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南方对民主党来说胜负可期,但他们付出的努力足以取胜吗?The South is in play for Democrats. But have they done enough to win?

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从左至右:南卡罗来纳州众议员吉姆·克莱伯恩;“黑人选民至关重要基金”联合创始人拉托莎·布朗;密西西比州民主党美国参议院候选人斯科特·科洛姆From left: Representative Jim Clyburn of South Carolina; LaTosha Brown, co-founder of Black Voters Matter Fund; Mississippi Democratic US Senate candidate Scott Colom

Democratic领导人多年争论如何在中西部和南部选举年之间分配资源。

Democratic leaders have argued for years over how best to allocate resources between the Midwest and the South during election years.

但今年——国会控制权悬而未决,而唐纳德·特朗普总统的总体好评处于其任期最低点——挫败感随处可见。

But this year — with control of Congress within strike and President Donald Trump’s approval at the lowest of his presidency — frustrations are palpable.

据采访南方籍议员、竞选工作人员和基层组织者,党组织将2026年中间选举视为其在该地区投入和支持水平的转折点,前所未有。

terviews with Southern-based lawmakers, campaign staffers and grassroots organizers, the party apparatus is hailing the 2026 midterms as a watershed moment for its levels of investment and support unlike Democrats have seen in the region in recent memory.

但共和党激进的中选年份重新分配方案以及最高法院对选举权保护措施的削弱,使得基层组织因资金不足而难以动员黑人选民——这是大型南方城市人口中占比显著的关键投票群体。

But an aggressive mid-decade redirecting push by Republicans and a rollback in voting rights protections by the Supreme Court has grassroots organizations frustrated by a lack of funding to turn out Black voters, a critical voting bloc that makes up a sizable portion of the population in major Southern cities.

Black Voters Matter联合创始人拉托沙·布朗(LaTosha Brown)在接受MS NOW采访时表示,她“简直从未如此愤怒”,称该组织及其他聚焦黑人选民投票的团体在本选举周期获得的资金比2022年中间选举时少,尽管此前因“路易斯安那诉卡拉伊斯案”(Louisiana v. Callais)引发的争议不断。

LaTosha Brown, co-founder of Black Voters Matter, a voter mobilization group headquartered in Atlanta, told MS NOW she’s “damn never livid” that her organization and other groups focused on Black voter turnout received less money this cycle than it did in the 2022 midterms despite the uproar caused by the Louisiana v. Callais decision.

布朗解释说:“在我一生中这场最重大的斗争中,让我感到沮丧的是,南方仍然被当作继子对待,没有被当作战场来投入资源。”

“In the moment that is the greatest fight in my lifetime,” Brown explained. “I am frustrated at the fact that the South is still treated like the stepchild and not invested in as a battleground.”

她说:“大党机器——那些未必是推动投票的力量。这甚至让我怀疑:你到底是想扩大基本盘?还是只想赢得一场选举?”

“The big party machines — those are not the ones that are necessarily driving the vote,” she said. “It makes me even wonder: Do you want to even expand the base? Or are you just trying to win an election?”

霍华德·富兰克林领导着总部位于亚特兰大的两党公共事务公司“俄亥俄河南岸”。他说:“当中期选举尘埃落定后,我预计账目将显示民主党在南方投入了创纪录的资金。”

Howard Franklin, who leads Ohio River South, a bipartisan public-affairs firm based in Atlanta, says “when the dust settles on the midterms, I expect the ledger to show record investment by Democrats in the South.”

富兰克林说:“但仔细阅读竞选披露文件也会发现,这些资金大部分来得太晚——更像是为扩大优势而做的最后一搏,而不是早期、持续的投资。早期和非选举年的资金用于基层组织、选民登记和关系信任建设,所有这些在广告撤下后很长时间内仍会持续产生复利效应。”南卡罗来纳州民主党众议员吉姆·克莱伯恩是该党的政治重量级人物,他告诉MS NOW的克里斯·詹辛,他就这个问题已经“喊了很久”。

“But a close reading of campaign disclosures will also reveal that most of those dollars arrived late — more like a last-ditch effort to press their advantage than an early, sustained investment,” Franklin said. “Early and off-year money buys grassroots organizing, voter registration and relational trust, all of which keep compounding long after the ads come down.”Democratic South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn, a political juggernaut in the party, told MS NOW’s Chris Jansing that he’s been “yelling for a long time” about the issue.

克莱伯恩说:“我认为民主党现在已经开始认识到我们很多人一直对他们说的话。你需要打破我们目前所处的这种模式。你需要向南看,向南看。这不再是西进运动了。这是一场正在发生的南方运动。”克莱伯恩的竞选经理恰好也是他的孙子,他说竞选资金并不是激励普通南方人投票的因素。

“I think that the Democratic Party has now recognized what a lot of us have been saying to them,” Clyburn said. “You need to break out of this mode that we’re in. You need to look South, look South. This is not a Westward movement anymore. It’s a Southern movement taking place.”Clyburn’s campaign manager, who also happens to be his grandson, said campaign funding isn’t what will motivate everyday Southerners to vote.

