Getty Images 民主党寄望 37 岁的詹姆斯·塔拉里科 (James Talarico) 能终结共和党在德克萨斯州参议员选举中长达数十年的连胜纪录 21 分钟前德克萨斯州的美国参议员席位争夺战，可能成为决定明年哪个党派控制国会的关键因素——这本身就是一项重大奖赏——但对两党而言，其意义远不止于此。
Getty Images Democrats hope James Talarico, 37, could end a decades-long winning streak for Republicans in Texas Senate races 21 minutes ago The race for a US Senate seat in Texas may prove crucial in determining which party controls Congress next year – a significant prize in its own right - but for both parties it represents so much more than that.
对民主党来说，他们在全州范围选举中的连败纪录现已延续三十多年。在美国人口第二多的州，自由派已在荒野中徘徊了一代人。
For the Democrats, their losing streak in statewide elections now stretches back more than three decades. In the second most populous state in America, liberals have been in the wilderness for a generation.
但民调显示，他们的候选人、37 岁的詹姆斯·塔拉里科可能即将实现突破，自 1988 年以来首次将德克萨斯州的一个参议员席位变为“蓝色”（民主党掌控）。那将是民主党的梦想剧本——也是共和党潜在的噩梦。
But polls suggest their candidate, 37-year-old James Talarico, may be on the verge of breaking through and turning a Texas Senate seat blue for the first time since 1988. That would be a dream scenario for Democrats - and a potential nightmare for Republicans.
“如果民主党真的做到了，我认为这将引发大量的灵魂搜索，并给德克萨斯州乃至全国的共和党造成巨大的心理创伤，”总部设在德克萨斯州的共和党竞选策略师布伦丹·斯坦豪泽 (Brendan Steinhauser) 说。
"If the Democrats do pull it off, I think it's going to cause a lot of soul searching and a lot of psychological damage to the Republican Party in Texas and nationwide," said Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas-based Republican campaign strategist.
这些戏剧性的利害关系，有助于解释为何这场参议员竞选已跃升为美国历史上开支最大的竞选，总支出超过 5 亿美元。
These dramatic stakes help explain how this Senate race has rocketed to become the most expensive in US history, with total spending reaching more than half a billion dollars.
对塔拉里科而言，这是一位 2025 年还只是一名相对默默无闻的州级民主党候选人所实现的非凡崛起。
For Talarico, it has been a remarkable rise for a candidate who in 2025 was a relatively unknown state-level Democrat.
周二晚上，在德克萨斯州拉伯克 (Lubbock) 的菲耶斯塔中心 (Fiesta Center)，前来见这位说话轻声细语的前教师、曾立志成为基督教牧师后才从政的候选人的队伍，绕着大楼延伸至宽阔的停车场，一直排到繁忙的马路上。
At the Fiesta Center in Lubbock, Texas, on Tuesday night, the line to see the softly spoken former teacher, who studied to be a Christian minister before entering politics, stretched around the building and down the wide parking lot to a busy road.
两年前，这个约 25 万居民的尘土飞扬的西部平原小镇曾压倒性地投票给唐纳德·特朗普总统，如今一位主要民主党候选人在大选前夕造访，实属罕见。
In this dusty western plains town of about 250,000, which voted overwhelmingly for President Donald Trump two years ago, a visit from a major Democratic candidate on the eve of an election was unusual.
“看起来太不可思议了，”霍克利县民主党主席亚伦·冈萨雷斯说，该县与拉伯克县接壤。“这一次不一样了。”当塔拉里科走上舞台，面对估计有3000名现场支持者——另有约1000人在室外通过扩音器收听——他的竞选主张对许多全国性民主党人来说今年都很熟悉，只是带着得克萨斯州的特色。
"It's just so amazing to watch," said Aaron Gonzalez, the Democratic Party chair for Hockley County, which borders Lubbock. "This time is different." When Talarico took the stage before an estimated 3,000 supporters – with another thousand listening on speakers outside - his pitch was a familiar one for many national Democrats this year, albeit with a Texas twist.
他抨击保守派政治建制派，称其对普通美国人的经济困境漠不关心。他谴责大笔政治献金的腐蚀性影响。并承诺在参议院推进一项“全面反腐败议程”。
He railed against a conservative political establishment that he said is insensitive to the economic hardship of average Americans. He condemned the corrosive influence of big money in politics. And he promised to advance a "comprehensive anti-corruption agenda" in the Senate.
“得克萨斯人已准备好迎接变革，”他说。“我们受够了极端主义和腐败。我们受够了分裂的政治，已经准备好迎接新事物。”他最后两周竞选的口号——“目光坚定，满腔热血，必定不败”——取自《星期五夜之灯》，这是一部2000年代初广受欢迎的电视剧，讲述一支充满拼搏精神的得克萨斯州小镇高中橄榄球队的故事。
"Texans are ready for change," he said. "We are done with the extremism and the corruption. We're done with the politics of division, and we are ready for something new." The slogan for his final two weeks of campaigning – "clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose" – is taken from Friday Night Lights, a popular early 2000s TV show about a plucky small-town Texas high school football team.
他的音乐播放列表以带有浓重得州口音的乡村音乐为主。他推崇得州早餐卷饼，引用传奇得州歌手兼词曲作者莱尔·洛维特的名言，并频繁提及他的家族在该州已传承八代。
His music playlist leans heavily on twangy Texas country music. He celebrates Texas breakfast tacos, quotes legendary Texas singer-songwriter Lyle Lovett and frequently mentions that his ties to the state go back eight generations.
