北美科技记者 莉莉·贾马利 旧金山 2026年11月1日 格林威治标准时间 01:37 AI生态系统中一个曾经默默无闻的角落如今置身聚光灯下——而投资者们看到的并不全是好事。
Lily Jamali North America Technology correspondent San Francisco 1 November 2026, 01:37 GMT A once-obscure corner of the AI ecosystem finds itself in the spotlight – and investors don't all like what they see.
CoreWeave（科尔韦夫）和Nebius（内比乌斯）等名字，在旧金山和硅谷的科技圈里耳熟能详。
Names like CoreWeave and Nebius are familiar to the tech set in San Francisco and Silicon Valley.
这些被称为“新云厂商”的数据中心公司，运营着塞满昂贵计算机的大型仓库，并将其租赁给Anthropic、OpenAI和Meta等主要AI开发商。它们现在已成为硅谷最激烈辩论的主题之一。
These data centre companies, known as neocloud firms, run large warehouses packed with expensive computers, which they lease to major AI developers like Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta. They're now the subject of one of Silicon Valley's most heated debates.
许多人质疑新云厂商是否财务稳健，以及它们近期的跌跌撞撞透露出AI经济怎样的状态。
Many question whether neocloud firms are financially sound and what their recent stumbles tell us about the state of the AI economy.
市场研究机构Gartner的分析师预测，到2030年，80%的新云厂商将“停止独立运营”；Forrester（福莱斯特）的专家则预计，随着财务状况变得摇摇欲坠，至少有三家新云厂商将在不久后被收购。
Analysts at Gartner predict by 2030, 80% of neocloud firms will "cease independent operations", while Forrester's experts expect at least three of them to be imminently acquired "as finances get shaky".
周四，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在CNBC上试图淡化外界对新云厂商的近期担忧，称它们是“整个生态系统中的一小部分”。
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to downplay recent concerns about neocloud firms, calling them " a small component of the overall ecosystem " on CNBC.
债务担忧 新云厂商通常通过与需要快速获取算力的大型科技客户签订长期租赁合同来融资。
Debt worries Neocloud firms often finance themselves byg long-term lease contracts with major tech customers who need quick access to computing power.
“The Quiet Period”IPO研究机构的分析师科里·约翰逊解释说，这些公司随后可以利用那些合同——加上它们购买的AI芯片——作为抵押借款。他说，债务在新云厂商中很常见，因为硬件必须预先付款。
Firms can then borrow money using those contracts – plus the AI chips they purchase – as collateral, explained analyst Cory Johnson of "The Quiet Period" IPO research outfit. He said debt is common across neocloud firms because the hardware has to be paid for up front.
以行业龙头CoreWeave为例。与其服务的某些大型科技公司相比，它只是九牛一毛。
Take the industry leader: CoreWeave. It's a fraction of the size of some of the Big Tech companies it serves.
但约翰逊认为，放贷人有时在放贷时，更看重CoreWeave客户（如微软或Meta）的信用资质，而非该公司自身的信用资质。
But Johnson believes lenders sometimes consider the creditworthiness of CoreWeave's customers, like Microsoft or Meta, more than the company's when they lend.
“这有助于解释CoreWeave为何累积了351亿美元（约合263亿英镑）的债务，”他说。一些忐忑不安的投资者似乎正在重新考量。CoreWeave股价在过去一个月蒸发四分之一，并非孤例。
"This helps explain how CoreWeave accumulated $35.1bn (£26.3bn) in debt," he said. Some jittery investors appear to be having second thoughts. CoreWeave stock has lost a quarter of its value over the past month, and it's not alone.
同期内，Nebius、IREN和Applied Digital等其他“新云”企业的股价也都下跌了大致相同幅度，甚至更多。
Shares in other neocloud firms like Nebius, IREN, and Applied Digital have all shed about that much if not more during the same period.
债券投资者似乎也受到惊吓，正要求该领域多家公司提供更高的回报率。
Debt investors also appear spooked, and are demanding ever-higher returns from several firms in the sector.
CoreWeave首席执行官Mike Intrator表示，市场表现“非理性”，并对公司商业模式充满信心。全球一些最具影响力的公司正排队采购CoreWeave的基础设施和其他AI服务。
CoreWeave's CEO Mike Intrator has said that the market is acting "irrationally" and has expressed confidence in its business model. Some of the world's most consequential companies are queuing up for CoreWeave's infrastructure and other AI services.
