2026年11月1日 下午12:57 (美东时间) 罗恩·埃尔文 2026年5月27日，加利福尼亚州马蒂内斯，康特拉科斯塔县选举运营中心的投票贴纸。
November 1, 2026 12:57 PM ET Ron Elving Voting stickers rest at Contra Costa County's election operations facility on May 27, 2026 in Martinez, Calif.
本杰明·范乔伊/盖蒂图片社 数百万美国人正怀着高度的期待或焦虑，亦或两者兼具，注视着周二的中期选举。
Benjamin Fanjoy/Getty Images Millions of Americans are looking to Tuesday's midterm elections with heightened anticipation or anxiety. Or both.
到了这个节骨眼上，我们可以预期，至少有一部分国民将在未来数天乃至数周里，面临政治信心——甚至安全感——的考验。这种考验还可能持续一段时间。“让美国再次伟大”阵营将迎来寒冬？
At this point, we can expect at least some portion of the nation to have its political confidence — and perhaps even its sense of security — tested in the days and weeks ahead. That test could also continue for some time to come. Is winter coming for MAGA?
要寻找对中期选举感到焦虑加剧的选民群体，首当其冲便是那些最忠于特朗普总统的选民。他称他们为“MAGA”，沿用其2016年“让美国再次伟大”的竞选主题。或者，他带着宽广的笑容，干脆就称他们为“我的基本盘”。但寒冬可能正在来临。
The first place to look for elevated anxiety about the midterms would be among those voters most loyal to President Trump. He calls them MAGA, borrowing from his 2016 "Make America Great Again" theme. Alternatively, with a broad smile, he just calls them "my base." But winter may be coming.
民调显示，周二中期选举的选举钟摆将再次向白宫现任者的对立面摆动——过去100年里，每次中期选举几乎无一例外都呈现这一规律。
Polling suggests that on Tuesday the midterm electoral pendulum will once again swing back against the White House incumbent— as it has in every midterm over the last 100 years with very few exceptions.
人们本就预期，这位第二任期总统所属的政党将在他在历次竞选白宫中均告失利的蓝州遭受更重创。但今秋的民调也指向：共和党将在摇摆州，甚至在特朗普三次竞选均以两位数优势获胜的部分红州，遭受重大损失。
More punishment for the party of the second-term president would be expected in the blue states that he lost in each of his three White House campaigns. But this fall's polls are also pointing to significant losses for Republicans in swing states and even in some of the red states Trump won all three times — often by double-digit margins.
这就是为什么总统在竞选最后一个周末，前往爱荷华州和堪萨斯州，为参议院席位进行选举“门线防守”。
That is why the president spent the last weekend of this campaign on making an electoral "goal line stand" for the Senate by visiting Iowa and Kansas.
10年前，特朗普作为初出茅庐的候选人正处高潮之时，赢得了爱荷华州31个此前在2008年和2012年投给民主党人贝拉克·奥巴马的县。至于堪萨斯州，这个历史上坚定的共和党州自1932年以来从未选出过民主党籍参议员。
When Trump, then a first-time candidate, was at high tide 10 years ago, he won 31 Iowa counties that had previously voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. And as for Kansas, the historically Republican state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
然而，特朗普仍将爱荷华州和堪萨斯州的实地造势活动安排在大选前最后一个周末，同时在其他19个州举行远程“电话集会”。（爱荷华-堪萨斯行程曾在大选前一周晚些时候短暂取消，随后在周末前夕恢复。）这一策略表明，特朗普的政治团队依然专注于在对其政党极为不利的环境中限制共和党的席位损失。大多数观察人士，包括那些最努力寻找客观衡量标准的人，现在都预测特朗普所在的政党将失去在众议院的微弱多数优势。
Yet Trump put live visits to Iowa and Kansas on his schedule for the final weekend, even as he did remote "tele-rallies" in 19 other states. (The Iowa-Kansas plan was briefly cancelled late in the pre-election week, then reinstated just before the weekend.) That strategy suggests Trump's political team remains focused on limiting GOP losses in what will be a tough environment for their party. Most observers, including those searching hardest for objective measurements, now predict Trump's party will lose its slim majority in the House.
