数月来，共和党人一直知道，他们只有一次机会阻止2026年中期选举中出现“蓝色浪潮”。民主党在民调、舆论、候选人形象和选民动员方面占据优势。但共和党，像它经常做的那样一样，有钱。
For months, Republicans have known they have one shot at preventing a blue wave in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democrats has an advantage in polling, in public opinion, in candidate profiles, and voter mobilization. But the GOP, as it so often does, has the money.
“马斯克会花钱，”一位共和党筹款人几周前告诉我，他挥手不顾詹姆斯·塔拉里科将德克萨斯州两个参议院席位之一变成蓝色的日益增长的威胁。他没有错：在2026年选举周期中，共和党大捐款人埃隆·马斯克向全国各地的竞选投入了超过4亿美元，其中1.58亿美元用于支持塔拉里科的对手、德克萨斯州丑闻不断的总检察长肯·帕克斯顿的超级政治行动委员会。
“Musk will spend the money,” one Republican fundraiser told me a few weeks back, waving off the growing threat of James Talarico flipping one of Texas’ two Senate seats blue. He wasn’t wrong: In the 2026 cycle, Republican megadonor Elon Musk dropped more than $400 million into races nationwide, with $158 million of that going toward= super PACs supporting Talarico’s opponent, Texas’ scandal-prone Attorney General Ken Paxton.
但现在，在选举前夕，民主党顾问认为，马斯克将他们淘汰出局的最佳机会没有奏效。他们说，暗钱似乎没有掩埋塔拉里科——全国各地的其他候选人也似乎在保守派支出的猛烈攻势中守住了阵地。
But now, on the eve of the election, Democratic consultants think that Musk’s best shot at taking them out of the race failed to land. The dark money, they say, doesn’t seem to have buried Talarico — and other candidates around the country also seem to be holding their own in the face of an onslaught of conservative spending.
“我们感觉好得不能再好了，”德克萨斯州民主党战略家、龙舌兰民主党基础设施基金联合创始人卢克·沃福德说。
“We’re feeling as good as we possibly could,” says Luke Warford, a Texas Democratic strategist and co-founder of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund.
尽管如此，德克萨斯星项目（一家民主党战略团体）主任马特·安格尔说，巨额资金本身就是一个直接的担忧。“我和其他人一样担心，”安格尔说。“我们谁也没有幻想，认为我们能拥有和共和党一样多或更多的资金。”沃福德说，暗钱之山只能购买有限数量的攻击广告——而且攻击角度已经用烂了。由马斯克资助的政治行动委员会，如德克萨斯政治行动委员会和全国性的美国政治行动委员会，数周来一直在电视、广播、社交媒体和其他网络上轰炸塔拉里科，大多称他对德克萨斯州选民来说“过于激进”，并突出他关于堕胎、LGBTQ问题、“解体资本主义”和边境安全的观点。
Still, Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic strategy group, says the sheer volume of cash was an immediate concern. “I was worried about it just like everybody else,” Angle says. “None of us had any illusions that we’d have as much or more as the Republicans.”Warford says that the mountain of dark money can only buy so many attack ads — and the lines of attack are already played out. PACs funded by Musk, like the Texas PAC and the nationwide America PAC, have blasted Talarico on TV, radio, social media, and other networks for weeks, mostly calling him “too radical” for Texas voters and highlighting his views on abortion, LGBTQ issues, “dismantling capitalism,” and border security.
一则由帕克斯顿竞选团队直接制作的广告，展示了一个人工智能生成的塔拉里科亵渎《圣经》的画面。
One ad, directly produced by the Paxton campaign, features an AI-generated Talarico defacing a Bible.
“他们只是在重播2024年的老调重弹，”沃福德说。“但现在已经不是2024年了！”沃福德说，塔拉里科专门开展了一场旨在让自己免受此类支出影响的竞选活动，重点放在赢得媒体报道以及通过社交媒体与选民直接沟通上。他说，侧重电视的攻击性广告，如果投放在“白板”上——即名气不大、缺乏全国知名度的候选人——效果会更好。
“They’re just playing the hits from 2024,” Warford says. “But it’s not 2024 anymore!”Talarico has run a campaign specifically designed to insulate himself against this kind of spending, Warford says, focusing on earned media and direct communication with voters through social media. TV-focused attack ads, he says, work better if they’re “projected on a blank slate,” meaning a candidate with little name recognition or national profile.
