在中期选举中，人们往往很难知道该把重点放在哪里。从州长、参议员到众议院和州议会的选举，竞选实在太多了。为了更好地了解当晚的走势以及哪个党派可能会控制国会，以下有六个方面的内容需要关注：
It can be hard to know what to focus on in midterm elections. There are so many races, from elections for governor and senator to the House and state legislatures. For a better idea of how the night might go to see which party might control Congress, here are six things to
- 衡量共和党人投票率和拉丁裔选票的早期风向标印第安纳州和肯塔基州这两个州将在美东时间下午6点产生选举结果。此外还有佛罗里达州，该州分属东部和中部两个时区。不过该州大部分地区属于东部时区。因此，尽管参议员和州长等全州竞选最早也要到美东时间晚上8点才会见分晓，但许多众议院选举的结果将在美东时间晚上7点陆续出炉。
- The early bellwethers for Republican turnout and the Latino vote There are two states, Indiana and Kentucky, that will see results in the 6 p.m. ET hour. And then there's Florida, which is split between the Eastern and Central time zones. But most of the state is on Eastern time. So lots of House race results will be coming in during the 7 p.m. ET hour, even if statewide contests like the Senate and governors races won't be called at the earliest until 8 p.m.
有一些竞选值得关注，可以作为当晚晚些时候可能发生情况的早期指标——印第安纳州第5国会选区、肯塔基州第6选区以及佛罗里达州的第22和第27选区。印第安纳州第5选区和肯塔基州第6选区目前由共和党人把持，与本选举周期开始时相比，这两个席位的竞争更加激烈。如果这些选区选情胶着或倾向于民主党，这可能预示着共和党人投票率低迷以及更强劲的民主党浪潮。
ET. Some races to watch for early indicators of what might come later in the evening — Indiana's 5th Congressional District, Kentucky's 6th and Florida's 22nd and 27th. Indiana's 5th and Kentucky's 6th are seats held by Republicans that are more competitive now than at the beginning of the cycle. If these are close or tipping to Democrats, it could be a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave.
佛罗里达州第22选区目前由民主党人把持，但经过选区重划，现已倾向于共和党。特朗普曾在佛罗里达州第27选区以两位数的优势获胜，因此这个拉丁裔人口众多的选区可以成为这个关键细分群体投票倾向的一个指标。
Florida's 22nd is held by a Democrat but redrawn to tip in Republicans' favor. Trump won Florida's 27th by double-digits so this heavily Latino district could be an indicator of how this key subgroup votes.
- 共和党人能否在独立选民中获得46%的支持率？独立选民是关键的摇摆群体，但他们在中间选举中的投票倾向也较低。
- Do Republicans get 46% with independents? Independents are a key swing group, but they are also a lower-propensity voting group in midterms.
在特朗普时代之前，共和党人必须赢得更大比例的独立选民支持。例如，米特·罗姆尼在2012年赢得了55%的独立选民支持，但输掉了总统大选。不过，这个国家的政治版图已经重新洗牌：蓝领白人选民正倾向于特朗普，自认是民主党人的人数减少，而受过高等教育的白人选民则转向了民主党。
It used to be that Republicans had to win a bigger share of independents before the Trump era. Mitt Romney, for example, won 55% of independents in 2012 but lost the presidential election. But there's been a political realignment in this country with blue-collar white voters trending toward Trump, fewer people identifying as Democrats and better-educated white voters shifting toward Democrats.
因此，在特朗普登上政治舞台的这十年里，共和党人在独立选民中赢得至少百分之四十六的支持率时，往往表现良好；而如果没有达到这一比例，他们就会落败。
So in the decade since Trump has been on the political scene, Republicans have done well when they win at least 46% of independents. When they haven't, they've lost.
- 关键州的黑人选民投票率密歇根州的参议员竞选对于参议院控制权的争夺至关重要。如果共和党人夺回该席位，民主党人的“魔术数字”将从四个变成五个，这意味着民主党必须赢得五个由共和党人把持的席位才能掌控参议院。
- Black voter turnout in key states The Michigan Senate race is important for control of the Senate. If Republicans flip it, the magic number for Democrats goes from four to five, meaning Democrats would have to win five seats held by Republicans to win control of the Senate.
