Republicans are already privately blaming President Donald Trump as they brace for losses on Tuesday.

Even as they race to distance themselves from his actions on tariffs, the unpopular Iran war and his mass deportation agenda, few have been willing to criticize him publicly — a clear sign of just how powerful Trump's grip remains on the GOP. But interviews with roughly a dozen candidates, campaign officials and lawmakers reveal they're acutely aware of who, exactly, put them on the back foot this entire cycle.

"There was a point earlier this year where we really felt like we could defy history," said one House Republican, who, like others in this article, was granted anonymity to candidly discuss midterms dynamics. "And then Trump bombed Iran. And it was just one thing after another.”Republicans are tied or trailing in polls in numerous critical battlegrounds and expecting to lose some once-secure red seats. And Trump's unfocused closing message — including repeated comments about male candidates' physical appearances — has further frustrated an already on-edge party.

“I think Jon Husted's ass and Nicki Minaj's is a great closing message,” T.W. Arrighi, a Republican strategist working on the South Carolina Senate race and others, said sarcastically in an interview on The Conversation with Dasha Burns. “You’ve got to take the good with the bad with Trump, unless you want to drive yourself crazy every day.”“People are gonna go after the president. The buck stops with him. His approval ratings aren't great,” he added.

Privately, some Republicans are even harsher. “At least when Barack Obama was president, he only screwed his enemies, never his friends,” said a second House Republican.

The White House defended its involvement in the war with Iran, tariff regime and approach to immigration enforcement. Davis Ingle, a White House spokesperson, said in a statement that Trump “is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress.”

One White House official, granted anonymity to speak candidly, called the blame game “an asinine adventure” and said Trump “has obviously left it all on the field.”If the bottom falls out for the GOP on Tuesday, the quiet calls assigning him blame may turn into a public shanking as Trump nears the lame-duck stage of his presidency, Republicans refocus on how to win voters back for 2028 and jostle for their own spots in the party’s future.

“I'm not sure what the Republican Party looks like in six months. Look, a lot of Republicans have held their tongues. A lot of Republicans who have real problems with the way things have gone the last two years have been good soldiers,” said a Republican strategist involved in competitive midterm races across the country. “But what happens if we lose 35 House seats and six Senate seats?”“We all know who the problem is. It’s Trump. And do we continue down a path of losing?” the strategist added.

In Georgia, some Republicans have already warned that low early voting turnout in rural parts of the state could drag down their entire ticket. "If you live in rural Georgia, you're going to be disproportionately hurt by higher — especially diesel — prices,” said Jason Shepherd, the former GOP chair of suburban Cobb County. “The promise of the great Trump economy has not materialized." Top Hill Republicans have worked behind the scenes for months to try to alleviate some of the political fallout from Trump’s election year policy moves, including arguing to White House officials that Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Michigan Senate nominee Mike Rogers could lose their races if the administration didn’t reach an off-ramp from the trade war with Canada, according to three Republicans with direct knowledge of the matter. Eventually, Trump agreed to roll back some tariffs and add new ones in a boost to Collins.

Republicans also pressed for the White House to undo some of Trump’s other controversial moves, like his executive order to import more foreign beef that has riled ranchers and farmers in red states like Kansas, Iowa and Texas. But that relief never came.

"Republicans have always been aware of the historical midterm precedent, and that's why we're barnstorming the country to tout the president's achievements on cutting taxes, securing the border, and lowering drug costs,” said Natalie Baldassarre, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “Any anonymous strategist who says the president is not helpful in turning out Republican voters has no idea what they're talking about, and their candidates should request a refund for their shoddy consulting services." But Trump’s actions, Republicans say, are hitting different parts of the country hard. The Iran war, they argue, was a significant blunder from Trump that has multiplied Democrats’ paths to power in both the House and Senate by driving fuel and fertilizer costs up — most notably impacting races across the Midwest.

The White House’s tariffs regime has been a major concern in battlegrounds on the Canadian border like Maine and Michigan.

Hardline immigration enforcement that has resulted in the deportation of thousands has hurt especially in heavily Latino border states like Arizona and Texas, and the cancelling of Temporary Protected Status for Haitians and Venezuelans has enraged South Florida voters. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, a Miami Republican, warned the president in a campaign ad earlier this year that his immigration tactics had gone too far.

“Trump won Miami, and yet he went to the place that gave him the biggest support, and kind of just fucked everybody over if we're being honest.” said one Florida-based Republican operative.

New results from The POLITICO Poll show that Republican midterm voters are split over who they would blame if the GOP performs worse than it did in 2024: A sizable 29% blame Trump for making the GOP less popular, while 30% said it is because Trump himself is not on the ballot. Fourteen percent said it would be because the Democratic Party has become more popular, while roughly one in four said they don’t know.

Some in the party question whether Trump’s last-minute campaign travel across the country and the millions of dollars his political operation has poured into battleground states will even be enough. They see him as more absorbed in protecting his legacy than making actionable policy changes to help his party stay in power.

“He cares more about the ballroom than he cares about Republicans winning the midterms,” said a third Republican strategist working in battleground races. “He wants the Nobel Peace Prize, these big legacy-defining things seem to be taking up more of his attention than actually being president.”

A fourth GOP operative working on midterms races has a curt message if Republicans lose big: “Thank you, Donald Trump." Dasha Burns contributed reporting.