作为唐纳德·特朗普总统领导下的美国外交政策的隐喻，五角大楼里那个地球仪的命运简直再完美不过了。它可能也暗示了在期中选举之后，谁将在国家安全领域扮演何种角色。
As a metaphor for American foreign policy under President Donald Trump, the fate of the globe in the Pentagon is almost too perfect. It might also provide a hint about who will play what kind of role in national security after the midterm elections.
这个工艺品曾经属于德怀特·艾森豪威尔，他作为将军、政治家和总统，曾收藏过落地式地球仪。其中几个存放在五角大楼里，国防部长皮特·海格塞斯决定在他的办公室里放一个。他无视了馆长和文件手续，派了一个团队去取这个地球仪。但他们把它摔了，使地球仪撞到了底座上（靠近南极洲）。
The artifact used to belong to Dwight Eisenhower, who as general, statesman and president collected floor globes. A couple were stored in the Pentagon, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth decided he wanted one in his office. Ignoring curators and paperwork, he sent a team to fetch the globe. But they dropped it, impaling the globe onto its base (near Antarctica).
于是，这个世界——或者说这个复制品——就被毁了：因为权力凌驾于程序和礼仪之上，而蛮力又缺乏处理珍贵事物所需的技巧和远见。
And so the world — or this replica — was ruined: because power overrode process and decorum, and because brute force lacked the finesse and foresight to handle something precious.
如果这是在好莱坞，海格塞斯将与这个角色百分之百契合。（特朗普本人就狂热地称海格塞斯是“演员库精选”）。这位自称为“战争部长”的人痴迷于“杀伤力”、雄性激素和俯卧撑。他像一个十字军战士一样（身上的纹身证明了这一点），与军队中的觉醒文化作斗争；解雇或降职任何他不喜欢的人；并且从未见过他不想轰炸的民用走私毒品船。
If this were Hollywood, Hegseth would fit the role to a T. (Trump himself raves that Hegseth is “central casting.”) The “secretary of war,” as he calls himself, is obsessed with “lethality,” testosterone and push-ups. He fights like a crusader (with the tattoos to prove it) against wokeness in the military; fires or demotes anyone he doesn’t like; and has never seen a civilian drug-smuggling boat he doesn’t want to bomb.
最重要的是，海格塞斯是除了总统之外，最常被与大肆宣扬美国对伊朗战争所谓“胜利”联系在一起的内阁官员，这场冲突不仅看似无法取胜，而且在美国人中间依然极其不受欢迎，期中选举很可能会表明这一点。
Above all, Hegseth is the cabinet official, next to the president, most associated with hyping the alleged triumphs of America’s war against Iran, a conflict that not only seems unwinnable but also remains deeply unpopular with Americans, as the midterms are likely to show.
因此，如果民主党人在期中选举中夺取了国会的一个甚至两个院，海格塞斯就可以预料到会有大麻烦。他们已经表示，他们打算让海格塞斯接受残酷的证词质询，并在特朗普不首先解雇他的情况下对其实施弹劾。
As a result, Hegseth can expect big trouble if Democrats take one or even both chambers of Congress in the midterms. They’ve already said that they intend to subject Hegseth to grueling testimony and to impeach him if Trump doesn’t fire him first.
弹劾不太可能在参议院获得定罪（这需要绝对多数）。但民主党人可以扣留资金。一些共和党人也可能会加入他们的行列，因为相当多的共和党人对海格塞斯的厌恶同样充满激情。
Impeachment would be unlikely to lead to conviction in the Senate (which would require a supermajority). But Democrats could withhold funds. And some Republicans might join them, because quite a few loathe Hegseth just as passionately.
特朗普喜欢赫格塞斯，正如前五角大楼发言人在新书中所言，他可能会得出结论：“总统值得更好的人选”，从而让赫格塞斯离职。他大概会给赫格塞斯安排另一个不需要参议院批准的职位。
Trump, who likes Hegseth, may conclude, as a new book by a former Pentagon spokesman puts it, that “the president deserves better” and let Hegseth go. He’d probably get him some other job that doesn’t require Senate confirmation.
