
早上好。周二将显得漫长无比,充斥着谣言(诱饵日现身!)、轶事(妈妈投票的地方排起长龙!)和虚假出口民调(爱狗人士认为爱猫人士该收敛收敛!)。等到日落时分,将有一股持续不断的真实新闻火力全开,足以让你头晕目眩。冷静点。我们为你备好了应对之道。以下是按(美国东部时间)每小时时段划分的关键州,助你理清头绪。
Good morning. Tuesday will feel interminably long, full of rumors (Decoy Day spotting!) and anecdotes (long lines where mom votes!) and fake exit polls (dog people think cat people need to knock it off!). And then, when the sun goes down, there will be a constant fire hose of REAL NEWS that could make your head spin. Calm down. We got you. Here’s how to make sense of it all with the key states to watch in each (Eastern Time) hourly window.
晚上7点:佐治亚州和南卡罗来纳州。在佐治亚州,州长选举竞争最为激烈。因此该选情可能要拖到深夜才见分晓。在南卡罗来纳州,如果民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯在与共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆的较量中争取领先,共和党可能将面临一个糟糕之夜。如果格雷厄姆成功击退安德鲁斯的挑战,民主党的一条路径将就此关闭。
7 p.m.: Georgia and South Carolina. In Georgia, the governor’s race is the tightest. So that one might go late into the night. In South Carolina, if Democrat Annie Andrews fights to a lead over GOP Sen. Darline Graham, Republicans might be in for a terrible night. If Graham fends Andrews off, one door for Democrats will close.
晚上7点30分:北卡罗来纳州和俄亥俄州。这很可能标志着民主党今晚首个参议院席位“反转”,但他们还需要再拿下三个。他们能否在俄亥俄州取得其中一个席位?民主党人谢罗德·布朗正试图击败共和党人乔恩·赫斯特德。与此同时,在州长选举中,民主党人艾米·阿克顿将试图击败维韦克·拉马斯瓦米。拉马斯瓦米在冲刺阶段颇为抢眼,如果民主党选民大量投票,他可能会成为拖累赫斯特德的累赘。
7:30 p.m.: North Carolina and Ohio. This will probably mark the Democrats’ first Senate “pickup” of the night, but they will need three more. Will they get one of those in Ohio, with Democrat Sherrod Brown trying to unseat Republican Jon Husted? Meanwhile, in the governor’s race, Democrat Amy Acton will try to defeat Vivek Ramaswamy. Ramaswamy had a newsy final stretch, to say the least, and he could end up being a drag on Husted if Democrats turn out in big numbers.
晚上8点:佛罗里达州、缅因州、密歇根州和新罕布什尔州。这是关键时刻。局势将变得极其紧张。民主党(好吧,是部分民主党人)希望守住密歇根州的席位,阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德试图击败前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯。民调对埃尔-赛义德有利,但这场竞争可能非常胶着。在经历了一个夏天的失误后,民主党寄希望于特洛伊·杰克逊能终于击败从未尝过败绩的共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯。
8 p.m.: Florida, Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire. This is the witching hour. This is when things will get INTENSE. Democrats (well, some Democrats) want to hold the seat in Michigan as Abdul El-Sayed attempts to defeat former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. Polls look good for El-Sayed, but this race could be really close. And after a summer of missteps, Democrats are hopeful they found their candidate in Troy Jackson to finally defeat the undefeatable GOP Sen. Susan Collins.
如果罗杰斯和柯林斯都击败了各自的民主党挑战者,共和党控制参议院的前景将显得非常现实。如果两人双双落败,民主党可能将势如破竹。(不过密歇根州计票缓慢,非常缓慢。)晚上9点:爱荷华州、堪萨斯州和得克萨斯州。在正常年份,共和党本应能轻松守住这三个州。但今年并非正常年份。如果他们确实在每个州都击退了民主党,共和党就完成了任务。
If Rogers and Collins beat their Democratic challenges, the prospect of GOP control of the Senate will seem very possible. If they both go down, Democrats could roll. (Michigan counts slow, though, so slow). 9 p.m.: Iowa, Kansas and Texas. In a normal year, Republicans should be able to comfortably hold all three. This isn’t a normal year, though. If they do bat back the Democrats in each of these states, Republicans did their job.
