一场强烈的厄尔尼诺现象可能会在今冬给美国全国的电力供需带来重大转变，给公用事业公司带来新的挑战。
A powerful El Niño could bring major shifts in electricity supply and demand across the U.S. this winter, posing new challenges for utilities. Why it matters:
意义何在：与上一次发生重大厄尔尼诺现象时相比，美国电网如今拥有多得多的太阳能、风能和电池储能，而当前正在发生的这场厄尔尼诺现象可能会揭示，这种不断变化的能源结构是让电网更有韧性，还是让其面临新的脆弱性。
The U.S. power grid has far more solar, wind and battery storage than during the last major El Niño, and the ongoing event could reveal whether that changing energy mix has made the grid more resilient or left it vulnerable in new ways.
推动新闻的因素：美国国家海洋和大气管理局表示，一场非常强烈的厄尔尼诺现象正在热带太平洋加强，预计将持续到2027年春季。
Driving the news: A very strong is strengthening in the tropical Pacific and is expected to continue into spring 2027, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says.
- 美国国家海洋和大气管理局最新的预测显示，今年冬天，加利福尼亚州、西南部以及美国南部大部分地区的天气将比正常情况更湿润，而北部落基山脉和五大湖部分地区则倾向于更干燥，美国北部大部分地区倾向于更温暖。
• NOAA's latest outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions across California, the Southwest and much of the southern U.S. this winter, while the northern Rockies and parts of the Great Lakes lean drier and much of the northern U.S. leans warmer.
引人关注之处：厄尔尼诺现象对各种电力资源的影响并不完全相同。
The intrigue: El Niño doesn't affect every electricity resource the same way.
- 一项3月的研究发现，在过去的超级厄尔尼诺现象期间，加州部分地区的潜在太阳能发电量在12个月内减少了近5%，而该州北部在冬季则减少了10%以上。
• A March study found that previous super El Niños were associated with reductions in potential solar power output of nearly 5% in parts of California over 12 months — and more than 10% in the state's north during winter.
- 太平洋西北国家实验室首席科学家文森特·蒂德韦尔表示，加州更湿润的冬季可能会促进水力发电，而太平洋西北地区降水或积雪减少则可能会削减那里的发电量。
• Vincent Tidwell, chief scientist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, says a wetter California winter could boost hydropower, while reduced precipitation or snowpack in the Pacific Northwest could cut generation there.
- 电力研究所气候科学家埃里克·史密斯对《Axios》表示，由于厄尔尼诺现象倾向于带来多云天气，东南部是另一个需要关注太阳能发电减少的地区。
• Erik Smith, a climate scientist at the Electric Power Research Institute, tells Axios the Southeast is another region to watch for reduced solar generation as El Niño favors cloudier conditions.
加利福尼亚州目前拥有超过21吉瓦的电池容量，这为电网管理电力供应波动提供了又一个工具——而在上一次发生非常强烈的厄尔尼诺现象时，加州几乎不具备这一工具。
California now has more than 21 gigawatts of battery capacity giving the grid another tool to manage fluctuations in electricity supply — one it barely possessed during the last very strong El Niño.
- 根据太平洋西北国家实验室的一项分析，在2001年至2020年期间，哥伦比亚河流域和斯内克河流域的水力发电量约占美国西部水力发电量的62%。
• The Columbia and Snake river basins accounted for roughly 62% of Western U.S. hydropower generation between 2001 and 2020, according to a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory analysis.
- 蒂德韦尔对《Axios》表示，当水力发电条件不同时，西部电网习惯于在不同地区之间调配电力，这有助于弥补短缺。
• Tidwell tells Axios that the Western grid is accustomed to shifting electricity between regions when hydropower conditions differ, helping compensate for shortages.
- 蒂德韦尔说，联邦水务管理者、各州和公用事业公司利用季节性预测来规划科罗拉多河上胡佛大坝和格伦峡谷大坝的潜在水力发电可用性。
• Federal water managers, states and utilities use seasonal forecasts to plan for potential hydropower availability at Hoover and Glen Canyon dams on the Colorado River, Tidwell says.
深入观察：蒂德韦尔预计，如果今冬厄尔尼诺现象减少了太平洋西北地区的水力发电量和加州的太阳能发电量，天然气将在备用角色中发挥更大作用。
Zoom in: Tidwell expects natural gas to play a larger backup role if El Niño reduces Pacific Northwest hydropower and California solar generation this winter.
- 风能、地热能和核能等其他资源提供了更多选择，不过他说，厄尔尼诺对风力发电的影响仍然知之甚少。
• Other resources, including wind, geothermal and nuclear power, provide additional options, though he says El Niño's effects on wind generation remain poorly understood.
大局观：史密斯表示，一场非常强烈的厄尔尼诺现象实际上可以缓解电力系统的一些压力。
The big picture: A very strong El Niño could actually ease some pressure on the electricity system, Smith says.
- 美国北部高于正常水平的温度可以减少冬季供暖需求，从而有可能抵消其他地方电力供应变化带来的一些压力。
• Warmer-than-normal conditions across the northern U.S. could reduce winter heating demand, potentially offsetting some of the pressure from changing electricity supplies elsewhere.
然而：
Yes, but:
- 即使是非常强烈的厄尔尼诺现象，也不能保证产生特定的天气影响。
Even a very strong El Niño doesn't guarantee specific weather impacts.
- 史密斯说，尽管冬季平均气温高于平均水平，但严重的寒潮仍然会对电网造成压力，而几场大风暴可能会彻底改变区域降雨量和积雪量。
• A severe cold outbreak could still stress the grid despite a warmer-than-average winter, while a few major storms could radically alter regional rainfall and snowpack, Smith says.
底线：“我们对平均情况的发展趋势很有信心，但对于可能推动这些平均情况的日常、每周的特定天气事件，我们并没有太大信心，”史密斯说。
The bottom line: "We have a lot of confidence in how the averages are going to play out, but we don't have a lot of confidence in the day-to-day, week-to-week, particular weather events that could drive those averages," Smith says.