沃尔特·A·里德·克莱伯恩说:“这是一场席卷南方的运动,人们只是受够了、厌倦了。尽管我相信民主党已经在南方投入了大量资金,但真正让人们去投票的是一场民粹主义的、以人民为基础的运动。”民主党全国委员会负责公民参与和选民参与事务的副主席雷娜·沃尔特斯-摩根对此表示赞同。

“This has been a type of movement across the South where people are just sick and tired,” said Walter A Reed Clyburn. “Even though I believe that the Democratic Party has put a lot of money into the South, it’s really a populist, a people-based movement that are getting people to the polls.”Reyna Walters-Morgan, the Democratic National Committee vice chair for civic engagement and voter participation, agrees.

“资金只是其中一部分,”沃尔特斯-摩根说,她住在北卡罗来纳州,创立了“帮助美国投票联盟”。“我们见过个人、竞选团队和外部组织花费巨资,但未必能扭转局势。”典型案例是:佛罗里达州民主党参议员提名人安吉·尼克松,一位激进派旗手,凭借更强的地面竞选操作,击败了获得民主党参议员竞选委员会背书的对手、退役中校亚历山大·温德曼。尽管筹款少了1500多万美元,她仍赢得了初选。不过,她在大选日依然面临艰难的战斗。

“The money piece is only a portion of it,” said Walters-Morgan, who lives in North Carolina and founded the Help America Vote Alliance. “We’ve seen instances where people and campaigns and outside organizations spend a ton of money, and it doesn’t necessarily move the needle.”Case in point: Florida Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon, a progressive firebrand, who upset her Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee-backed opponent, Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, with a stronger ground game. She won her primary despite being outraised by over $15 million. She still faces an uphill battle on Election Day.

竞选资金 今年,两个备受关注的南部摇摆州——佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州——出现了资金充裕的参议员提名人,分别是现任参议员乔恩·奥索夫和前州长罗伊·库珀。据MS NOW的民调合作伙伴FiftyPlusOne显示,两人目前在各自州内均领先共和党对手。

Campaign cash This year, two widely-regarded Southern battleground states, Georgia and North Carolina, feature well-funded Senate nominees in incumbent Jon Ossoff and former Gov. Roy Cooper, who currently hold an edge over their Republican opponents, according to MS NOW’s polling partner FiftyPlusOne.

根据联邦选举委员会的竞选披露文件,奥索夫和库珀在各自州内分别筹集了超过1.36亿美元和4900万美元。与民主党参议院领袖舒默结盟的“参议院多数派政治行动委员会”表示,北卡罗来纳州已从2020年大选时该委员会投入最多的州之一,变为2026年投入最少的州之一。

Ossoff and Cooper have raised more than $136 million and $49 million respectively in their states, according to Federal Election Commission campaign disclosures. The Senate Majority PAC, which is aligned with Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer, says North Carolina has evolved from being one of its most expensive states in the 2020 election to being one of their least expensive in 2026.

在今夏初步宣布在“松柏州”投放4200万美元电视广告后,该超级政治行动委员会因对库珀候选人资格信心增强而撤回了这些资源。密西西比州和南卡罗来纳州的参议院竞选似乎正在趋紧,该超级政治行动委员会也在大选前最后两周向这两州提供了资金支持。

After initially announcing $42 million in TV ads in the Tar Heel State this summer, the political action committee pulled those resources amid growing confidence in Cooper’s candidacy. Mississippi and South Carolina, whose Senate races appear to be tightening, also received funding from the super PAC in the final two weeks before Election Day.

在德克萨斯州,民主党州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科(James Talarico)——一位前教师兼长老会神学院学生——已成为在共和党据点中对抗得到特朗普支持的州检察长肯·帕克森(Ken Paxton)的强劲挑战者。帕克森的竞选从一开始就因丑闻和全国性逆风而举步维艰。但塔拉里科必须努力回应批评,说明他为何没有更多争取黑人选民的支持,而黑人选民在整体上倾向于支持民主党。

In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico — a former teacher and Presbyterian seminarian — has become a formidable challenger in the Republican stronghold against Trump-endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose campaign has been embattled from the start by scandal and national headwinds. But he has had to work to address criticism that he’s not doing more to court Black voters, who overwhelmingly tend to support Democrats.

