布鲁塞尔——北约国家正为周二美国中期选举的最坏情况做准备。欧洲盟友担心，共和党失利可能促使特朗普总统大幅加强对北约的攻击，这五位北约外交官表示，他们均获准匿名，以便就这一敏感问题自由发言。
BRUSSELS — NATO countries are bracing for a worst-case scenario in the U.S. midterm elections Tuesday.
他们的担忧是，如果特朗普在国内政策上受到国会制约，作为美国军队总司令，他可能会在外交事务上寻求确立自己的遗产，而他在外交事务上拥有更大的自由度。三位外交官表示，这可能意味着从欧洲撤出数千名更多的美军。
European allies fear a Republican loss could spur President Donald Trump to dramatically step up his attacks on the alliance, according to five NATO diplomats, all of whom were granted anonymity to speak freely on the sensitive issue.
“通常，对跛脚鸭总统来说，外交政策是发泄不满和冒险主义的混合体，”一位高级欧洲国防官员表示。攻击北约“似乎是特朗普世界观中一贯的一部分”。
Their worry is that if he is restrained by Congress on domestic policy, Trump, as commander-in-chief of the U.S. military, may seek to cement his legacy on foreign affairs, where he has a freer hand. That could mean pulling thousands more troops out of Europe, three of the diplomats said.
然而，她表示，特朗普“仍然坚持认为，我们的北约盟友本应在伊朗战争中支持美国”，并补充说：“总统绝不会接受西方的受控衰落，并将继续毫不道歉地在国内外推进我们的利益。”
“Usually what happens to lame duck presidents is a mix of venting frustrations and adventurism in foreign policy,” said one senior European defense official. And attacking NATO “seems to be a consistent part of [the] Trump worldview.”
这些担忧凸显了跨大西洋紧张局势的加剧，此前美国切断了对乌克兰的星链卫星服务，特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京在中期选举前几周重新和解。进一步的攻击将给北约带来新的打击，而俄罗斯正在整个欧洲加强破坏行动和所谓的混合战争。
Yet he “remains firm that our NATO allies should have been there for the United States” over the war in Iran, she said, adding: “The President will never settle for the West’s managed decline and will continue to unapologetically advance our interests at home and abroad.”The worries underscore growing transatlantic tensions after a U.S. cutoff of Starlink satellite services for Ukraine and a fresh rapprochement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin weeks before the midterms. Further attacks would deal a fresh blow to NATO, just as Russia steps up its sabotage campaign and so-called hybrid war across Europe.
“他可能会非常愤怒，”一位北约外交官说。如果是这样，“他会非常严厉。”兵力、资金与乌克兰担忧的核心是即将进行的对欧洲驻军的审查，预计将在12月前完成。三位外交官表示，如果特朗普在国内立法受阻，他可能会大幅扩大撤军规模，以巩固其MAGA基本盘。
“He could be very pissed off,” said one of the NATO diplomats. If so, “he’ll be very harsh.”Forces, money and Ukraine At the heart of the concerns is an upcoming review of U.S. forces in Europe, expected by December. If Trump is blocked from legislating domestically, he may seek to significantly increase the scope of that pullback to rally his MAGA base, three of the diplomats said.
前北约官员、英国皇家联合军种研究所杰出研究员奥娜·伦格斯库表示，总统还可能决定将美国在欧洲大陆的持续军事存在，与欧洲接受美国支持的乌克兰和平协议挂钩。
The president could also decide to tie continued American presence on the continent to Europe accepting a U.S.-backed peace deal in Ukraine, said Oana Lungescu, a former NATO official and distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank.
她说：“所有这些事情——美国军力态势审查、乌克兰问题、欧洲安全秩序……以某种方式被视为与普京达成的一揽子大交易的一部分，这存在风险，将为欧洲安全制造非常危险的局面。” 2026年2月18日，士兵们登上直升机和两栖舰艇，在德国普特洛斯参加北约军事演习。| 法新社/盖蒂图片社 经由法比安·比默/联合摄影组 据外交官透露，特朗普还可能削减美国对北约共同经费的缴纳，限制北约支持的“乌克兰国防采购联合倡议”（PURL）采购武器计划，并进一步深化与俄罗斯的关系。
“There is a risk that all these things — the U.S. force posture review, Ukraine, European security order … somehow are treated as part of a much bigger deal with Putin,” she said, “creating a very dangerous situation for security in Europe.”Soldiers aboard a helicopter and amphibious vessels take part in a NATO military exercise in Putlos, Germany on Feb. 18, 2026. | Pool photo by Fabian Bimmer via AFP/Getty Images Trump could also move to cut U.S. contributions to the alliance’s common funding, limit the NATO-backed PURL arms-buying scheme for Ukraine, as well as deepen ties still further with Russia, the diplomats said.