“民主党人似乎从过去几个选举周期的失利中清醒过来了，”一名民主党竞选人员告诉我，并指出两党都在传统电视市场之外大力投入广告支出。“现在他们花钱更有策略了。”
“Democrats have kinda woken up from the losses of the last couple of cycles,” one Democratic operative tells me, noting that both parties are investing heavily in ad spends outside of traditional TV markets. “They’re spending much more strategically now.”
“基本面是民主党有机会的原因，”沃福德说。“如果选举势均力敌——没错，1亿美元的付费广告可能会赢得选举……但埃隆·马斯克能给肯·帕克斯顿买来五个百分点吗？”
“The fundamentals are the reason that Democrats have a shot,” Warford says. “If the election was a perfect tie — yeah, $100 million in paid ads might win the race… but can Elon Musk buy Ken Paxton five points?”
安格尔说，马斯克本人的介入是另一个叙事，塔拉里科和州长候选人吉娜·希诺霍萨已经能够利用这一点。马斯克与特朗普的密切关系，也使他的资金成为另一个例子，说明德克萨斯州共和党人“在出售自己的品牌，并变成全国性的共和党人。”
Angle says that Musk’s involvement itself is another narrative that Talarico and gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa have been able to exploit. Musk’s close ties to Donald Trump, as well, make his funding another example of Texas Republicans “selling their brand and becoming national Republicans.”
“他们[帕克斯顿和德克萨斯州共和党人]与特朗普和亿万富翁阶层紧密捆绑在一起，”安格尔说。“他们那个人名字里的T代表特朗普，而我们那个人名字里的T代表德克萨斯。”马斯克捐款的数额惊人——超过了历史上任何一位政治捐款人——但从某些方面来说，马斯克自身的声誉削弱了其影响力。
“They [Paxton and Texas Republicans] are super-glued to Donald Trump and the billionaire class,” Angle says. “The T by their guy stands for Trump and the T by our guy stands for Texas.”The amount Musk has contributed is staggering — more than any political donor in history — but Musk’s own reputation, in some ways, undercuts its impact.
“这笔钱带来了太多包袱，”沃福德说。“我想不出比世界首富在最后一刻试图拯救一个极其软弱且不受欢迎的候选人更恶劣的例子了。我是说，大家都知道那是埃隆·马斯克！”安格尔说，民主党人最大的优势之一是，共和党的金钱大炮在初选期间打了友军：现任参议员约翰·科宁在保拉克斯顿获得特朗普背书后输给了后者，而科宁此前也曾受益于一个庞大的暗钱渠道，该渠道在塔拉里科甚至还没上场之前就连续数月投放了关于保拉克斯顿的负面媒体报道。
“The money comes with so much baggage,” Warford says. “I could not think of a more egregious example than the world’s richest man trying to save an incredibly weak and unpopular candidate at the last minute. I mean, everyone knows it’s Elon Musk!”One of the biggest advantages Democrats have, Angle says, is that the Republican money cannon committed friendly fire during the primaries: Incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who lost to Paxton after the latter secured Trump’s endorsement, had also benefitted from a massive dark money spigot that pumped out months of negative media about Paxton before Talarico even came to the plate.
“那对肯·保拉克斯顿造成的伤害可能比任何其他事情都大，”安格尔说。
“That probably did more damage to Ken Paxton than anything else,” Angle says.
如果民主党人在周二获胜，他们将翻越一座这个国家从未见过的巨额资金大山。最后几天将会很紧张。我交谈过的一位策略师在我们通话时清楚地知道提前投票还剩多少分钟。“我们是得克萨斯州民主党人，”沃福德说。“我们以前也满怀希望。但这是我们一代人以来最好的机会。”
If Democrats pull off a win on Tuesday, they’ll have climbed over a mountain of cash larger than anything the country has ever seen. The last few days will be tense. One strategist I talked to knew exactly how many minutes of early voting still remained as of the time of our call“We’re Texas Democrats,” Warford says. “We’ve been hopeful before. But this is the best opportunity we’ve had in a generation.”