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分析:阿拉斯加民主党人推动丹·沙利文“堆票”之举正中特朗普下怀 | CNN政治Analysis: Alaska Democrats played into Trump’s hands with Dan Sullivan ballot-stacking effort | CNN Politics

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Kerry Tasker/路透社Kerry Tasker/Reuters

阿拉斯加民主党人给了唐纳德·特朗普完全想要的东西。总统抓住了一份报告引发的风暴,报告称与参议员候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉结盟的民主党人试图在她对阵现任共和党参议员丹·沙利文的竞选中混淆选民,招募了一名同名的第二位候选人。

Alaska Democrats gave Donald Trump exactly what he wanted. The president seized on a storm unleashed by a report that Democrats aligned with Senate candidate Mary Peltola tried to confuse voters in her fight against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan by recruiting a second candidate with the same name.

在共和党形势严峻的选举季里,《纽约时报》的爆炸性报道在周三创造了一个难得的机会,将中期选举的叙事从特朗普糟糕的支持率、高昂的汽油价格和不得人心的伊朗战争上引开。

In a grim election season for Republicans, the New York Times bombshell created a rare chance Wednesday to turn the midterm election narrative away from Trump’s woeful approval ratings, high gasoline prices and the unpopular Iran war.

这种所谓的选举策略虽然卑鄙且不尊重选民,但根据目前可获得的证据,似乎并不违法。而阿拉斯加人曾在丽莎·穆尔科斯基参议员初选失利后,通过写入她的名字让她成功连任,他们是一群精明的选民,不太可能被允许多方角逐大选的不寻常投票制度搞混。

The alleged electoral gamesmanship, while shabby and disrespectful to voters, doesn’t seem to be illegal based on current available evidence. And Alaskans, who once voted to reelect Sen. Lisa Murkowski by writing in her name after she lost a primary, are a savvy bunch not likely to be confused by an unusual voting system that allows multi-way general election contests.

但特朗普多年来一直在编造关于民主党作弊和不存在的选举欺诈的虚假阴谋论。如今,他终于有了一个数据点,可以将其塑造成一个暗示性的叙事。无论原版丹·沙利文赢或输,总统都肯定会强调阿拉斯加的花招,以声称各地民主党人都腐败——尤其是如果共和党在周二惨败的话。

But Trump has spent years spinning false conspiracies about Democratic cheating and nonexistent electoral fraud. Now, at last he has a data point to sculpt into a suggestive narrative. And whether the OG Dan Sullivan wins or loses, the president will be sure to highlight shenanigans in Alaska to claim Democrats everywhere are corrupt — especially if the GOP bombs on Tuesday.

“这是最高级别的选民欺诈……这种行为在我们的选举中不能被允许继续下去,”特朗普在Truth Social上写道,为选举日预热,同时呼吁佩尔托拉“被从选票上移除并受到起诉”。阿拉斯加选举官员周三告诉CNN,特朗普政府在决定谁有资格参加该州选举方面没有任何角色。“将候选人列入选票是州法律管辖的事项,而非联邦法律,”发言人萨姆·柯蒂斯说。

“This is Voter Fraud at the Highest Level … this behavior in our Elections cannot be allowed to continue,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, warming up for Election Day, while calling for Peltola to be “removed from the ballot and prosecuted.”Alaska election officials told CNN Wednesday that there’s no role for the Trump administration in deciding who gets to run in the state’s election. “Placing candidates on the ballot is a matter of state law, not federal law,” said spokesperson Sam Curtis.

但在政治中,与法律不同,认知长期以来与现实一样重要。特朗普比任何一位现代总统都更本能地理解这一点。

But in politics, as opposed to the law, perception has long been as important as reality. Trump understands this more instinctively than any modern president.

