达拉斯——民主党人在得克萨斯州看到了一个罕见的突破口，而詹姆斯·塔拉里科正给他们带来多年来最清晰的机会，有望将该州两个参议院席位中的一个翻转为蓝色。如果他成功实现这一逆转，这位前教师兼长老会神学院学生可能会撬动得州红色壁垒的第一块砖。民调和筹款数据有助于解释民主党人为何看到了这种可能性。
DALLAS — Democrats see a rare opening in Texas and James Talarico is giving them their clearest shot in years at turning one of the state's two Senate seats blue. If he pulls off the upset, the former teacher and Presbyterian seminarian could knock the first brick loose in Texas’ red wall. The polling and fundraising figures help explain why Democrats see that possibility.
换个角度看，塔拉里科的民调领先幅度比2018年针对特德·克鲁兹时记录的差距更大——当年贝托·奥鲁尔克比几十年来任何民主党人都更接近赢得得州参议院席位。而那些与福克斯新闻数字频道交谈的人所展现出的现场热情，也印证了这些数字。
To put it in perspective, Talarico’s polling leads are wider than those recorded against Ted Cruz in 2018, when Beto O’Rourke came closer than any Democrat in decades to winning a Texas Senate race. And the enthusiasm on the ground from those who spoke with Fox News Digital backs up the numbers.
此外，塔拉里科的竞选团队在7月至9月期间筹集了6400万美元，是特朗普支持的候选人肯·帕克斯顿同期1800万美元筹款额的三倍多。自启动竞选以来，塔拉里科已筹集超过1.46亿美元。
What's more, Talarico’s campaign raised $64 million from July through September, more than three times Trump-backed candidate Ken Paxton’s $18 million haul over the same period. Since launching his campaign, Talarico has raised more than $146 million.
但帕克斯顿——现任州总检察长——获得了共和党外部团体向得州投入的超过2亿美元的支持，其中几乎全部由世界首富埃隆·马斯克出资。此外，据AdImpact数据，唐纳德·特朗普总统的主要超级政治行动委员会MAGA Inc.又花费了3370万美元投放支持帕克斯顿的广告。
But Paxton, currently the state's Attorney General, has enjoyed Republican outside groups pouring more than $200 million into Texas to support him, nearly all of it bankrolled by Elon Musk, the world’s richest man. Additionally, MAGA Inc., President Donald Trump’s principal super PAC, has spent another $33.7 million on ads backing Paxton, according to AdImpact.
在周四于达拉斯举行的集会上，塔拉里科强调了这一差距，将这场竞选描绘成大卫与歌利亚之战，告诉支持者们他们就是他对抗强大利益集团的武器。
At his Dallas rally on Thursday, Talarico underscored that divide by casting the race as a David and Goliath fight, telling supporters they were his weapon against powerful interests.
“大卫没有歌利亚那么高大强壮。他没有那么多武器，但他有希望。他有信念，他有一把投石索，”他说。“达拉斯，你们就是我的投石索。得州人民就是我的投石索。”塔拉里科的势头也在竞选活动中显现出来。
"David wasn’t as big or as strong as Goliath. He didn’t have as many weapons, but he had hope. He had faith and he had a slingshot," he said. "Dallas, you are my slingshot. The people of Texas are my slingshot." Talarico's momentum has also shown up on the campaign trail.
本周早些时候，塔拉里科在得州各地辗转奔波，先是在埃尔帕索停留，随后在米德兰和阿马里洛举行活动，并于周二在深红的卢博克吸引了超出预期的人群。
Earlier this week, Talarico hopscotched across Texas, stopping in El Paso before holding events in Midland and Amarillo and drawing a larger-than-expected crowd in deep-red Lubbock on Tuesday.
与此同时，特朗普当晚在约四英里外为帕克斯顿助选，并调整了自己集会的时间，使其与塔拉里科的活动的重叠。
Meanwhile, Trump campaigned with Paxton about four miles away that same night, shifting his rally time so it overlapped with Talarico’s event.
两场针锋相对的集会凸显了这场选战的分歧。塔拉里科的竞选团队表示，超过4000人报名参加他在拉伯克的集会，因此活动改到了更大的场地。
The dueling rallies put the race’s divide on display. Talarico’s campaign said more than 4,000 people signed up for his Lubbock rally, prompting a move to a larger venue.
“我知道今晚城里不止我们这一场活动，我感谢今晚到场的全部4000人，”塔拉里科10月27日在拉伯克的嘉年华中心说，“一个房间里能有这么多‘塔拉 freakos’，可真不少。”这位民主党候选人和他的支持者欣然接受了“Talafreako”这个绰号——它最初是共和党人和特朗普总统对他带有贬义的嘲讽。
"I know that we’re not the only show in town tonight, and I appreciate all 4,000 of you that showed up here this evening," Talarico said at the Fiesta Center in Lubbock on Oct. 27. "That’s a lot of Talafreakos in one room." The Democrat candidate and his supporters have embraced the moniker "Talafreako," a nickname first given to him as a derogatory dig by Republicans and President Trump.
