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彭博社

通胀话题重回财报电话会议,呼应2022年冲击Inflation Talk Returns to Earnings Calls in Echo of 2022 Shock

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在当前的财报季中,通胀是美国企业界最关心的头等大事,相关词汇在财报电话会议上的提及次数有望创下自2022年价格冲击以来的最大增幅。

Inflation is top of mind for Corporate America this earnings season, with mentions on earnings calls on track for their biggest jump since the 2022 price shock.

根据彭博社基于当前数据做出的预测,标普500指数成份股公司的高管们在讨论第三季度业绩时,预计将有1100多次提及“通胀”一词或成本压力等相关术语。这将是自2022年中期(当时美国消费者价格指数已飙升至9%以上)以来最大的同比增长。

S&P 500 executives are set to cite the word, or related terms like cost pressure, more than 1,100 times in discussing third-quarter results, according to Bloomberg projections based on current data. That would be the biggest year-on-year change since mid-2022, when the US consumer price index had surged to over 9%.

尽管此番价格压力要小得多,但伊朗战争已推动燃料价格持续上涨。即便剔除食品和能源,10月份核心消费者价格指数的潜在衡量指标涨幅仍超预期。

While pricing pressures are much lower this time around, the war in Iran has driven a consistent rise in fuel prices. Even excluding food and energy, an underlying measure of the consumer price index rose by more than expected in October.

道富全球市场公司股票研究主管玛丽亚·韦特曼(Marija Veitmane)表示:“通胀再次成为每个人关注的焦点。许多公司都在艰难地将更高的成本转嫁给最终消费者,我们看到定价权正在受到侵蚀,并开始挤压利润率。”截至10月30日,市值占标普500指数约61%的公司已经公布了第三季度财报。1127次的预测提及量是根据目前财报电话会议中记录的691次推算出来的。

“Inflation is on everyone’s radar again,” said Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Global Markets. “A lot of companies are struggling to pass on higher costs to their end consumer, and we’re seeing an erosion of pricing power that’s beginning to squeeze profit margins.”Companies accounting for about 61% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization had reported third-quarter results through Oct. 30. The estimate of 1,127 mentions extrapolates from the 691 recorded in earnings calls so far.

由于通胀挤压了家庭预算,而较高的利率又增加了房贷、信用卡和汽车贷款的成本,面向消费者的股票受到的冲击最大。

Consumer-oriented stocks are among the most exposed as inflation squeezes household budgets, while higher interest rates add to the cost of mortgages, credit cards and car loans.

由于好时公司(Hershey Co.)警告称消费者支出可能会受到财务压力的影响(包括在万圣节期间),这家锐滋(Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups)花生酱杯制造商的股价于周四下跌了2.1%。福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Co.)也表示,由于通胀威胁到其皮卡和运动型多用途车业务带来的收益增长,明年的利润将趋于平稳。

Hershey Co. shares fell 2.1% on Thursday as the maker of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups warned consumer spending could be impacted by financial pressures, including during Halloween. Ford Motor Co. also said profit will level off next year as inflation threatens to erode gains from its pickup and sport utility vehicle business.

这些担忧出现之际,标普500指数已从10月初创下的纪录高位回落,尽管该指数今年仍上涨了约11%。不过,贝伦贝格银行策略师克里斯·阿姆斯特朗(Chris Armstrong)认为,任何市场疲软都可能进一步削弱消费者信心。

The concerns come as the S&P 500 has retreated from a record hit in early October, though the index remains up about 11% this year. But any market weakness could further dent consumer sentiment, according to Chris Armstrong, a strategist at Berenberg.

“如果股市开始下滑,与此同时汽油价格等因素推高通胀,这对信心的冲击程度可能比我们目前看到的更大,”他说。

“If you get the stock market rolling over at the same time as you have higher inflation with things like gasoline prices, that could start to have an impact on confidence to a greater degree than we’ve seen already,” he said.

其他行业也出现了开始感受到压力的迹象。在与分析师的电话会议上,卡特彼勒公司首席财务官凯尔·埃普利表示,这家工业企业“意识到成本通胀上升带来的潜在逆风”。他补充称,第四季度销售增长与去年同期相比将是“温和的”,股价随即下跌。

There’s also signs that other sectors are starting to feel the heat. On a call with analysts, Caterpillar Inc. Chief Financial Officer Kyle Epley said the industrials company was “aware of potential headwinds presented by higher cost inflation.”He added sales growth in the fourth quarter would be “moderate” compared with a year earlier, and the stock slumped.

利润率同样出现裂痕。据数据显示,约58%的标普500指数成分股第三季度净利润率超出预期,这一比例为2022年第四季度以来最低水平之一。

Profit margins are similarly cracking. About 58% of S&P 500 constituents have beaten net margin estimates for the third quarter, among the smallest proportions since the fourth quarter of 2022, according to data .

目前,一些公司对应对成本压力表达了乐观态度。零食制造商亿滋国际首席执行官德克·范德普特表示,虽然通胀“显然”萦绕在欧洲消费者心头,但“好消息是我们实现了正向的销量/结构增长”。该公司股价在财报发布后上涨近4%。

For now, some companies have struck an optimistic note about managing cost pressures. Snack maker Mondelez International Inc.’s Chief Executive Officer Dirk Van de Put said that while inflation was “clearly” high on the mind of European consumers, “the good news is that we have positive volume/mix growth.”The company’s shares rose nearly 4% after its report.

美联储也已发出信号,愿意进一步加息以抑制定价压力。掉期交易员完全预期在1月会议前加息。

The Federal Reserve has also signaled willingness to raise interest rates further to tame pricing pressures. Swaps traders are fully pricing in a hike by the January meeting.

对于EFG资产管理副首席投资官丹尼尔·默里而言,担忧的核心在于如果油价持续维持高位,可能出现滞胀。

For Daniel Murray, deputy chief investment officer at EFG Asset Management, the worry is centered around potential stagflation if oil prices remain persistently higher.

“虽然我们尚未看到通胀上升和失业率上升同时发生,但存在这样一种风险:某个时刻企业会触及一个拐点,被迫进行大规模裁员,”默里说。“临界点将是油价持续维持在每桶125美元左右以上。”

“While we have not yet seen rising inflation and unemployment at the same time, there is a risk that at some point companies hit an inflection point that forces a round of mass layoffs,” Murray said. “A tipping point would be if the oil price stayed sustainably above around $125 per barrel.”

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