民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）要想在密歇根州获胜，韦恩郡的黑人选民将是关键所在。如果他在底特律市内及其周边地区获得高得票率，他就有望走向胜利；但如果没有做到这一点，胜利就会变得难得多——而这也是他一直以来的一个薄弱环节。
For Abdul El-Sayed (D) to win in Michigan, a key is going to be Black voters in Wayne County. If he runs up the score in and around Detroit, he has a path to victory, but if he doesn't, it becomes that much harder — and it's been an area of vulnerability for him.
在特朗普时代，除非像2024年的参议员埃利萨·斯洛特金（Elissa Slotkin）那样能够在郊区取得超常表现，否则民主党人需要韦恩郡百分之六十八或以上的选票才能赢得密歇根州。
During the Trump era, Democrats have needed 68% or more in Wayne County to win Michigan unless, like Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024, they can overperform in the suburbs.
韦恩郡民主党得票率优势：2024年斯洛特金百分之六十三，胜选（占百分之十一）；2024年哈里斯百分之六十二，败选；2020年拜登百分之六十八，胜选（百分之十二）；2020年彼得斯百分之六十八，胜选；2018年斯塔贝诺百分之六十九，胜选（百分之十五）；2016年克林顿百分之六十六，败选（百分之十三）。
Wayne County Democratic margins 2024 Slotkin 63% Win (11% share) 2024 Harris 62% Loss 2020 Biden 68% Win (12%) 2020 Peters 68% Win 2018 Stabenow 69% Win (15%) 2016 Clinton 66% Loss (13%)
- 年轻选民的得票率优势18至29岁选民在总统大选和中期选举中的投票率会出现急剧下降。自1992年以来的总统竞选中，百分之四十三的年轻登记选民投了票。但在中期选举中，这一比例降至百分之二十一，即仅有五分之一的人前往投票站。
- The margin with young voters Voters 18 to 29 see a drastic drop off in turnout between presidential and midterm elections. During presidential races since 1992, 43% of registered young voters cast ballots. But in midterms, that falls to 21%, just 1 in 5 who show up at the polls.
但他们对民主党的成功至关重要。在过去二十年中，当民主党人在这个群体中以超过二十个百分点的优势获胜时，他们的表现往往很好，赢得了总统职位或在中期选举中取得了收益。唯一的例外是2022年，但可以说，民主党人那年在年轻选民中赢得的大幅优势，帮助他们遏制了本可能更大的共和党浪潮。那一年，民主党失去了九个众议院席位，但赢得了一个参议院席位。
But they are crucial to Democratic success. In the last 20 years, when Democrats won this group by more than 20 points, they have done well, winning presidencies or making gains in midterms. The only exception was 2022, but arguably, the strong margin Democrats won with young voters that year, helped them stem what could have been a much larger Republican tide. That year, Democrats lost nine House seats, but gained a Senate seat.
民主党在18至29岁选民中的优势，2024年选举结果+11，特朗普赢得总统职位2022年+28，共和党赢得众议院，民主党赢得参议院席位2020年+25，拜登赢得总统职位2018年+35，民主党赢得众议院2014年+11，共和党扩大众议院多数席位，赢得参议院2012年+23，奥巴马赢得连任2010年+17，共和党赢得众议院2008年+34，奥巴马赢得总统职位
Democratic margin with voters 18-29, election result 2024 +11, Trump wins presidency 2022 +28, Republicans win House, Democrats gain Senate seat 2020 +25, Biden wins presidency 2018 +35, Democrats win House 2014 +11, Republicans expand House majority, win Senate 2012 +23, Obama wins re-election 2010 +17, Republicans win House 2008 +34, Obama wins presidency
- 在德克萨斯州，关键在于格雷格·阿博特州长（共和党人）和肯·帕克顿（共和党人）的得票差距——以及南德克萨斯州的拉丁裔选票鉴于德克萨斯州过去民调低估共和党选票的错误，人们对民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科在民调平均值中领先误差范围足以获胜持有健康的怀疑态度。
- In Texas, the keys will be the difference between Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Ken Paxton's (R) vote totals – and the Latino vote in South Texas Given past polling errors in Texas that underestimated the Republican vote, there's a healthy skepticism that Democrat James Talarico's margin of error lead in polling averages is enough to win.
2018年，贝托·奥罗克（民主党人）挑战不受欢迎的共和党参议员泰德·克鲁兹的竞选引发了大量热情，但克鲁兹仍然获胜，尽管胜选幅度不到3个百分点。自1994年以来，没有民主党人在德克萨斯州赢得过全州选举，38年来也没有民主党人当选为该州参议员。
There was lots of enthusiasm in 2018 for Beto O'Rourke's (D) 2018 bid against an unpopular Republican senator in Ted Cruz, but Cruz still won, although by less than 3 percentage points. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and no Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Texas in 38 years.