但赫格塞斯只是这个政府外交和安全政策的漫画形象，而真正日复一日落实政策的人是史蒂夫·威特科夫——一位房地产开发商、特朗普的老友，以及贾里德·库什纳——总统的女婿。作为特使，他们的权力和合法性源于与特朗普的亲近关系。作为临时外交官，威特科夫和库什纳以其外行作风、无能、腐败和道德虚无主义而突出。
But Hegseth is only the cartoon of this administration’s foreign and security policy, whereas the people implementing day by day are Steve Witkoff, a real-estate developer and long-time Trump bestie, and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law. As special envoys, they derive their power and legitimacy from their proximity to Trump. As ad hoc diplomats, Witkoff and Kushner stand out for their amateurism, incompetence, corruption and moral nihilism.
他们处理任何冲突——从俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争，到以色列在加沙地带的行动，再到美国对伊朗的对抗——都仿佛在谈判房地产交易，往往伴随着对朋友或家人的隐性利益输送。
They approach any conflict — from Russia’s war against Ukraine to Israel’s in the Gaza Strip or America’s against Iran — as though they were negotiating real-estate deals, often with oblique boons to friends or family.
他们所谓的外交完全缺乏美国战略利益或道德原则的概念。近日，当特朗普向俄罗斯总统普京提出一系列令人震惊的让步时，威特科夫前往莫斯科，因普京是“人道主义者”而向其“致敬”，而普京因战争罪被海牙通缉。一个由民主党控制的新国会会给威特科夫和库什纳制造麻烦。（不过大概无法弹劾他们，因为不清楚他们是否算作美国“文职官员”。）在总统帮助下，他们会尽量减少在国会山露面的时间，不怕由此引发丑闻，因为他们的仕途取决于特朗普，而非选举政治。
Absent in their diplomacy, such as it is, is any notion of America’s strategic interest or moral principles. In recent days, as Trump offered Russian President Vladimir Putin a string of shocking concessions, Witkoff went to Moscow to “salute” Putin, who is wanted in The Hague for war crimes, for being a “humanitarian.”A new Congress controlled by Democrats would give Witkoff and Kushner a hard time. (It probably couldn’t impeach them, though, since it’s unclear whether they even count as “civil Officers” of the US.) Helped by the president, they would spend as little time on Capitol Hill as possible, unafraid of the resulting scandals, since their careers depend on Trump, not electoral politics.
当威特科夫和库什纳明显力不从心时，另一位介入外交的政府成员是副总统J·D·万斯。值得肯定的是，他似乎是唯一一位明确建议不要对伊朗开战的内阁成员。
Another administration member who has stepped into diplomacy when Witkoff and Kushner were too obviously flailing is Vice President JD Vance. To his credit, he seems to have been the only cabinet member who explicitly counseled against going to war against Iran.
为了不让万斯显得太好，特朗普在4月份派他的副总统去与伊朗人进行会谈，当时谈判似乎还有机会结束这场战争。这位总统的理由意味深长。“如果事情没有办成，我怪JD·万斯，”特朗普半开玩笑地说，“如果办成了，我全盘记功。”这就总结了万斯的困境：私下里，他可能反对特朗普的大部分外交政策；而在公开场合，随着他准备参加2028年的竞选，他现在不得不去为之辩护。
Lest that could make Vance look too good, Trump dispatched his veep to talks with the Iranians in April, when negotiations seemed to have a chance of ending the war. The president’s rationale was telling. “If it doesn’t happen, I’m blaming JD Vance,” Trump pretended to joke; “If it does happen, I’m taking full credit.”That sums up Vance’s bind: Privately, he probably opposes much of Trump’s foreign policy; publicly, he’s now stuck defending it, as he prepares to run in 2028.
这就剩下了特朗普外交政策顾问中最微妙、最狡猾（我这话可不是在夸奖）的一位：国务卿兼国家安全顾问马可·鲁比奥。唯一曾同时担任这两个职务的另一个人是亨利·基辛格。但鲁比奥绝不是基辛格。
That leaves the subtlest and slyest (and I don’t mean that as a compliment) among Trump’s foreign-policy counselors: Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio. The only other person to hold both offices simultaneously was Henry Kissinger. But Rubio is no Kissinger.
基辛格现在本会乘喷气式飞机穿梭于世界上最火药味十足的热点地区——乌克兰、海湾地区、红海和加沙，同时密切关注中国，即未来几年美国的主要对手。
Kissinger would now be jetting around the world’s most incendiary hotspots — in Ukraine, the Gulf, the Red Sea and Gaza — while keeping a wary eye on China, America’s main rival in the years to come.
