump won Michigan by more than a percentage point. Once a CNN contributor who criticized Trump, Rogers has aligned himself more closely with the president in recent years.
与两年前不同的是，罗杰斯在本轮初选中没有遇到任何可行的共和党挑战者，这使他能够花几个月时间筹集资金并为大选做准备，而民主党人则在进行昂贵且分裂的初选。
Unlike two years ago, Rogers faced no viable Republican primary challenge this cycle, allowing him to spend months raising money and preparing for the general election while Democrats battled through their costly and divisive primary.
但政治环境带来了新的挑战。随着日常成本（尤其是加油站油价）保持高位，与伊朗的战争仍在继续。特朗普还对密歇根州的长期经济伙伴、邻国加拿大发动了贸易战。
But the political environment has presented fresh challenges. The war with Iran continues as everyday costs, particularly at the gas pump, remain high. Trump has also waged a trade war with neighboring Canada, a longtime economic partner of Michigan.
罗杰斯将重点放在攻击埃尔-赛义德上，而不是宣扬共和党在国会和白宫的成就，尽管他曾与特朗普一同竞选造势，包括10月25日在休伦港（Port Huron）举行的集会。
Rogers has focused more on attacking El-Sayed than touting Republican achievements in Congress and the White House, even as he has campaigned alongside Trump, including at an Oct. 25 rally in Port Huron.
作为众议院情报委员会的前主席，罗杰斯的大部分职业生涯都围绕着国家安全展开，他必须在保持与特朗普一致的同时，应对不得人心的对伊战争。
A former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee who built much of his career around national security, Rogers has had to navigate the unpopular war with Iran while remaining aligned with Trump.
“与伊朗的战争需要结束，而且要快点结束，”罗杰斯9月在社交媒体上写道。
“The war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly,” Rogers wrote on social media in September.