共识认为参议院形势过于胶着，难以预测，共和党有可能凭借副总统万斯拥有的决定性一票保住多数派地位。限制损失的最佳方式？
The consensus is that the Senate is too close to call and it is possible the GOP could hold the majority using the tie-breaking vote to which Vice President Vance is entitled. Best way to limit losses?
但先例并非真正解释特朗普及其政党预期失利的原因。中期选举必然充当对现任职者的公投，而世界上没有任何现任职者比美国总统更显眼——尤其是现任椭圆办公室主人，这位极具媒体吸引力的人物。换个说法，总统是其政党的领袖和象征，但特朗普将这种个人化推向了另一个层面。总统惯例会为本党中期候选人助选，但特朗普（“假装我在选票上”）一直努力让选举围绕他本人展开。
But precedent is not really the explanation for Trump and his party's expected defeats. Midterm elections inevitably act as referenda on current officeholders, and there is no current officeholder in the world so visible as the U.S. president — especially the Oval Office's current mega-mediagenic occupant. Put another way, presidents are the leaders and symbols of their party, but Trump has taken the personalization to another level. Presidents routinely campaign for their party's midterm candidates, but Trump (" Pretend I'm on the ballot ") has worked hard to make the election about himself.
在首个任期内，特朗普曾尝试一种更常规的做法，在共享权力的体制中扮行行政首长角色。这一次，他以该角色为起点。他将自己塑造成历史事件的推动者和诸多冤屈——无论大小、真假——的复仇者。他把自己呈现为新华盛顿的设计师和新时代的缔造者。并且，他在美国盟友、国会和联邦法系的反对声中完成了这一切。
In Trump's first term he tried out a more conventional approach, acting as an executive in a system of shared powers. This time around, Trump has taken that role as a starting point. He has cast himself as the driver of historic events and the avenger of many wrongs — large or small, real or imagined. He presents himself as the architect of a new Washington and the author of a new era. And he has done it all despite objections from U.S. allies around the world and from Congress and from the federal bench.
效果取决于受众。特朗普对其角色的精彩演绎在其基本盘中反响良好，但更广泛的选民群体则是另一回事。反特朗普集会所采用的更有效主题之一，是极其简单的反独裁口号“不容国王”。批评者和民主党人能够聚焦于特朗普所做出但尚未兑现的承诺和表态。乌克兰第一天就实现和平？以色列和巴勒斯坦开启新时代？目前都尚未实现。
How it's playing depends on audience While Trump's bravura interpretation of his role has played well with his base, the larger electorate is a different story. Among the more effective themes taken up by anti-Trump rallies has been the ultra-simple, anti-autocrat mantra of "No Kings." Critics and Democrats have been able to focus on promises and pronouncements Trump has made but on which he has yet to deliver. Peace in Ukraine on Day 1? A new era for Israel and the Palestinians? Not so far.
这些外交政策问题很重要，但对选民而言，更大的失望在于经济。特朗普曾说他会让物价更低、抑制通胀。但通胀依然居高不下，公众看到汽油价格引领日常开支持续上涨。
These foreign policy issues matter, but to voters the greater disappointment is economic. Trump said he would make things cheaper and tame inflation. But inflation remains elevated and the public sees the price of gas leading a sustained surge in everyday costs.
因此，特朗普最近的支持率平均值从2025年初的明确多数（民调平均值为52%）下降到目前的平均37%，这并不令人意外——跌破了过去曾预示中期选举惨败的40%门槛。但民主党准备好接手了吗？
So it should be no surprise that any average of Trump's recent approval numbers shows them falling from a clear majority (52% in average of polls) early in 2025 to an average of 37% now — breaking below the 40% threshold that has signaled brutal midterm results in the past. But are Democrats ready to take over?
另一方面，一些民主党人表现出的自信可能为时过早。如果他们赢得众议院，其多数席位按历史标准将属于微弱优势。如果他们在参议院勉强获得多数，席位将如此之少，以至于主要受益者很可能是那些愿意在两党阵营中都违抗党派领导的异见者。
On the other hand, the confidence some Democrats are showing may be premature. If they win the House their majority will be on the modest side by historic standards. If they eke out a majority in the Senate it will be so narrow that the primary beneficiaries are likely to be the mavericks who are willing to buck the party leadership — on both sides of the aisle.