在拉伯克参加塔拉里科集会的选民对福克斯新闻数字频道表示，特朗普多次到访得州表明共和党人感到焦虑；而帕克斯顿的支持者则依然确信，在一场代价高昂且充满争议、令共和党人在帕克斯顿与现任参议员约翰·科宁之间产生分裂的初选之后——科宁最终在5月的决选中被淘汰——得州仍将保持红色。
Voters at Talarico’s rallies in Lubbock told Fox News Digital that Trump’s repeated Texas visits signaled Republican anxiety, while Paxton backers remained confident the state would stay red after a costly and contentious primary that saw Republicans divided over Paxton and sitting Sen. John Cornyn, who was ultimately ousted in the May runoff. "Trump’s in Lubbock?
“特朗普在拉伯克？特朗普在得克萨斯州拉伯克？他害怕了，他害怕了，”一名支持者告诉福克斯新闻数字频道。
Trump’s in Lubbock, Texas? He’s scared, he is scared," one supporter told Fox News Digital.
来自弗里奥纳的娜塔莉称，特朗普在同一天举行集会，说明共和党人“紧张”。“我觉得这是做样子，像是故意挑他在这里的同一天来，”她说。
Natalie, from Friona, called Trump’s same-day rally a sign Republicans were "nervous." "I think it’s performative, like to come the exact same day as he is here," she said.
来自布朗斯维尔的珍妮在特朗普和帕克斯顿的集会外对福克斯新闻数字频道表示，这场选战“差距并不接近”，她预测“帕克斯顿会把塔拉里科打得落花流水”。
Jenny, from Brownsville, told Fox News Digital outside of Trump and Paxton's rally that the race was "not close" and she predicted that "Paxton will wipe the floor" with Talarico.
除了集会人群之外，达拉斯和拉伯克的一些塔拉里科支持者表示，帕克斯顿过去的法律争议以及被得州众议院弹劾的经历，影响了他们对这位共和党提名人的看法。
Beyond the rally crowds, some Talarico supporters in Dallas and Lubbock said Paxton’s past legal controversies and impeachment by the Texas House shaped their views of the Republican nominee.
“我们来这里是为了支持诚实、正派和正直，”达拉斯选民洛里对福克斯新闻数字频道表示。她过去曾投票给共和党。“这正是我们希望在一名候选人身上看到的品质，而我们认为塔拉里科集这些于一身。”
"We’re here in support of honesty, decency and integrity," Lori, a Dallas voter who has voted Republican in the past, told Fox News Digital. "That’s what we like to see in a candidate, and we think Talarico is all that in one."
乔治是一名土生土长的得克萨斯人，也参加了达拉斯的集会。他说，多年来关注得州政治让他感到“令人心碎”，并称塔拉里科是“一股清新的空气”。在拉伯克，乔治亚列举了塔拉里科的几项政策，称他“真实”。她还说，塔拉里科没有受到起诉是一个加分项，并将他与帕克斯顿作对比。
George, a lifelong Texan at the Dallas rally, said years of watching Texas politics had become "heartbreaking" and called Talarico "a breath of fresh air." In Lubbock, Georgia cited several of Talarico’s policies and called him "authentic." She also said his lack of an indictment was a plus, contrasting him with Paxton.
来自拉伯克的护士伊莱亚斯表示，帕克斯顿过去的争议以及被得州众议院弹劾的经历，让这位共和党提名人形象受损。
Elias, a nurse from Lubbock, said Paxton’s past controversies and impeachment by the Texas House reflected poorly on the Republican nominee.
“我认为这表明帕克斯顿是一个软弱的领导人，”伊莱亚斯对福克斯新闻数字频道说。“尽管他有不堪的过去，他本来有机会多少挽回自己，但他不算个男人，他无法为自己挺身而出。他需要特朗普老爹来支持他。”选举日是11月3日，问题在于塔拉里科能否将集会人群和民调领先转化为一场历史性的胜利。胜选将打破共和党对得州长达数十年的掌控。败选则会让民主党人仍在寻找让该州翻蓝的路径。
"I think it shows that Paxton is a weak leader," Elias told Fox News Digital. "He had a chance to kind of redeem himself despite his ugly past, but he’s not a man, he can’t stand up for himself. He needs daddy Trump to come and support him." With Election Day on Nov. 3, the question is whether Talarico can turn rally crowds and a polling lead into a historic win. A victory would crack the GOP’s decades long grip on Texas. A loss would leave Democrats still searching for a path to turn the state blue.