一场“十月惊奇”在一场可能决定下周中期选举参议院多数党归属的竞选中浮出水面。
An October surprise has surfaced in a race that could well determine who wins the Senate majority in next week’s midterm elections.
《纽约时报》的一项调查证实了一个被广泛怀疑但从未被证实的事实：民主党在阿拉斯加参议员丹·沙利文的潜在“搅局候选人”背后操作——这位同名候选人已获得大选选票资格。
An investigation by the New York Times confirms something that’s been widely suspected but never proven: that Democrats were behind a potential spoiler candidate in Alaska — the Dan Sullivan — who qualified for the general election ballot.
这在阿拉斯加参议院竞选中究竟有多大影响，理由不一。但或许更引人注目的是：考虑到潜在回报微乎其微，民主党为何最初认为推出这样一名候选人值得冒险。首先来看《纽约时报》报道的细节。
There are plenty of reasons why this may or may not ultimately matter in the Alaska Senate race. But perhaps more striking is the question of why Democrats would think putting up such a candidate was a risk worth taking in the first place, given how little potential payoff it gives them. First, the details of the Times story.
报告称，民主党提名人玛丽·佩尔托拉的工作人员和律师，以及与其竞选团队结盟的其他操盘手，花费数月时间招募候选人，希望他们能分走共和党参议员丹·沙利文的选票。这项工作包括寻找与该参议员同名的人选。
Staffers and lawyers for Democratic nominee Mary Peltola and other operatives aligned with the campaign spent months recruiting candidates they hoped could take votes away from GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, the newspaper reported. That effort included finding people who shared the senator’s name.
最终，他们成功让小丹尼尔·J·沙利文参选，并通过在八月初选中跻身前四名，获得了排序选择制大选的资格。
Eventually, they were able to get Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. into the race, and he qualified for the ranked-choice general election by finishing in the top four in the August primary.
证实该报道的人员包括佩尔托拉的前竞选经理兼长期助手，她在八月竞选团队改组期间被解雇。埃莉萨·里奥斯表示，佩尔托拉本人并未直接参与，但“绝对知情”。该报道与佩尔托拉竞选团队和民主党参议院竞选委员会此前否认参与招募小丹尼尔·J·沙利文的说法相矛盾——双方均未回应《纽约时报》的提问，但再次否认涉事。
Among those confirming the story is Peltola’s former campaign manager and longtime aide, who was fired in August during an overhaul of the campaign. Elisa Rios said Peltola herself wasn’t directly involved but was “definitely aware.”The reporting contradicts previous denials of any role in recruiting Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. by the Peltola campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee — neither of which responded to the Times’ questions but again denied involvement.
民主党参议院竞选委员会同样告诉CNN，它“未参与丹·J·沙利文的事务”。佩尔托拉竞选团队未立即回应CNN的置评请求。
The DSCC similarly told CNN that it is “not involved with Dan J. Sullivan.”The Peltola campaign did not immediately respond to CNN’s request for comment.
从道德角度来看，这个故事相当令人震惊。这不仅可能被可信地称为欺骗选民的企图，而且新的报道严重削弱了民主党此前——以及持续至今——的否认。
From a moral standpoint, the story is pretty damning. Not only could the whole effort credibly be called an attempt to deceive voters, but the new reporting sharply undercuts Democrats’ previous — and ongoing — denials.
诚然，这在政治中绝非首次发生——如今，干预对手的初选以期望其提名一名竞争力较弱的候选人，已成为一种相当流行的策略。
To be sure, it’s hardly the first time something like this has happened in politics — it’s become a fairly popular tactic these days to meddle in the other side’s primary in hopes that it will nominate a less-electable candidate.
本周期，一个与共和党结盟的超级政治行动委员会也在俄亥俄州参议院竞选中花钱推广一名社会主义第三党候选人。
A GOP-aligned super PAC this cycle has also spent money to promote a socialist third-party candidate in the Ohio Senate race.
阿拉斯加的排序复选制也迅速演变为确保进入大选选票的第三、四名候选人与对手拥有相同党派归属的努力。外部团体花费巨资捧红完全不为人知的政治素人——包括一名以民主党人身份参选、目前正在服刑且从未去过阿拉斯加的男子，此人由共和党推广。
Alaska’s ranked-choice system has also quickly devolved into efforts to ensure the third and fourth candidates who make the general election ballot share party affiliations with opponents. Outside groups have spent significant sums to elevate complete political unknowns — including a man running as a Democrat who is currently serving in prison and who has never been to Alaska, whom Republicans have promoted.
但试图以误导方式影响选民现有的选择，与试图直接安插一名旨在迷惑选民的候选人，是两码事。而能直接追溯到据称幕后操纵的竞选团队，这种情况实属罕见。阿拉斯加选民对此感到不满，这是可以理解的。
But it’s one thing to try to influence voters’ existing choices in a misleading way; it’s another to try to directly plant a candidate whose purpose is to confuse voters. And it’s rare to see that traced directly to the campaign that’s reportedly behind it. It’s understandable if Alaska voters resent that.
