全美各地投票站正在开放，迎来一场中期选举。一年前，共和党原本预期能保住参议院多数席位安然度过此次选举。如今，这一预期已降格为一种期盼。
Polling stations are opening across the United States in a midterm election that, a year ago, Republicans expected to survive with their Senate majority intact. That expectation has been reduced to a hope.
先看众议院，问题不再是民主党能否获胜，而是能赢多大。预测市场显示，民主党夺取控制权的概率高达95%。《库克政治报告》目前将222个席位评为至少倾向民主党，比组成多数所需的218席多出四席；共和党方面为195席，另有18个席位属于纯粹的势均力敌。如果民主党度过一个美好的夜晚，他们控制的席位可能多达230个。
Start with the House of Representatives, where the question is no longer whether Democrats win, but by how much. Prediction markets give them a 95% chance of taking control. The Cook Political Report now rates 222 seats as at least leaning Democratic, four more than the 218 needed for a majority, against 195 for Republicans, with 18 pure toss-ups. A good night for Democrats could see them controlling as many as 230 seats.
如果是一个完美的夜晚，则意味着拿下参议院，形成“蓝色浪潮”。关键数字共和党掌握参议院100个席位中的53席。民主党要夺取控制权，需要净增四席。三席不够：若参议院出现50比50平局，副总统万斯将投下决定性一票，正如哈里斯担任副总统时创下纪录的投了33次决定性票；不过，来自宾夕法尼亚州的民主党参议员费特曼在50比50的参议院中，可能会在某些党派投票中搅局。
A great night means the Senate and a blue wave. The magic numberRepublicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats. To take control, Democrats need a net gain of four. Three is not enough: in a 50-50 Senate, Vice President JD Vance casts the tie-breaking vote, just as Kamala Harris did a record 33 times as vice president; however, Senator John Fetterman, the Democrat from Pennsylvania, could muddle certain partisan votes in a 50-50 Senate.
预测市场目前显示，民主党赢得参议院的几率约为四分之三。《库克政治报告》将六场竞选评为势均力敌，且全由共和党现任议员把持。
Prediction markets now give Democrats roughly a three-in-four chance of winning the Senate. Cook rates six races as toss-ups, all of them held by Republicans.
战场涉及12个席位。民主党防守三席：密歇根、明尼苏达和新罕布什尔。共和党防守九席：阿拉斯加、爱荷华、堪萨斯、缅因、内布拉斯加、北卡罗来纳、俄亥俄、南卡罗来纳和得克萨斯。
The battleground covers 12 seats. Democrats are defending three: Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire. Republicans are defending nine: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.
三个民主党席位中，有两个看起来相对稳妥。在明尼苏达，佩吉·弗拉纳根在RealClearPolitics民调平均值中以5.2个百分点领先米歇尔·塔福亚。在新罕布什尔，克里斯·帕帕斯在同一平均值中以8个百分点领先前参议员约翰·E·苏努努。密歇根则另当别论，稍后再谈。北卡罗来纳：被放弃北卡罗来纳是一个摇摆州，但倾向共和党：自1980年以来，除一次外，该州在每次大选中都投给了共和党总统候选人。
Two of the three Democratic seats look safe. In Minnesota, Peggy Flanagan leads Michele Tafoya by 5.2 points in the RealClearPolitics average. In New Hampshire, Chris Pappas leads former Senator John E. Sununu by eight points in the same average. Michigan is another matter, but we will come back to it. North Carolina: AbandonedNorth Carolina is a swing state, but it leans Republican: it has voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election since 1980 bar one.