此外，即使是强大的民主党多数席位，也必须面对其内部持续存在——甚至可能在扩大——的重大分歧。最明显的是，多数派共识建设者与该党左翼激进派之间的对比。后者对本届国会提名的候选人阵容感到满意，其中包括与美国民主社会主义者结盟或有关联的一批人。
Moreover, even robust Democratic majorities would need to confront the significant divisions that persist — and may be growing — in their ranks. The most glaring is the contrast between majoritarian consensus builders on one hand and the party's firebrands on the left. The latter group has been pleased with the party's class of nominees for Congress this year, including a cadre aligned or associated with the Democratic Socialists of America.
DSA候选人引起了媒体关注，并在共和党的秋季竞选广告和宣传中被突出展示，即使在DSA支持的候选人在初选中失利、未进入11月选票的地方也是如此。
The DSA candidates have attracted attention from the media and been prominently featured in Republicans' fall campaign ads and messaging, even in places where the DSA favorite lost in the primary and is not on the November ballot.
在一定程度上，2026年的民主党人能够围绕能源和杂货价格以及对伊朗的战争等问题团结起来。反对为人工智能行业建设的大型数据中心也是另一个共同的事业。无论分歧如何，今年的民主党人都在反对特朗普的问题上形成了一片反对的合唱。
To some degree, the 2026 Democrats have been able to unite around issues such as energy and grocery prices and the war on Iran. Opposing vast data centers to be built to serve the AI industry has been another shared cause. And whatever their differences, this year's Democrats have been a chorus of opposition to Trump.
但有理由怀疑，如果民主党重新执政，这一统一战线能否保持。大多数人预计，明年国会至少有一个议院将由民主党掌控，而且2028年之后将有一位新总统。
But there are reasons to doubt the united front can be preserved if the Democrats get back into power. Most expect at least one chamber of Congress to be theirs in the new year, and there will be a new president after 2028.
一位长期关注民主党内部问题的政治人口学家和作家是鲁伊·泰谢拉。他职业生涯的大部分时间都在与民主党相关的智囊团工作，例如美国进步中心和布鲁金斯学会，但现在在商业导向的美国企业研究院。他最著名的是2002年与约翰·贾迪斯合著的《新兴的民主党多数派》，但泰谢拉长期关注该党与白人非大学受教育选民的历史，也是与乔尔·罗杰斯合著《美国被遗忘的多数派：为什么白人工人阶级仍然重要》的作者。
One political demographer and author who has been focused on the Democrats' internal issues is Ruy Teixeira, who spent most of his career at think tanks associated with Democrats such as the Center for American Progress and the Brookings Institution but is now at the business-oriented American Enterprise Institute. He is best known for his 2002 book with John Judis entitled, The Emerging Democratic Majority but Teixeira has long been focused on the party's history with white, non-college educated voters and is also the author with Joel Rogers of America's Forgotten Majority: Why The White Working Class Still Matters.
10月，泰谢拉发表了11个问题，他说如果民主党重新获得国会权力，必须面对这些问题。最后一个问题是，该党是否会采纳与工人阶级选民产生共鸣的立场，并优先考虑他们的利益，而不是近期集中在种族、性别、能源、环境和社会政策上。
In October, Teixeira published 11 questions he said Democrats must confront if they regain congressional power. The final question was whether the party would embrace positions that resonate with working-class voters and prioritize their interests rather than its recent concentration on race, gender, energy, environment and social policy.
投下更长的阴影 除了对两大政党的质疑，这些中期选举还对美国选举本身的运行方式产生了怀疑。几代人以来，美国人普遍对其选举制度和结果抱有信心，但这也已成为攻击目标。
Casting a longer shadow Beyond the questions for the two major parties, these midterms have cast doubt on the conduct of U.S. elections themselves. For generations, Americans have generally shown confidence in their electoral systems and results, but that too has become a target.
埃里克·克莱普顿经典1992年专辑《插拔》中有一首令人难忘的歌曲，反复唱出标题句：”凭信念前行。”
There is a haunting song on Eric Clapton's classic 1992 album Unplugged that repeats the title line: " Running on Faith."