源于加密货币 多家“新云”企业的根基在于波动剧烈的加密货币挖矿行业，该行业由生产比特币等加密货币的公司组成。加密货币矿工使用的部分物理基础设施，与开发AI所用者相同。CoreWeave成立于2017年，最初专注于以太坊挖矿。
Origins in crypto Several neocloud firms have their roots in the volatile crypto mining industry, made of companies that generate cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin. Crypto miners use some of the same kind of physical infrastructure that is used to develop AI. CoreWeave was founded in 2017 with a focus on mining Ethereum.
IREN、Core Scientific和Applied Digital同样起步于加密货币挖矿。
IREN, Core Scientific and Applied Digital also started in crypto mining.
这些基础设施使它们在2022年OpenAI推出ChatGPT引发AI爆发时，处于有利位置。
Their infrastructure left them well-positioned when AI exploded in 2022 with the introduction of OpenAI's ChatGPT.
Nebius是个例外，该公司在2024年剥离并更名前，名为Yandex NV，曾是俄罗斯版Google的一部分。
One outlier is Nebius, which was known as Yandex NV when it was part of Russia's version of Google before splitting off and changing its name in 2024.
如今，这些公司的成败取决于主要AI开发商和超大规模运营商的命运——后者是规模更大的数据中心运营商，往往是“新云”企业的关键客户。
Now, the success of these firms hinges on the fate of major AI developers and hyperscalers – even larger data centre operators which neocloud firms often count as key customers.
S&P Global旗下Visible Alpha Research负责人Melissa Otto表示：“系统内注入了巨额支出。这是一场军备竞赛。”而“新云”企业从中受益。
"There is just an enormous amount of spending getting injected into the system," said Melissa Otto, head of Visible Alpha Research at S&P Global. "It's an arms race." And neoclouds have benefitted.
但Forrester副总裁兼首席分析师Charlie Dai指出，其模式的代价是在变化面前面临“更大的财务风险”。这包括其大科技客户可能对支出计划做出的任何调整。
But the trade-off of their model is "greater financial risk" in the face of change, said Forrester VP and principal analyst Charlie Dai. That includes any adjustments that their Big Tech customers might make to their spending plans.
上周，微软和谷歌预测的人工智能支出低于华尔街分析师的预期，导致多家新云计算公司的股价暴跌。
This past week, when Microsoft and Google forecast less AI spending than Wall Street analysts had projected, shares in several neocloud firms tumbled.
Anthropic 和 OpenAI 的前景同样备受关注，这两家公司预计将在未来几个月开始向公众出售股份。
Much is also riding on Anthropic and OpenAI, which are both expected to start selling shares to the public in the months ahead.
Tusk Ventures 的 Bradley Tusk 表示：“如果人工智能被证明是一个泡沫——并且破裂了——新云计算公司‘肯定会面临连带损害’。”“小鱼级别的死亡”新云计算公司的未来还取决于它们维持借贷的能力，而随着利率上升，借贷成本变得更高。
If AI proves to be a bubble – and bursts – neocloud firms "are definitely going to face collateral damage," said Bradley Tusk of Tusk Ventures. 'Guppy-level death' The future of the neoclouds also depend on their ability to keep borrowing, which gets more expensive as interest rates rise.
埃隆·马斯克最近在社交媒体发文指出，这一挑战可能导致 200 多家新云计算公司“面临小鱼级别的死亡和整合”，规模最小的公司最为脆弱。他补充道：“一些公司能挺过去，但不会有很多。”
In a recent social media post, Elon Musk suggested this challenge could lead more than 200 neoclouds to "see guppy-level death and consolidation", with the smallest firms being the most vulnerable. "Some will make it through, but not many," he added.
目前，Yorkville Ives 的分析师表示，算力需求仍然超过供应，并指出新云计算公司正在填补大型数据中心公司无法填补的重要空白。但对一些人来说，新云计算行业近期的动荡令人担忧。
For now, analysts at Yorkville Ives said demand for computing power still exceeds supply, adding that neoclouds are filling an important gap that larger data centre companies cannot fill. But to some, the neocloud sector's recent wobbles are concerning.
微软最近因电力供应问题取消了与一家名为 Nscale 的英国新云计算公司的交易，该问题可能持续到 2030 年。
Microsoft recently cancelled a deal with a British neocloud outfit called Nscale amid power supply issues which could last through to 2030.
澳大利亚的 Firmus 刚刚搁置了首次公开募股（IPO）计划。
Australia's Firmus just shelved plans to start selling shares to the public.
这些事态发展发生在公众对数据中心的抨击声中，同时也引发了关于人工智能能为劳动生产率增加多少价值的质疑。Johnson 表示：“有理由担心。”人工智能 计算
These developments come amid a public backlash against data centres and questions about how much value AI can add to worker productivity. "There's reason to worry," said Johnson. Artificial intelligence Computing
