大选日来临，屏息以待结果的观察人士将面临一个漫长的夜晚。结果将于美国东部时间下午6点开始陆续出炉，国会控制权悬而未决。尽管最终计票可能需要数天甚至数周，但周二晚间的竞选预测将开始勾勒出哪个党派将掌控国会山的权力。民主党需要赢得共和党把持的四个参议院席位，并在众议院净增三个共和党席位，才能翻转任一议院。
Election Day is here, and observers waiting with bated breath for results can expect a late night. Results will begin to trickle in at 6 p.m. EST, with control of Congress on the line. Although the final tabulation of votes could take days or even weeks, race projections Tuesday night will begin to paint a picture of which party will clinch power on Capitol Hill. Democrats need to win four GOP-held Senate seats and net three Republican House seats to flip either chamber.
夜晚拖得越久，对共和党越有利，特别是如果关键竞选胶着难分胜负。决策台总部（DDHQ）首席选举分析师杰弗里·斯凯利告诉《国会山报》：“如果民调准确，普选倾向相对准确，我们将能在夜里较早时候做出预测。”以下是周二投票站逐小时关闭时的预期情况：肯塔基州和印第安纳州将率先于美国东部时间下午6点部分关闭投票站，其余投票站于下午7点关闭。
A later night would bode well for Republicans, particularly if key races are too close to call. "If the polls are right, the generic ballot is relatively right, we're going to be able to project pretty early in the night," Decision Desk HQ's (DDHQ) chief election analyst Geoffrey Skelley told The Hill. Here’s what to expect every hour as the polls close Tuesday: Kentucky and Indiana will be the first states to have some of their polls close at 6 p.m., with their remaining polls closing at 7 p.m.
斯凯利在10月的一篇博文中写道，在最初两小时左右，美国东部地区报告的结果“将推动我们对中期选举走向的初步理解”。斯凯利表示，肯塔基州第六选区若发生翻盘，可能预示着“一场巨大的蓝色浪潮”。决策台总部将共和党人拉尔夫·阿尔瓦拉多与民主党人扎克·登博争夺即将卸任的共和党众议员安迪·巴尔席位的竞选评级为“势均力敌”。
Skelley wrote in an October blog post that within the first two or so hours, results reported from the eastern part of the U.S. "will drive our initial understanding of what's happening in the midterms." A flip in Kentucky's 6th District could be indicative of a "big blue wave," Skelley said. DDHQ rates the race between Republican Ralph Alvarado and Democrat Zach Dembo for outgoing Rep. Andy Barr's (R) seat as a toss-up.
佐治亚州、南卡罗来纳州、佛蒙特州、弗吉尼亚州以及佛罗里达州和新罕布什尔州的大部分地区投票站于下午7点关闭，不过这最后两个州的剩余投票站将于下午8点关闭。西弗吉尼亚州、俄亥俄州和北卡罗来纳州的投票站于下午7点30分关闭。斯凯利指出，这八个州——佛罗里达州、佐治亚州、印第安纳州、肯塔基州、北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州、南卡罗来纳州和弗吉尼亚州——的选举在投票站关闭后将“尤为揭示关键信息”。
Polls close at 7 p.m. in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia and most of Florida and New Hampshire, though remaining polls in those last two states close at 8 p.m. West Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina's polls close at 7:30 p.m. Skelley noted that the elections in eight of these states — Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Virginia — will be "especially revealing" once polls close.
在这些州，近50个众议院选区“至少具有轻微竞争性——即对某一党派而言并非‘稳操胜券’。”全国计票速度最快的州是佛罗里达州，预计投票结束后很快就会有早期数据点出炉。佛罗里达州西北部（Panhandle）于晚上8点结束投票。晚上7点30分前的投票结束情况可能显示出“蓝色浪潮”来袭的迹象，特别是如果民主党在佛罗里达、印第安纳、佐治亚、俄亥俄、南卡罗来纳、北卡罗来纳和弗吉尼亚州赢得胜利。
Nearly 50 House races in these states are "at least mildly competitive — that is, not 'safe' for one party." The state with the quickest reporting in the country is Florida, with early data points expected to be available after closing. The Panhandle closes at 8 p.m. Poll closings by 7:30 p.m. could show signs that a "blue wave" is coming, particularly if Democrats claim victories in Florida, Indiana, Georgia, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia.