佩尔托拉的竞选团队否认在招募第二个丹·沙利文的过程中存在任何不当行为。许多民主党人很可能会认为阿拉斯加的这一举动属于合理的竞选手段——甚至可能将其视为证据,表明他们党内沉寂多年的“硬骨头”精神已冲破冻土层。

Peltola’s campaign has denied any wrongdoing in the recruiting of the second Dan Sullivan. And many Democrats are likely to see the antics in Alaska as fair game — and perhaps even as evidence that their party’s intestinal fortitude, in hibernation for years, has broken through the frozen tundra.

唐纳德·特朗普总统于2026年10月28日在位于马里兰州的安德鲁斯联合基地登上“空军一号”前对记者讲话。 Mark Schiefelbein/美联社President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One on October 28, 2026, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland. Mark Schiefelbein/AP

当然,特朗普的愤怒颇具讽刺意味。毕竟,他在2020年试图推翻整场总统大选,包括要求佐治亚州选举官员“找到”足够多的选票,将这个摇摆州的胜利收入囊中。

And, of course, Trump’s outrage is rather rich. After all, he tried to junk an entire presidential election in 2020, including with his request that Georgia election officials “find” sufficient votes to hand him the swing state.

然而,共和党人将辩称,民主党人——在警告特朗普正围攻民主之后——却成了伪君子。在当下这种你来我往、拳脚相加的政治气候中,这不可避免。周三晚间,保守派媒体已开始循环播放关于阿拉斯加民主党“肮脏伎俩”的报道。任何新手策略师都可能试图利用这一故事激怒阿拉斯加选民、遏制佩尔托拉的声势;将佩尔托拉可能的胜利贴上“非法”标签;并助长“所有政客都腐败”的观念,以此让特朗普长期以来的干预行径显得如同寻常公事。

Republicans, however, will argue that Democrats — after warning democracy is under siege by Trump — are hypocrites. That’s inevitable in a rough-knocks political climate. Conservative media Wednesday evening was already looping on Democratic “dirty tricks” in Alaska. Any novice strategist could try to exploit the story to anger Alaskans and stall Peltola’s momentum; brand a possible Peltola victory as illegitimate; and foster the idea that all politicians are corrupt in order to make Trump’s long history of meddling seem like business as usual.

参议员沙利文周三晚间在福克斯新闻频道肖恩·汉尼蒂的节目中表示,是时候让他的民主党对手“坦白从宽”了。

Sen. Sullivan told Sean Hannity Wednesday evening on Fox News that it was time for his Democratic opponent to “come clean.”

“她才是那个腐败的人,勾结华盛顿内部人士欺骗阿拉斯加人,”参议员沙利文说。“所以我们要做的是,确保每一位阿拉斯加人都知道这件事。” 选举阴谋诡计自托马斯·杰斐逊1800年与总统约翰·亚当斯的激烈竞选以来,便一直是美国政治故事的一部分。但这对美国民主的信心而言,是毁灭性的十年。特朗普关于他在2020年被窃取权力的虚假指控,成为了他2024年成功竞选总统的基石,表明他的数千万支持者买账了他的虚假阴谋论。特朗普任命的人选至今仍须装模作样,坚称乔·拜登总统并未赢得那场大选。

“She’s the corrupt one working with DC insiders to trick Alaskans,” Sen. Sullivan said. “So what we’re going to do is we’re going to make sure every single Alaskan knows about this.”Election skulduggery has been part of America’s political story ever since Thomas Jefferson’s bitter 1800 election campaign against President John Adams. But this has been a devastating decade for faith in American democracy. Trump’s false claims that he was cheated out of power in 2020 became the foundation of his successful 2024 presidential run, suggesting many of his tens of millions of supporters bought into his false conspiracy theories. Trump appointees must still adopt the charade that President Joe Biden didn’t win that election.

