
美联储10月会议后,主席凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)公布了一项变革,将减少利率决策投票的次数。此举可能意味着消费者需要等待更长时间才能看到借贷成本下降。
After the Federal Reserve meeting in October, Chairman Kevin Warsh unveiled changes that would reduce the number of rate-setting votes. The move could mean consumers wait longer for their borrowing costs to come down.
经济学家表示,由于沃什还实施措施限制所谓的前瞻性指引,消费者可能会更多地受到缺乏透明度的影响。
Economists say consumers may be even more affected by the lack of transparency, as Warsh also implements measures to curtail so-called forward guidance.
美联储上周维持基准利率不变后,美联储主席凯文·沃什宣布计划在未来两年内减少利率决策投票的次数。一些专家表示,此举可能会延长普通美国人看到借贷成本调整的时间线。
After the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady last week, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh announced plans to reduce the number of rate-setting votes over the next two years. That move could potentially extend the timeline for everyday Americans to see borrowing costs adjust, some experts say.
咨询公司Post Oak Group执行董事詹姆斯·弗拉查斯(James Vrachas)表示:“2027年美联储会议减少可能意味着,当借贷成本处于高位时,消费者需要等待更长时间才能看到缓解。”
"Fewer Fed meetings in 2027 could mean consumers wait longer to see relief when borrowing costs are elevated," said James Vrachas, executive director at advisory firm Post Oak Group.
美国人可能感觉与美联储有些距离,但央行的举措会对许多类型的消费产品产生连锁反应,包括信用卡、住房贷款和汽车融资的借贷利率。
Americans may feel somewhat removed from the Fed, but the central bank's moves have a ripple effect on many types of consumer products, including the borrowing rates for credit cards home loans and auto financing.
负担能力危机并非平等地冲击所有选民。原因如下:中期选举:负担能力和经济如何影响选民决策 这些参议院竞选可能有助于决定社会保障的命运 社会保障:如果国会不采取行动,受益人可能损失多少资金 CNBC金融顾问100强:2026年最佳金融顾问、顶级公司排名 CNBC精英顾问:2026年顶级超高净值财富管理公司 例如,大多数信用卡采用与基准利率挂钩的浮动利率,而基准利率会随美联储的基准利率变动。
The affordability crisis isn't hitting all voters equally. Here's why Midterm election: How affordability and the economy could affect voters' decisions These Senate races may help determine the fate of Social Security Social Security: How much money beneficiaries may lose if Congress does nothing CNBC's Financial Advisor 100: Best financial advisors, top firms for 2026 ranked CNBC Elite Advisors: Top ultra-high net worth wealth management firms for 2026 For example, most credit cards have variable rates tied to the prime rate, which moves with the Fed's benchmark.
然而,根据LendingTree的数据,即使央行维持利率不变,发卡机构为规避风险,信用卡利率仍在小幅上升。
However, even with the central bank holding rates unchanged, credit card rates are edging higher as issuers protect themselves from risk, according to LendingTree.
信用卡发卡机构正在降低其面临的风险敞口,以应对可能因日常开支顽固通胀而拖欠还款或违约的借款人,LendingTree首席信用分析师马特·舒尔茨表示。
Card issuers are mitigating their exposure from borrowers who may fall behind on payments or default in the face of stubborn inflation in everyday expenses, said Matt Schulz, LendingTree's chief credit analyst.
舒尔茨说,一般来说,除非受到美联储行动的推动,否则发卡机构降低利率的速度很慢:“发卡机构会在其他时候在边际上稍微调整一下利率,但大幅调整通常只会在发卡机构受到推动时才会发生。”10月28日,央行投票决定将基准借贷利率维持在3.75%至4%的当前目标区间,因为政策制定者在通胀仍远高于美联储2%目标的情况下商议后续步骤。
Generally, card issuers are slow to bring rates down, unless prompted by the Fed's actions, said Schulz: "Issuers will tinker with rates a bit at the margins at other times, but the big moves tend to only come when issuers are pushed." On Oct. 28, the central bank voted to keep the benchmark borrowing rate at the current target range of 3.75% to 4% as policymakers deliberated next steps with inflation remaining well above the Fed's 2% goal The Fed will keep meeting eight times a year, Warsh said at the news conference following the October meeting, but next year, one of the eight meetings will not entail a vote on interest rates or include a post-meeting statement.