鲁比奥则不然，他的行踪往往要么在物理位置上靠近总统（据说鲁比奥在西翼花的时间比在雾谷还要多），要么身处国外，但却在没有重大冲突的地方。
Not so Rubio, whose whereabouts tend to be either physically near the president (Rubio is said to spend more time in the West Wing than in Foggy Bottom) or abroad, but in places without major conflicts.
例如，鲁比奥最近去过的地方包括乌兹别克斯坦和印度，这两国在平时都很重要，但在总统的每日简报中绝对排不上头条。他去遍了拉丁美洲，在那里与总统喜欢的极右翼领导人交游（所以巴西目前不在其列），或者把委内瑞拉当成他的总督辖区来管理。他还曾在雅典卫谷和其他上镜的地点摆拍。
Rubio’s recent destinations include, for instance, Uzbekistan and India, both important in ordinary times but hardly top of the list in the president’s daily briefing. He’s been all over Latin America, where he hobnobs with far-right leaders the president likes (so Brazil is out for now) or runs Venezuela as if he were its viceroy. And he’s posed in front of the Acropolis and other photogenic venues.
前美国驻北约大使伊沃·达尔德观察到：“无论哪项政策进展不顺，他的存在感就很低。”达尔德认为，鲁比奥乐于把伊朗、加沙和乌克兰交给威特科夫和库什纳，把中国交给财政部长斯科特·贝森特，因为他“在刻意避开那些可能以悲剧收场的政策”。原因显而易见：鲁比奥同样在考虑参加2028年的竞选。
“Wherever a policy is going badly, his profile is low,” observes Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO. Rubio is happy to leave Iran, Gaza and Ukraine to Witkoff and Kushner, Daalder thinks, and China to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, because he’s “keeping clear of policies likely to end badly.”The reason is obvious: Rubio too is thinking of running in 2028.
很难夸大鲁比奥的愤世嫉俗。当他是参议员时，他满口鹰派且原则性的言论：反对克里姆林宫、中国和其他专制政权，支持北约和自由民主。他主张人道主义援助和移民（他自己的父母来自古巴）。
It’s hard to exaggerate Rubio’s cynicism. While he was a senator, he talked a hawkish and principled game: against the Kremlin, China and other autocracies, and for NATO and liberal democracy. He was for humanitarian aid and immigration (his own parents came from Cuba).
如今，他对俄罗斯和中国鲜有批评，传递特朗普对北约的不满，扼杀外国援助，眼睁睁看着移民与海关执法局（ICE）特工抓捕移民。为了讨好特朗普的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）基本盘，他还对海牙的国际刑事法院发动了一场不必要且怪诞的毁灭性运动。
Nowadays he has little to say against Russia and China, channels Trump’s frustration with NATO, throttles foreign aid and looks on as ICE agents round up migrants. Trying to please Trump’s MAGA base, he’s also gone on an unnecessary and bizarre campaign of destruction against the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
至于中期选举？一旦共和党人把特朗普视为跛脚鸭，“你可能会看到一些两党立法的雏形，针对那些让人如此担忧的外国冲突，”汤姆·香农告诉我。他在特朗普第一任期前两年担任国务院高级官员。但“很多东西将保持不变，总统的好斗特质将变得更加明显。”这对乌克兰、中东和其他地方（包括台湾）都不妙，因为美国现在把中国视作商业机会。仿佛一个脆弱的地球正被运往未知的目的地，掌舵的是不学无术且反复无常的手。
And the midterms? Once Republicans see Trump as a lame duck, “you might see the beginnings of some bipartisan legislation around these foreign conflicts that have got people so worried,” Tom Shannon told me. He was a top official in the State Department through the first two years of Trump I. But “a lot will stay the same, and the president's pugnacious qualities will become more apparent.”That bodes ill for Ukraine, the Middle East and other places, including Taiwan, now that America is treating China as a business opportunity. It’s as though a fragile globe were being transported to an unknown destination, in unschooled and volatile hands.
鲁比奥若延续现状，将眼睁睁看着这颗地球在途中颠簸，却不伸手稳住它。在当今的政治文化和他自己的算计里，这或许会让他更有希望有朝一日成为总统。在任何健康的体制里，这都足以让他丧失资格。
Rubio, if he stays on form, will watch this globe in transit but do nothing to steady it. In today’s political culture and his own calculus, that may make him more likely to become president one day. In any healthy system, it would disqualify him.