而在大选日前几天,总统又在玩惯用伎俩,宣称只有在他认定中期选举公平的情况下,才会承认选举结果。如果共和党失去国会两院多数席位,而特朗普为了保全面子声称舞弊,人们对选举制度的信任将进一步受损,这似乎已成定局。如果民主党在阿拉斯加玩阴招,他们也难辞其咎。大选日前后还将出现更迫切的问题。

And the president is up to his usual tricks days before Election Day, declaring that he’ll only recognize the result of the midterms if he considers them fair. A further blow to trust in the election system seems inevitable if Republicans lose their congressional majorities and Trump claims fraud to save face. And if Democrats played shady games in Alaska, they’ll deserve some of the blame. There are more immediate questions that will play out before and after Election Day.

阿拉斯加选民将难以分清各位丹·沙利文这一观点,已在六月因州最高法院的一项裁决而站不住脚:法院拒绝将退休教师丹尼尔·J·沙利文从选票上移除,该选票上也有参议员丹·S·沙利文的名字。而且选票清楚地标明后者是共和党“现任议员”。同时,一些专家认为,阿拉斯加的排序复选制——特朗普曾多次猛烈抨击这一制度——最终会将本意投给参议员丹·沙利文的选票引导给其真正的获得者。

The idea that Alaskans will struggle to tell the Dan Sullivans apart was undermined by a state Supreme Court ruling in June that declined to have Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher, removed from the ballot also featuring Sen. Dan. S. Sullivan. And the ballot paper clearly identifies the latter as the Republican “incumbent.”Some experts, meanwhile, believe that Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system — against which Trump has frequently railed — would eventually funnel votes meant for Sen. Dan Sullivan to their rightful recipient anyway.

《纽约时报》的报道及后续新闻报道引发的轩然大波,使得选民因选票而感到困惑的可能性更小了。那么法律层面的问题又如何?

The furor over the New York Times story and follow-up news coverage makes it even less likely voters will be befuddled by their ballot. What then of the legal question?

司法部奉特朗普之命,已提起诉讼,要求在参议员沙利文落选的情况下,阻止阿拉斯加参议员选举结果的认证——尽管宪法赋予联邦政府和总统在管理州选举方面没有任何角色。

The Department of Justice, acting on Trump’s orders, had already filed suit to block certification of the Senate result in Alaska should Sen. Sullivan lose — even though the Constitution gives the federal government and the president no role in administering state elections.

2026年10月23日,阿拉斯加安克雷奇展示的一份选举样本选票。 Haven Daley/美联社A sample election ballot is displayed in Anchorage, Alaska, on October 23, 2026. Haven Daley/AP

司法部长托德·布兰奇周三迅速挥舞《纽约时报》的报道,释放出将加剧法律斗争的信号。在福克斯新闻节目中被问及“最后边疆”州(阿拉斯加)的候选人闹剧是否违法时,他回答:“这当然应该违法。这就是为什么会有调查,也是为什么我们有执法部门。”但人们不会因为某事“应该”违法而实际上并不违法就被起诉。如果调查发现竞选中存在不法活动,将依据现行州法或联邦法启动法律程序。但根据目前的证据,尚无迹象表明此处适用这种情况。

Attorney General Todd Blanche on Wednesday quickly brandished the New York Times report to signal an intensified legal battle. Asked on Fox News whether the candidate drama in the Last Frontier state was illegal, he answered, “It certainly should be. That’s why there’s an investigation, and that’s why we have law enforcement.”But people are not prosecuted for something that “should be” illegal and isn’t. If a probe turns up nefarious activity in the race, there will be a case for a legal process under existing state or federal laws. But there’s no sign yet that’s applicable here based on current evidence.

