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印度斯坦时报

阿拉斯加一场正在发酵的灾难可能让民主党失去参议院An unfolding disaster in Alaska could cost Democrats the Senate

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民主党需要净增四个参议院席位才能控制国会上院。现在,随着11月3日选举日临近,对这一努力至关重要的一个州正陷入混乱。共和党人数月来一直声称,居住在小渔村的退休教师丹·J·沙利文发起参议院竞选,是为了混淆选民并分流丹·S·沙利文(共和党现任参议员)的选票。这位退休的沙利文先生此前否认有此类不轨目的。

DEMOCRATS NEED a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber of Congress. Now, with election day looming on November 3rd, a state crucial to that effort is descending into chaos. Republicans have asserted for months that Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher living in a small fishing village, launched a Senate campaign to confuse voters and siphon votes from Dan S. Sullivan, the Republican incumbent. Mr Sullivan, the retiree, previously denied such devious aims.

但10月28日,《纽约时报》报道称,民主党竞选工作人员悄悄努力招募候选人,包括沙利文先生,这些候选人可能会损害现任参议员连任的机会。11月1日,一名联邦法官驳回了司法部(DoJ)试图阻止认证阿拉斯加州选举结果的尝试,前提是现任沙利文先生落败。参议院民主党候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉否认对该计划有任何个人了解。

But on October 28th the New York Times reported that Democratic campaign operatives worked quietly to recruit candidates, including Mr Sullivan, who might hurt the sitting senator’s chance of re-election. On November 1st a federal judge rejected an attempt by the Department of Justice (DoJ) to prevent the certification of Alaska’s election should Mr Sullivan, the incumbent, lose. Mary Peltola, the Democratic candidate for Senate, denies any personal knowledge of the scheme.

但整个事件对佩尔托拉女士及其党来说是一场噩梦。在竞选最后几天,她本应谈论汽油价格或深海拖网捕捞,却被迫为其工作人员的道德问题辩护。尽管法院已下令,但共和党人担心可能失去该席位,他们提出的对该州选举公正性的质疑可能会持续数周。

However the entire affair is a nightmare for Ms Peltola and her party. Rather than talking about petrol prices or deep-sea trawling in the closing days of the campaign, she is being forced to defend the ethics of her staff. Despite the court order, doubts about the state’s election integrity, advanced by Republicans worried they may lose the seat, could fester for weeks.

虽然“堆叠选票”卑鄙,但既不违法,历史也表明,其效果并不特别显著。2024年,华盛顿州的一名共和党活动人士说服了两个名叫鲍勃·弗格森的人以民主党身份参选州长,对抗第三个鲍勃·弗格森,后者是该州总检察长,现已当选州长。6月,阿拉斯加州最高法院裁定,退休的沙利文先生确实是合格候选人。该州选举官员试图在选票上区分两位沙利文,以限制选民混淆。参议员沙利文在选票上列为“沙利文,丹·S.(登记共和党人)现任”。

Ballot stacking, though ignoble, is neither illegal nor, history suggests, particularly effective. In 2024 a Republican activist in Washington convinced two Bob Fergusons to run as Democrats in the governor’s race against a third Bob Ferguson, who was the state’s attorney general—and is now governor. In June Alaska’s supreme court ruled that Mr Sullivan, the retiree, was indeed an eligible candidate. The state’s election officials have tried to differentiate the Sullivans on the ballot to limit voter confusion. Senator Sullivan is listed as “Sullivan, Dan S. (Registered Republican) Incumbent”.

由于阿拉斯加采用排序选择投票制,打算投票给现任议员的阿拉斯加选民可以将两位沙利文都排在佩尔托拉之前,以确保他们的选票不会被浪费。特朗普的司法部认为这不够。10月22日,在《纽约时报》报道之前,司法部在联邦法院提起诉讼,试图阻止该竞选的认证,以防现任议员以微弱差距落选。由于美国的选举由各州而非联邦政府管理,阿拉斯加选举官员辩称,“没有法律依据”支持联邦政府介入处理两位丹·沙利文的问题。

Because Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, Alaskans who intend to pick the incumbent rank can rank both Sullivans ahead of Ms Peltola, to ensure that their votes won’t be wasted. Donald Trump’s DoJ deemed this insufficient. On October 22nd, before the report from the Times, it filed suit in federal court to block certification of the race if the incumbent loses narrowly. Because elections in America are run by states, not the federal government, Alaska’s election officials argued that “no legal authority” supports federal involvement in its handling of the Dan Sullivans.