要想在这个特朗普在2024年以14个百分点获胜的州真正实现这一点，两个群体至关重要——共和党人和拉丁裔。肯·帕克顿（共和党人）不受欢迎。共和党州长格雷格·阿博特也面临一场胶着的竞选，但他被认为比帕克顿形势更好。2018年，克鲁兹的得票比阿博特少了约40万张，但克鲁兹仍以超过20万张选票获胜。因此，要观察阿博特和帕克顿之间的差距是否超过40万张，以判断塔拉里科的情况。
For it to actually happen in this state Trump won by 14 points in 2024, two groups are key – Republicans and Latinos. Ken Paxton (R) is unpopular. Republican Gov. Greg Abbot is also facing a tight race, but he's thought to be in better shape than Paxton. In 2018, Cruz won about 400,000 fewer votes than Abbott, but Cruz still won by more than 200,000 votes. So watch if the difference between Abbott and Paxton is more than 400,000 for Talarico.
塔拉里科获胜之路的第二部分在于南德克萨斯州。根据出口民调，全州范围内，奥罗克在2018年赢得了64%的拉丁裔选票，拉丁裔占选民的26%。如果塔拉里科在这两项指标上都高于奥罗克，他就能赢得该席位。塔拉里科需要在这些拉丁裔人口众多的县改善奥罗克的得票率：卡梅伦县63%，伊达尔戈县69%，韦伯县71%，努埃塞斯县51%。作为额外观察点，还要关注发展迅速且人口稠密的达拉斯郊区——科林县47%，登顿县46%，塔兰特县51%。
The second part of Talarico's path to victory runs through South Texas. Statewide, O'Rourke won 64% of Latinos in 2018, and they were 26% of the electorate, according to exit polls. If Talarico is north of both of those, that's how he wins the seat. Talarico would need to improve on O'Rourke's totals in these Latino-heavy counties: Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51%. As a bonus, watch the fast-growing and heavily populated Dallas suburbs – Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51%.
- 党派认同由于特朗普时代发生的政治重组，请留意人们在出口民调中的自我身份认同。
- Party identification Because of the political realignment that's taken place in the Trump era, watch how people identify in exit polls.
自称是民主党人的比例在2024年降至31%的低点。这一趋势出现的同时，民主党的基本盘变得更加自由派，对自身领导层的失望情绪也日益加重。不过，根据美国全国公共广播电台（NPR）的最新民调，今年的民主党人属于热情最高的人群之一，但要在选举中取得好成绩，他们在选民中所占的比例很可能需要远高于31%。
The percentage of those saying they were Democrats hit a low in 2024 at 31%. That trend is happening as the base of the Democratic Party has become more liberal and more disaffected with their own leadership. This year, though, Democrats were among the highest in enthusiasm levels, according to the latest NPR poll, but they are likely going to have to be far higher than 31% as a share of the electorate to do well.
在选民中所占比例的民主党人：2024年31%、2022年33%、2020年37%、2018年37%、2014年35%、2012年38%、2010年39%。鉴于这次选举中对特朗普的反对声浪极高——美国全国公共广播电台最新民调显示，53%的可能选民表示他们强烈反对他的工作表现——这种情况完全有可能发生。这极有可能成为这次选举中左翼的一股凝聚力量。俗话说得好，敌人的敌人就是朋友。
Democrats as a share of the electorate 2024 31% 2022 33% 2020 37% 2018 37% 2014 35% 2012 38% 2010 39% That's quite possible given the opposition to Trump in this election is sky high – 53% of likely voters in the latest NPR poll said they strongly disapproved of the job he's doing. That is very likely to be a unifying force for the left in this election. As the saying goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
顺着这些思路，密切关注诸如密歇根州参议员竞选和密歇根州第7国会选区竞争等赛事将非常重要，这两场竞选都有非常进步派的民主党候选人试图在摇摆地区获胜。民主党的团结——以及该党 Ideological（意识形态）的未来——将成为2028年总统初选的关键故事线，并可能会在未来多年定义美国左翼。
Along these lines, it's going to be important to watch races like the Michigan Senate race and the contest for Michigan's 7th Congressional District, both of which have very progressive Democratic candidates trying to win in purple places. Democratic unity – and the party's ideological future – is going to be a key storyline of the 2028 presidential primary and could define the American left for years to come.