斯凯利估计：“在这些席位中任何一个实现民主党获胜，都将是一场选举地震，几乎可以保证民主党赢得多数席位。”他同时表示：“共和党守住这些席位，只会略微提高共和党赢得多数的机会。”
"An actual Democratic win in any of these seats would be an electoral earthquake that all but guarantees a Democratic majority," Skelley estimated. "Republican holds, meanwhile, would only mildly improve the GOP’s majority chances."
斯凯利告诉《国会山报》，鉴于2000年佛罗里达州选举结果的后续影响，其投票系统已成为“全国最好的”，并能在晚上7点20分至7点30分之间勾勒出局势走向。他说：“我们将能够做出预测，因为我们会像这样判断：‘嗯，没人能再翻盘了，诸如此类。’”他指出：“许多关键选区，以及纸面上倾向共和党的选区，由于佛罗里达州重新划分选区——民主党正在这些地方获胜。这将意味着，如果共和党在佛罗里达州这样输掉选举，对他们来说要想获胜将非常困难。”
Skelley told The Hill that after the fallout from Florida's election results in 2000, its voting system became "the best in the country" and could map out what shakes out between 7:20 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. "We'll be able to make projections because we'll be like, 'Well, there's no way someone's ever coming that lead, or what have you,'" he said. "A lot of key districts, and a lot of Republican leading districts on paper, because of the Florida redraw –– Democrats are winning in those places. That will be like, well, it's going to be real hard for Republicans to win if they're losing in Florida like this."
他强调，佛罗里达州对两党而言都是“喜忧参半”，因此该州结果与其他州竞选结果的结合，可能会让中期选举的整体结果“变得不那么清晰”。
He emphasized that Florida is a "mixed bag" for both parties, so results between this and other states' races could make the overall outcome of the midterms "a little less clear."
斯凯利补充道，俄亥俄州四个众议院选区的结果也可能“告诉我们许多关于多数党归属的情况”。在俄亥俄州第7选区，众议员马克斯·米勒（共和党）面临前妻和女儿指控其家庭暴力，该选区呈现五五开局势，而特朗普总统在2024年曾在该州获胜。斯凯利表示：“民主党获胜将使该党赢得多数席位的几率升至90%以上，而共和党守住该席位则会将这一几率降至65%以下。”有几个州将在晚上8点完全结束投票。
The outcome with Ohio's four House races could also "tell us much about the majority situation," Skelley added. The race for Ohio's 7th District, where Rep. Max Miller (R) has faced allegations of domestic abuse toward his ex-wife and daughter, is a 50-50 split in a state President Trump won in 2024. "A Democratic win would push the party’s majority chances north of 90 percent, while a GOP hold would lower them below 65 percent," Skelley said. Several states will have their polls completely close at 8 p.m.
周二。这些州包括：阿拉巴马州、康涅狄格州、特拉华州、伊利诺伊州、缅因州、马里兰州、马萨诸塞州、密西西比州、密苏里州、新泽西州、俄克拉荷马州、宾夕法尼亚州、罗德岛州和田纳西州，此外还有华盛顿特区。阿肯色州的投票站将于晚上8点30分关闭。堪萨斯州、密歇根州、北达科他州、南达科他州和得克萨斯州的大多数投票站将于晚上8点关闭，每个州都跨越了时区。
Tuesday. These are: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee, in addition to Washington, D.C. Polls across Arkansas will close at 8:30 p.m. Most polling closes at 8 p.m. in Kansas, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas, with each state being split between time zones.