沃什在10月会议后的新闻发布会上表示,美联储将继续每年召开八次会议,但明年八次会议中的一次将不涉及利率投票,也不包含会后声明。“战略”会议在随后一年将增加到两次,使得调整利率的机会仅剩六次——紧急会议除外(如有必要)。
The "strategy" meetings will increase to two the following year, leaving just six opportunities to adjust rates — with the exception of emergency meetings, if necessary.
“对消费者而言,这可能意味着围绕借贷成本的不确定性期将更长,”UBS高级财富策略助理乔丹·里恰迪说。“我们想要买房、再融资抵押贷款或为企业融资的客户可能会受到影响,因为预定的调整机会减少意味着美联储对不断变化的经济状况的反应不如以前快。”Post Oak Group的弗拉查斯也表示,随着调整利率的预定机会减少,即使经济状况开始改善,借贷利率也可能顽固地维持在高位更长时间。
"For consumers, that could mean longer periods of uncertainty around borrowing costs," said Jordan Ricciardi, a senior wealth strategy associate at UBS. "Our clients looking to buy a home, refinance a mortgage or finance a business could be impacted as fewer scheduled opportunities means the Fed isn't as quickly responding to changing economic conditions." Borrowing rates may stay elevated for longer With fewer scheduled opportunities to adjust rates, that means borrowing rates could remain stubbornly high even if economic conditions begin to improve, Post Oak Group's Vrachas also said.
他补充道,就目前而言,金融机构可以在市场条件允许时随时调整利率,而不管美联储的会议日程。但与此同时,许多消费者在抵押贷款、汽车贷款和信用卡债务等金融产品上可能继续面临较高的借贷成本。
As it stands, financial institutions can adjust rates whenever market conditions warrant, regardless of the Fed's meeting schedule, he added. In the meantime, though, many consumers may continue to face elevated borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans and credit card debt, among other financial products.
“对消费者而言,更大的担忧不一定是会议变少,而是贷款机构是否会像传递加息那样,同样迅速地将更低的借贷成本传递给消费者,”Vrachas 说。
"For consumers, the bigger concern isn't necessarily fewer meetings, but whether lenders pass along lower borrowing costs as quickly as they pass along increases," Vrachas said.
“沃什把他的底牌捂得更紧” 经济学家表示,由于沃什采取措施限制所谓的前瞻指引——即美联储如何发出未来利率动向的信号——缺乏透明度可能会对消费者产生更大的影响。
'Warsh keeps his proverbial cards closer to his chest' Consumers may be even more impacted by the lack of transparency, economists say, as Warsh implements measures to curtail so-called forward guidance, or how the Fed signals its future rate moves.
尽管经济形势变得更加复杂,信息也更容易获取,但“沃什把他的底牌捂得比他最近的几位前任都要紧”,经济分析师、《汉姆里克简报》(The Hamrick Brief,一份周刊)创始人马克·汉姆里克(Mark Hamrick)说。
Although economic conditions have become more complicated and information is more widely available, "Warsh keeps his proverbial cards closer to his chest than his recent predecessors have," said Mark Hamrick, an economic analyst and founder of The Hamrick Brief, a weekly newsletter.
“我不指望消费者会看到市场利率的全貌仅仅因为美联储投票频率降低而发生改变,”他说。“但公众可能少了直接听取美联储解释其如何以及为何做出决策的机会,而这些决策塑造了他们借贷的成本和储蓄的收益。” 在此期间,“对消费者而言,最好的保护依然是货比三家,尤其是在储蓄账户和[定期存单]的最高收益率方面,”汉姆里克说。
"I wouldn't expect consumers to see the universe of market rates change simply because the Fed votes less often," he said. "But the public may have less opportunity to hear from the source about how and why the Fed is making the decisions that shape what they pay to borrow and what they earn on their savings." In the interim, "the best protection for consumers remains shopping around, particularly for the highest yields among savings accounts and [certificates of deposit]," Hamrick said.
Bankrate 数据显示,只要美联储维持利率不变,一些收益率最高的在线储蓄账户提供的利率高达 4% 甚至更高。“这是利率环境处于高位的一个好处:储户可以获得实实在在的更高收益,”汉姆里克说。
As long as the Fed keeps rates unchanged, some top-yielding online savings accounts are offering interest rates as high as 4% or more, Bankrate data shows "That's one of the upsides of an elevated interest rate environment: savers can earn meaningfully higher yields," Hamrick said.