共和党遭遇重大选举失利，也可能给五角大楼带来巨大变化，进而对目前正在酝酿中的任何计划产生连锁影响。
A major electoral defeat for the Republicans could also spell big changes at the Pentagon, which would have knock-on effects for any plans currently being hatched in the building.
鉴于国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯拒绝定期向国会议员（尤其是民主党议员）通报预算和行动情况，他已成为国会中极不受欢迎的人物。
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has become a deeply unpopular figure in Congress, given his refusal to provide regular briefings about budgets and operations to lawmakers, especially Democrats.
这种不受欢迎引发了猜测：如果特朗普遭遇选举惨败，赫格塞斯可能会离职，部分原因是民主党主导的国会将对他解雇数十名将军和海军上将却无正当理由、以及伊朗战争陷入困境等问题展开调查。这些听证会和调查将束缚赫格塞斯及其团队的手脚，并可能给政府带来尴尬。
That unpopularity has led to speculation that Hegseth could be out after an electoral blowout for Trump, partially because a Democrat-led Congress would slap Hegseth with probes into his firing of dozens of generals and admirals with no cause, and the faltering war with Iran. Those hearings and investigations would hamstring Hegseth and his team, and could prove embarrassing for the administration.
如果赫格塞斯确实离职，五角大楼将经历一个过渡期，这可能会将关于从欧洲撤回美军的任何决定推迟数周或数月。
If Hegseth does move on, there would be a transition period in the Pentagon which could push any decisions about moving U.S. troops out of Europe back by weeks or months.
理论上，民主党控制众议院和参议院将限制特朗普的行动空间，即使是在外交和国防问题上，即便美国现行法律规定了在欧洲驻军的最低限额为76,000人。
In theory, a Democrat majority in the House and Senate would restrain Trump’s maneuverability even on foreign and defense issues, even if U.S. law currently imposes a minimum limit of 76,000 on troop presence in Europe.
但智库“国防优先”的高级研究员詹妮弗·卡瓦纳说：“至少驻军下限能否经得起法律审查是值得怀疑的，而且无论如何，特朗普非常愿意无视法院。”“特朗普政府经常无视国会的资金指引，将资金用于立法机构未授权的活动。”她说，如果特朗普决定实施更大规模的缩减，欧洲在替代包括电子战能力、防空系统、情报侦察支持、空中加油以及某些类型的后勤保障等资产方面将面临“最大的麻烦”。
But “it is doubtful that at least the troop floors would stand up to legal scrutiny and in any case Trump has been very willing to ignore the courts,” said Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow at the Defense Priorities think tank. “The Trump administration has regularly ignored funding guidance from Congress, spending money on activities the legislative branch has not authorized.”If Trump decides to impose a more sprawling drawdown, Europe will have “the most trouble” replacing assets including electronic warfare capabilities, air defense systems, intelligence and reconnaissance support, aerial refueling, and some types of logistics, she said.
其他盟友则更怀疑特朗普会重锤北约。“我们一直都在猜测特朗普……退出北约；但至今并未发生，”黑山国防部长德拉甘·克拉波维奇告诉《政治报》。“国会才是做决定的一方，关于减少驻欧美军做出最终决定的是国会。”
Other allies are more skeptical Trump would hammer NATO. “We have had speculations all the time about Trump ... coming out of the NATO; this has not happened so far,” Montenegrin Defense Minister Dragan Krapović told POLITICO. “Congress is the one making the decision, the final decision about less troops in Europe.”
但“一位北约第六位外交官”说：“要做出高成功概率的假设，需要一个做出理性决策的研究对象。我认为目前的美国总统（POTUS）并不符合这一条件。”北约和美国国防部未回应《政治报》的置评请求。
But “to make assumptions with a high probability of success needs an object of study that makes rational decisions,” said a sixth NATO diplomat. “I don’t think we are there with the current POTUS.”NATO and the U.S. Department of Defense did not respond to requests for comment by POLITICO.