民主党德克萨斯州众议员贾丝敏·克罗克特(Jasmine Crockett),塔拉里科的主要初选对手,最近在接受北卡罗来纳州当地电视台采访时表示,她认为塔拉里科的竞选更侧重于说服倾向共和党的选民,而不是提升拉美裔和黑人选民的投票率。

Democratic Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett, Talarico’s main primary opponent, recently told a local North Carolina television station that she believes Talarico’s campaign is more focused on persuading Republican-leaning constituents than boosting turnout among Latino and Black voters.

克罗克特指出,德克萨斯州的选民投票率是全美最低的州之一。她在接受WCNC采访时说:“我个人认为我的州是一个不投票的州。‘如果我们能让更多黑人、更多棕色人种、更多有色人种走出来投票,因为我们是多数少数族裔的州,只要把他们拉出来投票,我们就应该能赢。’这就是我的思路。”

Texas, she notes, has one of the lowest voter turnout rates in the country. “I personally believe that my state is a non-voting state,” Crockett told WCNC. “I said, ‘Man, if we can just get more Black folk, more Brown folk, more people of color in general, because we are a majority-minority state, if we can just get them out and get them to vote, we should be able to win.’ That was my path.”

德克萨斯州的政治顾问乔尔·蒙特福特(Joel Montfort)表示,塔拉里科与克罗克特之间持续的紧张关系已成为“一大干扰”。他说:“只要左翼内部出现明显的分歧,互相指责,这在我们没有任何权力的州里根本没有帮助。”

Joel Montfort, a Texas-based political consultant, says that lingering tensions between Talarico and Crockett have been a “big distraction.”“Anytime you have a big wedge right up the middle where the left and the other left are pointing fingers at each other. It’s not helpful in a state where we have no power,” Montfort said.

展望未来,黑人民主党人尤其希望,从2026年中期选举中吸取的教训能够转化为对该地区持续的关注与投入。8月中旬,民主党全国委员会成立了一个“南方州资源中心”,旨在“解决多年来对南方各州政党投入不足的问题”。

Looking ahead Black Democrats, in particular, hope that lessons learned from 2026 lead to a sustained commitment to the region. In mid-August, the DNC created a Southern States Resource Hub intended “to address years of underinvestment in Southern state parties.”

委员会最近两次会议也都在南方举行,包括在得克萨斯州奥斯汀和路易斯安那州新奥尔良举行的会议。民主党全国委员会主席肯·马丁在一份声明中表示:“我为民主党全国委员会对南方各州进行了前所未有的投入感到自豪,同时也在建设赢得各级选举所需的基础设施。”“民主党全国委员会扩大了版图,让共和党处于守势,并使民主党人处于在2026年及以后获胜的有利位置。”

The committee’s two most recent meetings were also held in the South, including in Austin, Texas, and New Orleans, Louisiana. “I am proud that the DNC has made unprecedented investments in Southern states while building the infrastructure necessary to win races up and down the ballot,” DNC Chair Ken Martin said in a statement. “The DNC has expanded the map, put Republicans on defense, and put Democrats in position to win in 2026 and beyond.”

许多民主党人以佐治亚州的参议院代表团为例,证明长期致力于选民参与可以带来怎样的成果。领导民主党政治公司“南方多数”的艾米·莫顿预测,2026年对南方而言将是一个“历史性的选举”季。

Many Democrats point to Georgia’s Senate delegation as evidence of what long-term dedication to voter engagement can result in. Amy Morton, who leads Democratic political firm Southern Majority, predicts 2026 will be a “historic election” season for the South.

“这个周期看起来和感觉上都不同,”莫顿说,她回忆起过去几年外州人士会依赖佐治亚州的活动人士为他们的竞选活动打电话拉票。“当时的看法是我们在这里赢不了,所以我们应该把精力花在别处。”“当时那样判断并不算错;但趋势已经转变,现在人们在支持这里的候选人,”她说。

“This cycle looks and feels different,” said Morton, recalling a time in years past when out-of-state would rely on activists in Georgia to phonebank for their campaigns. “The perception was we could not win here, and so we should spend our energy doing that.”“It wasn’t a bad call at the time; but the trend has transformed, and now people are supporting candidates here,” she said.

随着民主党的注意力很快就会转向2028年,克罗克特最近在南卡罗来纳州——该州承办全国首个初选——对人群表示,总统参选人不应该仅仅因为看到“初选中的机会”才访问该州。

As the party’s attention will very soon turn to 2028, Crockett recently told a crowd in South Carolina, the party’s first-in-the-nation primary host, that presidential hopefuls shouldn’t just be visiting the state because they see “an opportunity in the primary.”

“我希望他们着眼并奔赴南卡罗来纳州,因为,”她说,“他们知道南卡罗来纳州能在大选中再次为他们做到这一点。”

“I want them to look and be running to South Carolina because,” she said, “they know that South Carolina can do it again for them in the general.”

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