随着参议员汤姆·蒂利斯宣布退休，这本该是一场势均力敌的角逐。然而，全国共和党几乎全盘放弃。作为该党主要的参议院超级政治行动委员会，参议院领袖基金原计划斥资7100万美元支持其候选人迈克尔·沃特利。在已花费超过3000万美元后，该基金于10月初取消了剩余的广告投放。来自两家倾向共和党的民调机构Quantus Insights和特拉法尔加集团的民调均显示，前州长罗伊·库珀以8个百分点领先沃特利。
With Senator Thom Tillis retiring, it should have been a fair fight. Instead, national Republicans all but walked away. The Senate Leadership Fund, the party's main Senate super PAC, had planned to spend $71 million backing its candidate, Michael Whatley. It cancelled its remaining ads in early October, after spending more than $30 million. Former Governor Roy Cooper now leads Whatley by eight points in polls from both Quantus Insights and Trafalgar Group, two Republican-leaning pollsters.
除非出现冷门，北卡罗来纳州将成为民主党首个翻红的席位。这还留给民主党三个席位需要争取。俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州：两大重头戏民主党在俄亥俄州下注最大。两年前失去席位的谢罗德·布朗正对阵共和党人乔恩·哈斯特德，后者于2025年获任命接替JD·万斯的参议员席位。在RealClearPolitics的民调平均值中，布朗以2.8个百分点领先，而特朗普曾在该州以两位数优势获胜。
Barring an upset, North Carolina will be the Democrats' first flip. That leaves three more to find. Ohio and Texas: The big prizesDemocrats placed one of their biggest bets in Ohio. Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat two years ago, is running against Republican Jon Husted, who was appointed to JD Vance's old Senate seat in 2025. Brown leads by 2.8 points in the RealClearPolitics average, in a state Trump won by double digits.
得克萨斯州若易主将是更大的冷门。该州自1988年以来未曾选出民主党参议员。然而，得克萨斯南方大学最新民调显示，民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科以49%对47%领先共和党人肯·帕克斯顿——这与其他近期民调一致。尽管如此，这仍在误差范围内，实际上属于平局。得克萨斯州不大可能转蓝。休斯顿大学霍比公共政策学院的民调显示，共和党在从州长到铁路委员会委员的所有其他全州范围竞选中均领先。
Texas would be the bigger upset. The state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. Yet Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 47% in the latest Texas Southern University poll—in line with other recent surveys. Still, this is within the margin of error and is effectively a tie. Texas probably isn’t turning blue. Republicans lead every other statewide race in the University of Houston's Hobby School poll, from governor down to railroad commissioner.
塔拉里科受益的可能是分裂投票：选民支持共和党州长、检察长或国会议员，却在参议员选举中跨界投给民主党。在霍比民调中，共和党州长格雷格·阿博特获得93%共和党选民支持，帕克斯顿获得88%。
What Talarico could benefit from is ticket-splitting: voters backing a Republican for governor, attorney general or Congress, then crossing over to the Democrat for the Senate. Republican Governor Greg Abbott wins 93% of Republicans in the Hobby poll.
帕克斯顿面临的问题一方面在于塔拉里科，这位纪律严明的年轻候选人开展了强有力的竞选；另一方面则在于帕克斯顿本人。
Paxton wins 88%.Part of the problem for Paxton is Talarico, a disciplined young candidate who has run a strong campaign. The other part of the problem is Paxton.
这位饱受争议的总检察长，2023年被同党控制的得克萨斯州众议院弹劾、后经州参议院宣判无罪，根据得克萨斯南方大学的民调，57%的可能选民对其持负面看法，仅42%持正面看法。特朗普在初选中支持他，而非连任四届的参议员约翰·科宁。如果帕克斯顿败选，那将是共和党人部分自找的伤口。阿拉斯加的奇特案例阿拉斯加在总统大选中投给共和党，但长期保持着独立倾向。
The embattled attorney general, impeached by his own party in the Texas House in 2023 and acquitted by the state Senate, is viewed unfavourably by 57% of likely voters and favourably by just 42%, according to Texas Southern University. Trump backed him over four-term Senator John Cornyn in the primary. If Paxton loses, it will be a wound Republicans partly inflicted on themselves. The curious case of AlaskaAlaska votes Republican for president, but it has a long independent streak.
