It may be hours before it’s clear who’s winning on Tuesday, but there will be some early clues. In the House of Representatives, a majority requires 218 seats. Democrats held 215 seats after the 2024 election, so they need a net gain of three to take the speaker’s gavel.

With House races across the country, early results may offer clues about whether Democrats are gaining ground by enough to take back the chamber. (Here’s a closer look at how MS NOW will make a projection on the House majority.) The Senate is tougher. Republicans begin with a 53–47 majority, counting the two independents who caucus with Democrats. Because Vice President JD Vance can break a tie, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win a 51–49 majority.

Democrats also have seats to defend, including in competitive races in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire. Assuming they hold those and their other seats, they then need to flip four Republican-held seats. North Carolina is their clearest pickup opportunity, followed by Ohio. Still, they would need two more wins among other competitive races, including in Maine, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska.

Polls in those states close at different times, so it may take a while to see how the Senate majority is shaking out. Below, an hour-by-hour look at what to watch on Election Night.

The Voter Poll’s first findings become available at 5 p.m. ET. Candidate-choice details and additional state and national findings will be released after polls close and throughout the night.

Polls close in the Eastern-time precincts of Indiana and Kentucky. Their Central-time precincts remain open until 7 p.m. ET.

One early House race to watch is Kentucky’s open 6th District, where Democrat Zach Dembo faces Republican Ralph Alvarado.

Georgia and South Carolina polls close. Polls in Florida’s Eastern time zone close, but the state’s Central time zone polls remain open for another hour.

Georgia is probably Democrats’ safest must-hold among their vulnerable Senate seats and a necessary part of their path to a majority. Sen. Jon Ossoff has led most recent polls, and MS NOW rates his race against Trump-endorsed Rep. Mike Collins as lean Democratic. But Georgia remains competitive: Trump carried the state by about 2 points in 2024, making Ossoff the only Democratic senator up for re-election in a state Trump won.

The state also has a competitive governor’s race between former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who was on Joe Biden’s vice presidential short list, and Republican billionaire Rick Jackson, who beat a Trump-endorsed candidate in the primary.

In South Carolina, MS NOW rates the race between Republican Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat held by her late brother, Lindsey, and Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews as likely Republican. Polls show an unexpectedly competitive race in the reliably Republican state, which Graham didn’t help by struggling to answer a national security question at a debate.

The Voter Poll will begin releasing post-close findings for these states, adding detail about voters’ views on the issues that mattered to them and who turned out. Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.

Democrats will now get their first sense of whether a Senate majority is within reach, as North Carolina and Ohio are two of the Republican-held seats they need to flip.

Ohio’s gubernatorial race is close, with Democrat Amy Acton, a former state health director, facing Republican venture capitalist Vivek Ramaswamy in a race rocked by his last-minute negative ad featuring her estranged mother.

Polls close in Maine, Mississippi and New Hampshire, as well as in Florida’s Central time zone. Several key Senate races will also start returning results: New Hampshire is a Democratic-held seat, so a win there would protect the party’s position but would not add a pickup. Maine is one of the Republican-held seats Democrats need to flip. If Democrats don’t win Maine, they still have a path to a majority, but they would need to win more of the other, tougher Republican-held contests.

Florida’s new congressional map reshaped four districts as part of a broader mid-decade redistricting fight launched by President Donald Trump aimed at improving Republican prospects.

Polls closed in those key districts at 7 p.m. but the state will not release preliminary results until 8 p.m., when its remaining polling places close. The races to Also, in the Florida governor’s race, Republican Rep. Byron Donalds faces Democrat David Jolly.

Arkansas polls close. The state’s Senate race is not considered competitive, but watch the House race in the 2nd District, where Democrat Chris Jones faces Republican Rep. French Hill. A narrower-than-usual Republican margin could be an early sign of a broader shift.

Polls close in Arizona, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Texas and several other states.

This is a major hour for Senate races that could decide control of the chamber: Michigan is a Democratic-held open seat, so a Democratic win there would be a much-needed hold. Iowa, Kansas and Texas are traditionally Republican states where Democrats could pick up one of the four seats they need to gain for Senate control.

Two governor’s races are worth watching this hour, too. In Texas, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott faces state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, while in Arizona, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs faces Republican Rep. Andy Biggs.

The broader House picture should also be taking shape. If Democrats are competitive in Republican-leaning districts across several states — not just in the seats redrawn to help the GOP — that points to a larger wave. If they’re winning mainly in their strongest targets and falling short in the tougher districts, the wave may be smaller than expected.

Polls close in Montana, Nevada and Utah, along with some precincts in Idaho and Oregon.

In Montana’s 1st Congressional District, Democrat Sam Forstag, a former smokejumper, faces Republican Aaron Flint, a combat veteran.

Nevada’s governor’s race is a toss-up between Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. Polls close in California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington.

California’s House races will offer a test of whether Democrats’ counter-redistricting effort is helping them. Approved by voters through Proposition 50 in 2025, the new map could put as many as five Republican-held seats in play.

California’s Proposition 40 would impose a one-time tax of up to 5% on certain assets held by qualifying billionaires, with 90% of the revenue going to healthcare. Washington’s Initiative 645 would repeal a newly enacted 9.9% tax on annual income above $1 million, set to take effect in 2028. The two ballot measures will be a key electoral test of how voters feel about taxes aimed at the wealthy.

Also this hour, Oregon’s governor’s race is closer than expected, with Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek facing Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan.

Hawaii polls close. Alaska’s polls are also closing across much of the state; the remaining Aleutian Islands precincts close later. The last Alaska polls close.

The Senate race between Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola is a toss-up. A substantial first-round lead would be a strong sign: One analysis of 522 single-winner ranked-choice elections found that the first-choice leader won 96% of the time. But a close lead could change as voters’ next-ranked choices are counted. Alaska’s official ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for Nov. 18, after the state’s absentee-ballot period.

The ballot also includes Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a nonpartisan candidate whose name resembles the incumbent’s. Republicans have argued that his candidacy could confuse voters. The New York Times reported that Peltola campaign staff and Democratic operatives worked to recruit him as part of a broader effort to draw votes away from the incumbent. Peltola has denied knowing about or participating in that effort. If Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. is eliminated, his votes will transfer to the next-ranked candidate on each ballot, if the voter ranked another candidate.

The Justice Department already sued to block certification if Sen. Sullivan loses; a federal judge dismissed the case on Nov. 1, and DOJ filed a notice of appeal. Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy has separately ordered an investigation and said certification could be affected if it finds wrongdoing.

The governor’s race is competitive, too: Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins faces a field of Republicans.

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