“毫无疑问,这对(佩尔托拉)竞选团队来说极其笨拙且尴尬,”知名选举律师本·金斯伯格周三在CNN主持人凯西·亨特的节目中说。“但这里不存在违法行为。无论好坏,实际上是坏事,捏造虚假候选人、幽灵候选人,两党大概都做过。”但渺茫的胜算从未阻止特朗普之前发起法律挑战和上诉。苏利文参议员有权根据选举法寻求任何法律救济。但总统擅长发起琐碎的法律挑战以拖延不利后果。如果选民在中期选举中给予惩罚,阿拉斯加风波必将持续发酵。

“There’s no question that this is remarkably politically clumsy and embarrassing for (the Peltola) campaign,” Ben Ginsberg, a renowned election lawyer, told CNN’s Kasie Hunt on Wednesday. “But there’s not an illegality here. And for better or for worse, and actually for worse, coming up with phantom candidates, ghost candidates, is something both parties have probably done.”But long odds never stopped Trump legal challenges and appeals before. Sen. Sullivan is entitled to any legal remedies under election laws. But the president has a particular flair for mounting frivolous legal challenges to delay undesirable consequences. If voters deliver a rebuke in the midterms, the Alaska affair is certain to run and run.

金斯伯格并未完全排除一种极端情形:明年新参议员到场宣誓就职时,对佩尔托拉的任何胜利提出挑战。这将引发轩然大波,进一步毒化本已恶毒的国会山氛围。但特朗普2020年的表现表明,他可能愿意死磕到底。如果目前由共和党把持的阿拉斯加参议员席位决定参议院控制权——这是一种合理的设想——混乱极有可能爆发。

Ginsberg didn’t completely rule out the extraordinary scenario of a challenge to any Peltola victory when new senators arrive to be seated in the new Congress next year. This would stoke uproar and further poison an already toxic Capitol Hill. But Trump’s conduct in 2020 shows he may be willing to go the mat. And should the currently GOP-held Alaska seat decide who controls the Senate — a plausible scenario — it’s not hard to imagine that chaos could erupt.

阿拉斯加联邦参议员竞选候选人丹·沙利文于2026年7月3日在彼得斯堡市中心附近的一个欢迎标志前交谈,他与寻求连任的现任参议员同名。 Becky Bohrer/美联社Dan Sullivan, a candidate in Alaska's US Senate race who shares a name with the incumbent seeking reelection, talks in front of a welcome sign near downtown Petersburg on July 3, 2026. Becky Bohrer/AP

一些民主党人可能会质疑所谓的丹·沙利文“购物狂欢”究竟有何意义,这件事正给一场佩尔托拉似乎处于有利位置的竞选的最后阶段蒙上阴影。在周六公布的《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调中,这位民主党人以 51% 对 45% 领先沙利文。

Some Democrats may question the point of the alleged Dan Sullivan shopping spree that’s now casting a shadow over the endgame of a race in which Peltola seems well positioned. In a New York Times/Siena poll on Saturday, the Democrat held a 51 to 45% lead over Sullivan.

但共和党现在有了一个现成的新竞选叙事——民主党赢不了公平的选举。“他们试图混淆选民,试图作弊,因为他们知道自己的政策议程根本不适合阿拉斯加人,”前特朗普顾问布莱恩·兰扎周三在《杰克·塔珀主持的《主场直击》节目中轻松打出这个“空心球”。

But Republicans now have an easy new campaign conceit — Democrats can’t win a fair election. “They’re trying to confuse voters, they’re trying to cheat because they know their policy agenda just doesn’t work for people in Alaska,” said Bryan Lanza, a former Trump adviser, effortlessly executing the layup on “The Lead with Jake Tapper” Wednesday.

很难实时判断“两个丹·沙利文”案件的这一新转折将如何影响这场激烈竞选的最后几小时。确实不太可能有大量选民突然改变偏好。

It’s hard to judge in real time how this new twist in the case of the two Dan Sullivans influences the final hours of the bitter campaign. It does seem unlikely that vast numbers of voters will sudden switch their preferences.

但阿拉斯加人可能会给出一个明确的结果,由他们决定想要谁担任他们的资深参议员。在一个民主国家,尤其是像美国这样最近经受考验且遭受践踏的民主国家,这正是应有的方式。

But Alaskans could deliver an unequivocal result, and it’s up to them to decide who they want as their junior senator. In a democracy, especially in one as recently tested and abused as America’s, that’s exactly how it should be.

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