2022年，该州选民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉进入众议院。这一次，佩尔托拉正在挑战参议员丹·沙利文，最新《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调显示，她以48%对46%领先。同样，差距在误差范围内。
It sent Democrat Mary Peltola to the House in 2022. This time, Peltola is challenging Senator Dan Sullivan, and she leads 48% to 46% in the latest New York Times/Siena poll. Again, within the margin of error.
接着出现了另一位丹·沙利文。《纽约时报》上周报道，民主党操盘手——包括佩尔托拉的高级助手和民主党参议院竞选委员会的官员——招募了退休教师丹尼尔·J·沙利文作为搅局候选人参选，以迷惑选民。堆叠候选人名单通常合法，但光学效应极差。佩尔托拉否认参与其中。州长迈克·邓利维已下令展开刑事调查，司法部曾试图起诉以阻止阿拉斯加在沙利文落选时认证结果，但未获成功。
Then came the other Dan Sullivan. The New York Times reported last week that Democratic operatives, including senior Peltola aides and officials at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, recruited Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher, to run as a spoiler and confuse voters. Ballot-stacking is generally legal, but the optics are terrible. Peltola denies involvement. Governor Mike Dunleavy has ordered a criminal investigation and the Justice Department sued, unsuccessfully, to stop Alaska certifying the result if Sullivan loses.A trick meant to take votes from Sullivan could end up costing Peltola the race, or the legitimacy of her win.
一个本意从沙利文手中抽走选票的伎俩，最终可能让佩尔托拉输掉比赛，或让她的胜利合法性受损。预计若佩尔托拉获胜，特朗普总统将猛烈抨击选举结果。堪萨斯州：讲坛上的牧师自1932年以来，堪萨斯州从未选民主党人进入参议院。今年，民主党派出亚当·汉密尔顿——全美最大卫理公会教堂的资深牧师——对阵参议员罗杰·马歇尔。根据RealClearPolitics的平均民调，汉密尔顿领先4.1个百分点。
Expect President Trump to aggressively attack the result should Peltola win. Kansas: A pastor in the pulpitKansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. This year, the Democrats are running Adam Hamilton, the senior pastor of the largest Methodist congregation in the country, against Senator Roger Marshall. Hamilton leads by 4.1 points in the RealClearPolitics average.
即便是《华盛顿邮报》自家民调显示汉密尔顿领先10个百分点，其民调专家也警告称，民主党选民响应调查的意愿远高于共和党选民。
Even the Washington Post's pollsters, whose own survey had Hamilton 10 points ahead, caution that Democrats were far more eager to respond than Republicans.
但在特朗普以两位数优势获胜的州，一位数的竞争态势就是一个警示。
But in a state Trump won by double digits, a single-digit race is a warning.
其他州的形势在缅因州，特洛伊·杰克逊在 RealClearPolitics 的平均民调中以 3.6 个百分点领先参议员苏珊·柯林斯——但永远不要低估柯林斯参议员，她有制造选举冷门的历史。爱荷华州势均力敌，在《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的民调中，乔什·图雷克获得 48%，阿什利·辛森获得 47%。在南卡罗来纳州，参议员达琳·格雷厄姆在 RealClearPolitics 的平均民调中以 2.6 个百分点领先民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯；格雷厄姆于 7 月在其兄长林赛去世后获委任。
The rest of the map In Maine, Troy Jackson leads Senator Susan Collins by 3.6 points in the RealClearPolitics average—but never underestimate Senator Collins, who has a history of pulling off electoral upsets. Iowa is a coin flip, with Josh Turek at 48% and Ashley Hinson at 47% in the New York Times/Siena poll. In South Carolina, Senator Darline Graham, appointed in July after the death of her brother Lindsey, leads Democrat Annie Andrews by 2.6 points in the RealClearPolitics average.
内布拉斯加州给共和党留出的喘息空间最大，在最新的《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调中，参议员皮特·里基茨以 6 个百分点领先独立候选人丹·奥斯本。
Nebraska offers Republicans the most breathing room, with Senator Pete Ricketts leading independent Dan Osborn by six points in the latest Times/Siena poll.