由贝拉克·奥巴马任命的法官莎伦·格利森似乎同意这一观点,驳回了政府的诉讼。在一份法庭之友简报中,加州大学洛杉矶分校选举法专家里克·哈森写道,特朗普政府“提出了一种‘赢家通吃、输家全输’的情景,只偏袒一种结果”。特朗普、一些阿拉斯加共和党人以及司法部仍在利用《纽约时报》的报道对选举公正性提出新的质疑。

Judge Sharon Gleason, an appointee of Barack Obama, seemed to agree, and dismissed the government’s case. In an amicus brief, Rick Hasen, an election-law expert at the University of California, Los Angeles, wrote that the Trump administration “proposes a ‘heads we win, tails you lose’ scenario that favors only one outcome.”Mr Trump, some Alaska Republicans and the DoJ are still using the Times report to cast fresh doubt on the election’s integrity.

在真相社交上,特朗普将所谓的选票堆叠称为“对美国公众的欺诈”。阿拉斯加即将卸任的共和党州长迈克·邓利维下令对该事项进行州级调查。作为其自身刑事调查的一部分,司法部已向几名据称与该计划有关的民主党人士发出传票。目前,任何诉讼或《纽约时报》的报道都未发现证据表明沙利文受贿参选或作伪证。佩尔托拉向选民发出的呼吁建立在她直率、富有同理心的个人形象之上。

On Truth Social Mr Trump called the alleged ballot stacking “A FRAUD ON THE AMERICAN PUBLIC”. Mike Dunleavy, Alaska’s outgoing Republican governor, has ordered a state investigation of the matter. As part of its own criminal probe, the DoJ has issued subpoenas to several Democrats allegedly tied to the scheme. None of the litigation, nor the Times’s reporting, has unearthed evidence that Mr Sullivan was bribed to run or that he perjured himself. Ms Peltola’s appeal to voters rests on her no-nonsense, empathetic persona.

她是阿拉斯加原住民,在库斯科克温河长大捕鱼,更愿意自称阿拉斯加人而非民主党人。上个月,《经济学人》记者在阿拉斯加科迪亚克岛与选民会面时,几位选民表示,他们支持这位前众议员,因为她“非常友善”且“诚实”。

An Alaska Native, she grew up fishing on the Kuskokwim River and prefers to call herself an Alaskan rather than a Democrat. When The Economist met voters last month on the Alaskan island of Kodiak, several said they supported the former congresswoman because she was “quite nice” and “honest”.

指控称民主党操作人员为她从事此类欺骗行为,可能会粉碎这一形象。在指控、调查和诉讼纷至沓来之际,选民们已经在表达自己的意见。截至10月31日,阿拉斯加州约有14%的选民已经投票。然而,关于丹·沙利文的双重纠纷不会在选举日结束。该州计票缓慢,部分原因是其部分社区极为偏远,另一部分原因是它接受海外选民在选举日后15天内寄回的邮寄选票。

Allegations that Democratic operatives engaged in such chicanery on her behalf may shatter that image. While accusations, investigations and lawsuits fly, voters are already having their say. As of October 31st, roughly 14% of Alaska’s voters had cast their ballots. However, the double Dan Sullivan saga will not end on election day. The state is slow to count votes, both because some of its communities are so remote and because it accepts mail ballots from overseas voters for 15 days following election day.

其排序选择票的计票将在11月18日之前进行;选举官员希望在25日之前认证结果。如果佩托拉获胜,一些共和党人可能会大喊不公。他们已经在为如何阻止她就职铺路。邓利维州长暗示,该州认证选举的流程可能需要“被停止或改变”。选举部门主任负责认证结果。但共和党副州长南希·达尔斯特罗姆主持阿拉斯加州的选举。

Its tabulation of ranked-choice votes won’t occur until November 18th; election officials hope to certify results by the 25th. If Ms Peltola wins, some Republicans will probably cry foul. They are already laying the groundwork for how they might prevent her from being seated. Mr Dunleavy has suggested that the state’s process for certifying the election may need to be “stopped or changed”. The director of the Division of Elections certifies results. But the Republican lieutenant governor, Nancy Dahlstrom, presides over Alaska’s elections.

如果邓利维或达尔斯特罗姆试图中断这一过程,可能会引发更多诉讼。沙利文参议员则表示,他将接受选举结果。如果民主党在其他地方赢得足够多的席位,他们可能不需要阿拉斯加州来确保控制参议院。如果他们做不到,参议院多数党的归属可能会在阿拉斯加州一直诉讼到12月。

If Mr Dunleavy or Ms Dahlstrom try to interrupt the process, that may yield more lawsuits. Senator Sullivan, for his part, has said he will accept the results of the election. Democrats may win enough races elsewhere that they will not need Alaska to secure control of the Senate. If they don’t, the fate of the Senate majority may be litigated in Alaska into December.

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