这些州其余的投票站将于晚上9点关闭。晚上8点这一小时预计将是当晚最繁忙的时段。密歇根州前众议员迈克·罗杰斯（共和党）与阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（民主党）之间、缅因州参议员苏珊·柯林斯（共和党）与民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊之间、以及得克萨斯州肯·帕克斯顿（共和党）与詹姆斯·塔拉里科（民主党）之间的关键参议院竞选结果将开始陆续出炉，并将提供关于哪个党派占据势头的见解。
The rest of the polls in these states will close at 9 p.m. The 8 p.m. hour is expected to be the busiest hour of the night. The results from the battleground Senate races between former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) and Abdul El-Sayed (D) in Michigan, Sen. Susan Collins (R) and Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine, and Ken Paxton (R) and James Talarico (D) in Texas will begin to trickle in and will provide insights into which party has the momentum.
斯凯利指出，罗杰斯在密歇根州获胜将标志着共和党取得“大胜”，因为该党正寻求捍卫其多数党地位。但如果民主党在上述三个州中的任何一个取得明确胜利，可能会引发呼声，称该党正逐步接近夺回参议院控制权。亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州、爱荷华州、路易斯安那州、明尼苏达州、内布拉斯加州、新墨西哥州、纽约州、威斯康星州和怀俄明州的所有投票站将于晚上9点关闭。
A Rogers victory in Michigan would mark a "massive win" for the GOP, Skelley noted, as the party seeks to defend its majority. But clear Democratic victories in any of these three states could prompt calls that the party is inching closer to reclaiming the Senate. States that will see all polls close at 9 p.m. include Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
爱荷华州的民主党人和明尼苏达州的共和党人正寻求翻转空缺的参议院席位。爱荷华州是可能决定国会控制权的关键战场之一，参众两院竞选均呈胶着状态。与此同时，内布拉斯加州也是晚上9点这一时段需要密切关注的一个州。独立人士丹·奥斯本正在发起参议院竞选翻盘，两年前他在这个红色据点以个位数差距败给了共和党参议员德布·费舍尔。
Democrats in Iowa and Republicans in Minnesota are seeking to flip open Senate seats. Iowa is one of the key battlegrounds that could decide control of Congress, with toss-up House and Senate contests. Nebraska, meanwhile, is also a state to keep a close eye on in the 9 p.m. hour. Independent Dan Osborn is mounting a Senate comeback bid after losing to Republican Sen. Deb Fischer by single digits in the red stronghold two years ago.
蒙大拿州、内华达州和犹他州的投票站将于晚上10点关闭，爱达荷州大部分地区也将于此时关闭，该州还将有部分投票站于晚上11点关闭。俄勒冈州山区时区社区的投票站将最早于晚上10点关闭，尽管该州其余投票站将于晚上11点关闭。
Montana, Nevada and Utah will see polls close at 10 p.m., along with most of Idaho, which will also see some of its polls close at 11 p.m. Oregon will also see polls close as early as 10 p.m. for communities in the Mountain time zone, though the rest of the state's polls close at 11 p.m.
另一位引发关注的独立候选人是蒙大拿州的塞思·博德纳。他面临着艰难的战斗，对手是共和党人库尔特·阿尔梅，据DDHQ估计，截至周一，阿尔梅在共和党参议员史蒂夫·戴恩斯空出的席位争夺战中获胜几率为77%。随着大部分投票站于美国东部时间晚上10点关闭，国会山权力平衡的轮廓很可能开始显现。两个西海岸州份——加利福尼亚州和华盛顿州——的投票站将于东部时间晚上11点关闭。
Another independent candidate making waves is Montana's Seth Bodnar. He faces an uphill battle against Republican Kurt Alme, who DDHQ estimates has a 77 percent chance of winning Sen. Steve Daines's (R) open seat, as of Monday. With the bulk of polls closed by 10 p.m., the balance of power on Capitol Hill is likely to begin to come into focus. Two West Coast states — California and Washington — will see polls close at 11 p.m.