请关注得克萨斯州的参议院竞选,民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科对阵共和党人肯·帕克斯顿。那里投出了数百万张早期选票,得票差距可能非常微小。如果民主党确实掀起蓝色浪潮,这就是他们可能巩固对众议院控制权的时间窗口。
Watch the Senate race in Texas between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. There were millions of early votes cast there, and the margins might be really tight. If Democrats do produce a blue wave, this is the window when they could cement control of the House of Representatives.
晚上11点:加利福尼亚州。民主党希望基本消灭加州剩余的大多数共和党人,并可能在此扩大他们在众议院的优势。不过,加州最引人关注的两场投票是洛杉矶市长竞选,凯伦·巴斯对阵美国民主社会主义者成员尼蒂亚·拉曼。此外,请关注此地的财富税投票。(提醒:加州清点选票需要极长时间)。
11 p.m.: California. Democrats want to essentially wipe out most of the remaining California Republicans, and they could pad their margins in the House here. The two most interesting votes in California, though, are the L.A. mayor’s race between Karen Bass and Nithya Raman, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. Also, watch the wealth tax vote here. (Reminder, California takes FOREVER to tally votes).
凌晨1点:阿拉斯加州。最精彩的留在了最后。参议员丹·S·沙利文希望赢得连任,击败民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉。是的,这里有大量背景故事。关键在于,如果参议院控制权取决于谁赢得他的席位,且竞争激烈,我们可能要过相当长一段时间才能知道胜者是谁。
1 a.m.: Alaska. Saved the best for last. Sen. Dan S. Sullivan is hoping to win re-election and defeat Democrat Mary Peltola. Yeah, there’s plenty of back story here. The upshot is that if Senate control comes down to who wins his seat, and it’s close, we might not know who the winner is until quite some time.

选举日:关注《华尔街日报》选举直播报道,见证选民决定谁将控制未来两年的国会。
Election Day: Follow the WSJ election live coverage as voters decide who will control Congress for the next two years.
特朗普的周二:总统计划举行政策会议,并将在晚上出席选举日招待会。
Trump’s Tuesday: The president is scheduled to hold policy meetings and will be attending an Election Day reception in the evening.
中期选举透露出我们的政治将走向何方。今年许多选民一直在重新评估对两党的效忠,造就了更流动的选民群体。选民推举出一代新的政治领袖,他们有潜力重塑两党。而选民的不满在如何由政府帮助民众应对生活成本问题上,产生了跨越党线的惊人共识。
What the midterms tell us about where our politics are headed. Many voters this year have been re-evaluating their allegiance to either political party, creating more fluidity in the electorate. Voters have elevated a new generation of political leaders who have the potential to reshape the parties. And voter dissatisfaction has produced surprising areas of agreement across party lines on how government can help people handle the cost of living.
特朗普在大选前夕发表关于倒影池的演讲,令共和党人感到意外。总统周一在林肯纪念堂发表了近一小时的演讲,重点谈论他的建设项目和翻新工程。他的讲话让共和党人感到沮丧,因为他们希望他在大选前夕聚焦经济议题。
Trump surprised Republicans with an election-eve speech about the reflecting pool. The president delivered a nearly hourlong speech at the Lincoln Memorial on Monday that focused on his construction projects and renovations. His remarks frustrated Republicans, who wanted him to focus on economic issues on the eve of the election.
美国袭击伊朗格什姆岛,特朗普淡化战争风险。美国周一的袭击是华盛顿近几周秘密对伊朗实施的一系列有限打击中的最新一次,当时特朗普正在宣扬达成外交协议的可能性。这次袭击发生在总统淡化周二中期选举后与伊朗重返战争状态的可能性的言论之后。
U.S. strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island as Trump talks down war risks. The U.S. attack on Monday is the latest in a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against the country in recent weeks as Trump touted the possibility of a diplomatic deal. The assault follows comments by the president playing down the possibility of a return to war with Iran after Tuesday’s midterm elections.
我是达米安·帕莱塔,《华尔街日报》华盛顿报道主管。作为记者和编辑,我报道华盛顿已有22年。我曾报道白宫、国会、国家安全、联邦预算、经济以及多次市场崩盘。
I’m Damian Paletta, The Wall Street Journal’s Washington coverage chief. I’ve covered Washington for 22 years as a reporter and editor. I’ve covered the White House, Congress, national security, the federal budget, economics and multiple market meltdowns.