这一论点的另一面是，这种看法可能早已根深蒂固——选民早已认定是民主党在背后操纵。鉴于该州排序复选制中充斥着如此多的博弈手段，或许他们早已习以为常。
The flipside of that argument is that this perception might already be baked-in — that voters already Democrats were behind it. Perhaps they’re just used to it all by now, given how much gamesmanship there has been with the state’s ranked-choice system.
佩尔托拉在竞选中也已面临一些非常棘手的负面新闻。这既包括初选前夕8月份的员工大换血，也包括《纽约时报》的另一项调查，聚焦于员工指控她有愤怒和粗鲁的爆发行为，其中包含针对同性恋者和智力障碍者的侮辱性语言。
Peltola has also already dealt with some very tough headlines in the race. That includes both the August staff shake-up right before the primary, and also another Times investigation centered on staff accusing her of angry and profane outbursts that included slurs for gay people and people with intellectual disabilities.
这些新闻周期似乎并未给佩尔托拉造成损害。一个月前，《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的一项民调显示，在可能投票者中，她以7个百分点领先参议员沙利文——这与初选日她以8个百分点领先沙利文的情况相似。
Those news cycles didn’t seem to cost Peltola. A New York Times/Siena poll a month ago showed her leading Sen. Sullivan among likely voters by 7 points — similar to the 8 points she led Sullivan by on primary day.
该民调还显示，即使在负面报道之后，选民对佩尔托拉的好感度仍为50%比42%。
That poll also showed voters still liked Peltola 50%-42%, even after the negative coverage.
这些领先优势在此也很重要。虽然大选谁会投票仍不清楚，阿拉斯加普遍被视为势均力敌的战场，但该民调和初选日显示的佩尔托拉领先优势都很显著。这表明，即使部分选民突然对她产生反感，她或许也能经受住考验。
Those margins are also important here. While it’s still unclear who will vote in the general election and Alaska is generally viewed as a tossup, Peltola’s leads in that poll and on primary day have been significant. They suggest she might be able to withstand it even if some voters suddenly balk at her.
最后，还有大量选民已经……投票了。截至本周早些时候，已有近6万人提前投票或缺席投票。这超过了近期中期选举总投票人数的五分之一。
And finally, there’s the fact that lots of voters have simply … already voted. Nearly 60,000 people had already voted early or absentee as of early this week. That’s more than one-fifth of the total turnout in recent midterm elections.
无论如何，这份新报告给佩尔托拉的竞选蒙上了一层阴影。而特别引人注目的是，另一位丹·沙利文的参选竟极不可能产生实质影响。
Regardless, the new report is a stain on Peltola’s candidacy. And what’s particularly remarkable about it is how unlikely the other Dan Sullivan’s candidacy ever was to matter.
正如我在8月所写，丹尼尔·J·沙利文二世不太可能从参议员丹·沙利文那里分流足够多的选民以真正改变结果。这很大程度上是因为该州的排序复选制允许任何感到困惑的选民同时给两人排序，其选票最终会算给这位参议员。
As I wrote back in August, it was unlikely Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. would ever take enough voters from Sen. Dan Sullivan to truly make the difference. That’s in large part because the state’s ranked-choice system allows anybody who is confused to rank both of them, and have their vote eventually count for the senator.
要让丹尼尔·J·沙利文二世产生影响，选民必须投票给他并“耗尽”其选票，而不同时投票给参议员丹·沙利文——或者将这位参议员排在佩尔托拉之后。
For Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. to matter, people would have to vote for him and “exhaust” their ballot without also voting for Sen. Dan Sullivan — or rank the senator behind Peltola.
部分选民可能会这么做。但丹尼尔·J·沙利文二世在初选中得票寥寥（2.5%），且他的许多选民似乎是希望他在大选中参选的佩尔托拉支持者。大选必须极其胶着，他才可能起决定性作用。
Some voters might do that. But Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. took few votes in the primary (2.5%), and many of his voters appeared to be Peltola supporters who wanted him in the general election. The general election would have to be exceedingly close for him to make the difference.
此外：参议员丹·沙利文是选票上唯一标注为共和党人和现任者的候选人。
Also: Sen. Dan Sullivan is the only one listed on the ballot as a Republican and as the incumbent.
正因如此，这些新披露最终可能对佩尔托拉造成的伤害，大于另一位沙利文的候选身份所带来的帮助——即使它不会把事情推向任何一方的极端。
Because of all of that, the new revelations could now wind up hurting Peltola more than the other Sullivan’s candidacy helps — even if it doesn’t push things too far either way.
而且你可以肯定，你会从总统唐纳德·特朗普那里听到大量相关言论，他的司法部已经通过一场相当可疑的诉讼试图将此问题提上议程。
And you can bet you’ll hear plenty about it from President Donald Trump, whose Justice Department is already seeking to elevate this issue with a rather dubious lawsuit.
特朗普无需邀请（或实际证据）就指责民主党作弊。民主党人在这里给了他可乘之机。
Trump needs no invitation (or actual evidence) to accuse Democrats of cheating. The Democrats have given him something to work with here.