密歇根州：共和党的救命稻草？如果共和党要守住参议院多数席位，密歇根州可能就是他们实现这一目标的地方。在 RealClearPolitics 的“势均力敌”栏目中，这是唯一一个由民主党把持的席位，该州的投票记录是：投给特朗普、又投给拜登、再投给特朗普。随着参议员加里·彼得斯退休，共和党若获胜将迫使民主党必须再翻转五个席位。
Michigan: The Republican lifeline? If Republicans are to hold the Senate, Michigan may be where they do it. It is the only Democratic-held seat in RealClearPolitics' toss-up column, in a state that voted Trump, Biden, Trump. With Senator Gary Peters retiring, a Republican win would force Democrats to find five flips.
民主党提名人是阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德，一位进步派前公共卫生官员，获伯尼·桑德斯和亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯背书，共和党将他与美国民主社会主义者组织联系在一起。作为以色列的坚定批评者，他承诺反对美国对以色列的进一步援助。他的政纲依然包括“全民医保”和废除移民及海关执法局（ICE），但在竞选演说中，他已用民粹主义主张取代了左翼议程。
The Democratic nominee is Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive former public health official backed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whom Republicans tie to the Democratic Socialists of America. A staunch critic of Israel, he has pledged to oppose further US aid to the country. His platform still includes Medicare for All and abolishing ICE, but on the stump, he has traded the left-wing agenda for a populist pitch.
自己党内有人批评得更狠。周日，国会众议员海利·史蒂文斯——埃尔-赛义德在民主党初选中险胜她——背书共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯，此前她被取消参加联合竞选活动的资格。参议院民主党领袖舒默称这是“卑鄙的背叛”。民主党参议员约翰·费特曼站在史蒂文斯一边，说埃尔-赛义德“有着我见过最严重的‘小个子综合征’”。
Some in his own party have been harsher. On Sunday, Congresswoman Haley Stevens, whom El-Sayed narrowly beat in the Democratic primary, endorsed Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate, after being disinvited from a joint campaign event. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer called it "a despicable betrayal". Senator John Fetterman, a fellow Democrat, took Stevens' side, saying El-Sayed has "the worst case of little man syndrome I've ever seen".
在 RealClearPolitics 的平均民调中，El-Sayed 仍以 5.3 个百分点领先，但 Trafalgar Group 的数据显示，他仅领先 1 个百分点。共和党在密歇根州获胜将是一场重大冷门，但其获胜路径比 El-Sayed 更为狭窄。关键在于投票率。
El-Sayed still leads by 5.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average, but data from Trafalgar Group has him just one point ahead. A Republican win in Michigan would be a major upset, but the path to it is narrower than El-Sayed's. It comes down to turnoutThis should have been a year in which Republicans kept the Senate.
本应是共和党守住参议院的一年。然而，选民对华盛顿、经济和特朗普的不满，使这场竞选变成了一场势均力敌、胜负难料的角逐。
Instead, dissatisfaction with Washington, the economy and Trump has turned it into a close race that could break either way.
按大多数指标衡量，民主党拥有热情优势。全国民调倾向民主党，但我们以前见过这种失误。问题在于哪种模型成立。2022 年，民调机构低估了民主党。2024 年，共和党的表现超过了大多数民调机构的预期。
By most metrics, Democrats hold the enthusiasm advantage. Polls have favoured the Democrats nationally, but we have seen that mistake before. The question is which model holds. In 2022, pollsters underestimated Democrats. In 2024, Republicans exceeded most pollsters' expectations.
这两种模型归根结底取决于同一件事：这种热情能否转化为选票。共和党希望遏制住蓝色浪潮。投票率将扭转局势，无论向哪一方。
Both models come down to the same thing: whether that enthusiasm becomes votes. Republicans hope to hold the blue wave at bay. Turnout will turn the tide, one way or the other.