这是一种看待民主的方式。民主制度要运行并生存，就需要人们对民主制度抱有信心。
That is one way to think of democracy. Faith in the democratic system is required if the system is going to work and survive.
民主常被称为一场持续的实验。它检验人们能否在自身治理中拥有发言权，以及这种发言权能否被听到和重视。
Democracy has often been called an ongoing experiment. It tests whether people can have a voice in their own governing, and whether that voice can be heard and heeded.
当然，它也检验涉及的机制和个人。但归根结底，它检验的是选民对制度本身的信心。民意是否清晰，并将推动美国政治生活进入下一阶段？
It tests the mechanisms and individuals involved, to be sure. But ultimately, it tests voters' faith in the system itself. Will the will of the people be clear and will it drive the next phase of American political life?
在选举法律和机器方面的非党派专家——学者、记者、律师和其他人——通常一直为美国现行选举程序辩护。自《帮助美国投票法》两十年前成为法律以来，在联邦和州层面的立法、行政专业精神和新资金，改善了美国选举的管理。该法案是在2000年佛罗里达州计票混乱之后出台的。《帮助美国投票法》使各州和地方能够用触摸屏技术和可保存的纸质痕迹取代冲击卡选票等过时方法，提高了选民信心和安全性。
Nonpartisan experts in voting laws and machinery — academics, journalists, lawyers and others — have, as a rule, defended the current state of American processes. Legislation, administrative professionalism and fresh funding at the national and state levels have upgraded the administration of American elections since the Help America Vote Act became law two decades ago, following the Florida vote-counting debacle in the year 2000. HAVA enabled states and localities to replace punch-card ballots and other outdated methods with touch-screen technology and preservable paper trails, improving voter confidence and security.
然而，制度的信心在未来几天很可能受到考验。这不仅仅关乎某一场竞选或某一个州。这不仅仅关乎候选人和议题。这关乎特朗普反复在没有证据的情况下质疑的制度。
And yet, faith in the system is likely to be tested in the days ahead. It's not just about one race or one state. It's not just about candidates and issues. It's about the system that Trump repeatedly calls into question without evidence.
一个根深蒂固的模式 早在2016年首次提名时，特朗普就告诉他的支持者，如果他输了，那只能是因为选举过程存在舞弊。他说，民主党不可能在不作弊的情况下获胜，而失败只会证明他的断言。
A well-established pattern As far back as his first nomination in 2016, Trump was telling his crowds that if he lost it would be because the process was fraudulent. There was no way the Democrats could win unless they cheated, he said, and a defeat would simply prove his assertion.
四年后，特朗普于2021年1月6日能够召集数千名支持者来到华盛顿，抗议并否认他去年11月总统选举的失败。“停止窃选”是口号，其基础仅仅是猜测和情绪，以及对不同结果的偏好。
Four years later, Trump was able to summon thousands of his supporters to Washington on Jan. 6, 2021 to protest and deny his defeat in the previous November's presidential election. "Stop the steal" was the cry, based on nothing but conjecture and emotion and a preference for a different outcome.
相比之下，2024年特朗普接受了选举结果，因为他和他的政党获胜了。但他继续将信息——无论是民调结果还是简单的日常新闻报道——标记为假新闻。面对一名持有白宫记者证的记者提问，他反问：“你是哪家媒体的？”接着他说：“你是假新闻。”他经常告诉听众忽略“假新闻”和“假民调”。很容易想象他会敦促支持者忽略“假结果”。本周选举之夜将会有紧张局势，这向来如此。但更大的压力可能会在未来几天和几周内出现。敬请期待。2026年中期选举
In contrast, Trump accepted the results in 2024 as he and his party won. But he continues to label information — be it polling results or simple daily news reporting — as fake. He responds to a question from a White House credentialed reporter by asking: "Who are you with?" Then he says: "You're fake news." He regularly tells his audiences to ignore "fake news" and "fake polls." It is easy to imagine him exhorting his followers to ignore "fake results." There will be tension on election night this week, as there always is. But the greater stress may come in the days and weeks ahead. Stay tuned. 2026 midterms