根据世界银行的一项新研究预测，到2050年，非洲将拥有五个大城市，安哥拉首都卢安达有望取代尼日利亚的拉各斯，成为非洲最大的大都市。
Africa is set to host five megacities by 2050 and Lagos is likely to be overtaken by Angola’s Luanda as the continent’s biggest metropolis.
预测显示，马里首都巴马科的人口将在未来25年内增长80%，达到760万；索马里首都摩加迪沙人口将激增64%——这两座城市都将跻身前15名。
Predictions in a new World Bank study suggest the population of the Malian capital Bamako will grow by 80% over the next 25 years to 7.6 million, while the number of people in Mogadishu, Somalia, will surge by 64% — moving both of them into the top 15.
刚果民主共和国首都金沙萨、坦桑尼亚的达累斯萨拉姆和埃塞俄比亚首都亚的斯亚贝巴的人口都将超过1000万，符合大城市的普遍定义。卢安达的人口可能突破2000万。
The Democratic Republic of Congo’s Kinshasa, Dar es Salaam in Tanzania and Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, will all house more than 10 million people, the generally accepted definition of a megacity. Luanda’s population may top 20 million.
该地区正经历前所未有的城市化激增。世界银行预测，到2050年，撒哈拉以南非洲城市人口将增加3.2亿，达到8.23亿；若加上城郊地区和城镇，总数将升至17亿。
The region is going through an unprecedented surge in urbanization. The World Bank forecasts that by 2050 the number of people living in cities in sub-Saharan Africa will increase by 320 million to 823 million, rising to 1.7 billion people when peri-urban areas and towns are included.
阅读：世界银行警告糟糕的城市规划威胁非洲未来城市 在较早实现城市化的国家，如南非，城市排名将下滑。
Read: World Bank Warns Poor Urban Planning Threatens Africa’s Future Cities in countries that urbanized earlier, such as South Africa, will slip down the rankings.
虽然约翰内斯堡人口将从710万增至890万，但到那时它将成为撒哈拉以南非洲第八大城市，而非目前的第五位。开普敦目前以约450万人口排名第15位，届时将不再跻身最大城市行列。
While Johannesburg’s population will climb to 8.9 million from 7.1 million it will by then be sub-Saharan Africa’s eighth biggest city as opposed to 5th today. Cape Town, 15th now with about 4.5 million people, will no longer be ranked as among the largest.
这家总部位于华盛顿的贷款机构和欧盟委员会联合研究中心采用比行政边界更宽泛的定义，以捕捉城市蔓延的真实范围，对非洲城市的当前规模进行了评估。南非统计局2022年人口普查报告称，约翰内斯堡人口为480万，该数字不包括伊库鲁莱尼等单独行政区，后者拥有主要机场。
The African cities’ current sizes were assessed by the Washington-based lender and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre using a broader definition than municipal boundaries to capture the extent of urban sprawl. In its 2022 census report, South Africa’s statistics agency said Johannesburg had a population of 4.8 million, a number that excluded areas such as Ekurhuleni, a separate municipality that’s home to the main airport.