西部各州，其中一些几乎完全采用邮寄选票投票，允许选票在选举日后有更长的时间送达计票，加利福尼亚州便是典型。金州众议员候选人的选票在决定谁控制众议院方面发挥了关键作用，包括2022年和2024年，当时执政党仅占微弱多数。但随着去年50号提案通过而实施的重新划分国会选区地图，让民主党有机会赢得至少五个席位，实际上降低了竞争激烈程度，并可能使任何可能在随后几天才分出胜负的胶着竞争不复存在。
Western states, with some almost entirely conducting elections by mail, allow longer windows of time for ballots to arrive for counting after Election Day, notably California. The Golden State's votes for House candidates have proven decisive in who controls the lower chamber, including in 2022 and 2024, years in which the party in control held a narrow majority. But its redrawn congressional map ushered in with the passage of Proposition 50 last year gives Democrats a chance of winning at least five seats, effectively shrinking the odds for competition and potentially leaving out any chances for close races that could be determined in the days that follow.
这两个州都可能至少有一个选区易手。加利福尼亚州第22选区现任共和党众议员大卫·瓦拉达奥与民主党人兰迪·维莱加斯的对决可能转为蓝色，而在华盛顿州第3选区这一战场选区，民主党众议员玛丽·格鲁森坎普·佩雷斯面临州参议院少数党领袖、共和党人约翰·布劳恩的激烈挑战。最后加入联邦的两个州——夏威夷州和阿拉斯加州——投票站将于东部时间午夜12点关闭，阿拉斯加州部分投票站于东部时间凌晨1点关闭。
Both states could see at least one district flip. California's 22nd District battle between incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R) and Randy Villegas (D) could shift blue, while Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) faces a tight race against state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R) in the battleground 3rd District. The last two states to join the union, Hawaii and Alaska, will see polls close at 12 a.m., with some of Alaska's polls closing at 1 a.m.
阿拉斯加州幅员辽阔，其选举结果在选举日结束后数小时内可能仍无定论，因为偏远地区的选票在运输过程中有时需要数天才能完成计票。根据阿拉斯加州选举局的规定，选举日前周四之前在地区选举办公室收到的提前投票选票将在选举夜计票，而周五至选举日期间投出的选票将在选举日后七天计票。
Alaska's size could leave its polls results open-ended in the hours after Election Day ends, with ballots from rural areas sometimes taking days to be counted as they are transported. Early vote ballots in regional elections offices through the Thursday before Election Day are counted the night of the election, while ballots cast on Friday through Election Day are counted seven days after the election, according to Alaska's Division of Elections.
斯凯利告诉《国会山报》，阿拉斯加州的预测结果今晚不可能出炉。参议院控制权的完整点票结果将比众议院更晚，“只是晚多久的问题”。正是在这个时间段，具体是在凌晨12点06分，美联社在2024年宣布共和党赢得参议院控制权。前两次大选中，该机构宣布参议院结果均推迟了数天，包括2022年推迟四天，2020年推迟64天，原因是12月举行的佐治亚州参议院决选，该决选决定了民主党对参议院的控制权，以及即将上任的拜登政府。
Skelley told The Hill that there could be no projections for Alaska by the end of the night. A full count of who holds control of the Senate will be later than the House and "it's just a question of how much later." It was around this time frame, specifically at 12:06 a.m., that The Associated Press called the Senate for Republicans in 2024. The previous two elections saw the outlet call the Senate several days later, including four days in 2022 and 64 days in 2020 because of the Georgia Senate runoff election held in December, which determined Democratic control in the upper chamber along with the incoming Biden administration.
上一次美联社在中期选举中宣布民主党赢得众议院控制权是在2018年，时间为次周三凌晨3点。然而，根据美联社的数据，此后每次选举的众议院结果都是在选举日数天后才宣布。2020年用了一周，2022年和2024年各用了八天。朱莉娅·穆勒对此文亦有贡献。
The last midterm election cycle when the AP called the House for Democrats was at 3 a.m. the following Wednesday in 2018. However, every election since then has seen the House called for the winning party days after Election Day, according to the AP. It took one week for the House to be called in 2020 and eight days each for the 2022 and 2024 elections. Julia Mueller contributed.