在拉伯克的观众席上，来自附近得克萨斯理工大学的学生安德鲁·罗宾森对所听到的内容表示赞赏。但这位26岁年轻人的乐观情绪，被他一生中目睹民主党人在该州反复尝试、反复未能站稳脚跟的经历所冲淡。
In the Lubbock audience, Andrew Robinson, a student from nearby Texas Tech University, liked what he heard. But the 26-year-old's optimism was tempered by an entire lifetime spent watching Democrats try, and fail, to get a toehold in the state.
“塔拉里科获胜意义重大，”他说。“我一直不太想留在得州。要是政府能换届，那可能会给我一个理由。”唐纳德·特朗普在2016年、2020年和2024年总统大选中均赢得了得克萨斯州。对共和党而言，民主党在得州获胜将意味着截然不同的含义。
"A Talarico win would mean so much," he said. "I haven't been keen on wanting to stay in Texas. And if the government were to change, it could give me a reason." Donald Trump won Texas in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 presidential elections For Republicans, a Democratic win in Texas would have a very different meaning.
就在塔拉里科在菲耶斯塔中心向支持者发表讲话的大致同一时间，特朗普——身旁站着共和党参议员候选人肯·帕克斯顿——距离那里仅几英里，正在一个面积大一倍的场馆举行集会。
At roughly the same time Talarico was addressing his supporters in the Fiesta Center, Trump – alongside the Republican Party's Senate candidate Ken Paxton – was just a few miles away, in a venue twice the size.
“如果你们出去投票，我们将在得克萨斯州取得巨大胜利，”总统对人群说道。
"If you go out and vote, we're going to have a tremendous win in Texas," the president told the crowd.
特朗普造访向来可靠的共和党大本营拉伯克，表明该党担心即使在该州最保守的地区，投票率也可能不足。其他得克萨斯州共和党人也表达了同样的担忧。
Trump's visit to reliably-Republican Lubbock suggests the party is concerned about turnout even in the most conservative portions of the state. It is a worry that has been echoed by other Texas Republicans.
“明白这一点，我们可能会失去得克萨斯州，”得克萨斯州参议员特德·克鲁兹周五在其播客节目中说。“民主党人在动员选民方面大幅领先于共和党人。”
"Understand, we could lose Texas," Texas Senator Ted Cruz said in his podcast on Friday. "The Democrats are massively out-turning-out the Republicans."
竞选州首席财务官的唐·哈芬斯发出了更为严峻的警告。“得克萨斯州是美国共和党的基石，”他在社交媒体上发帖称，“基石一旦崩塌，一切都会土崩瓦解。一旦我们失去得克萨斯州，我们就失去了美国。”数周来，党内领袖一直警告称，自由派在“孤星州”取得突破可能导致严重后果。
Don Huffines, who is running for election as the state's chief financial officer, issued an even more dire warning. "Texas is the foundation of the Republican Party in America," he posted on "When the foundation breaks, it all falls apart. When we lose Texas, we lose the USA." For weeks now, party leaders have been warning that a liberal breakthrough in the Lone Star State could have dire consequences.
他们担心，塔拉里科一旦获胜，将激励更多本地民主党人竞选全州范围和联邦层面的公职。素质更高、资金更充足的候选人可能引发滚雪球效应，类似于民主党在佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州和弗吉尼亚州等其他南方州取得的进展。
They fear a Talarico win would motivate more local Democrats to run for statewide and federal offices. Better quality candidates with more funding could lead to a snowball effect similar to the Democratic inroads seen in other southern states, such as Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia.
“我认为很清楚，共和党人，尤其是候选人、顾问、操盘手以及党内其他活跃分子，都认为这是一个真正的威胁，”斯泰因豪泽说。
"I think that it's pretty clear that Republicans, especially candidates, consultants, operatives, and others who are active in the party, see that this is a real threat," said Steinhauser.
“挥挥手就把这事打发了、说得克萨斯州永远不会变蓝的日子已经一去不复返了。”共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿获得了特朗普的背书——他在得克萨斯州政坛也有一些过往争议 要让得克萨斯州参议院竞争发展到最近民调显示塔拉里科拥有微弱但稳定领先优势的地步，需要一系列独特的事件和政治动态汇聚在一起——用斯泰因豪泽的话说，这是一场“完美风暴”。
"The days of waving this off and saying that Texas would never turn blue are over." Republican candidate Ken Paxton has a Trump endorsement - and some past controversies in Texas politics For the Texas Senate race to come to the point where recent polls suggest Talarico has a slim but stable lead has required a unique confluence of events and political dynamics – a "perfect storm", in the words of Steinhauser.
“民主党能顺利的事都在顺利进行，”他说，“而共和党能出问题的事都在出问题。”但这场旋风在很大程度上，也是特朗普自己在过去一年播下的种子。共和党面临的全国环境十分严峻。
"Everything that could go well for the Democrats is going well," he said, "and everything that could go badly for the Republicans is going badly." But it is also a whirlwind that, in a significant part, has been sown over the past year by Trump himself. The national environment for Republicans is a harsh one.
选民对高昂的消费成本（包括汽油价格）感到沮丧，并主要归咎于特朗普的关税政策和伊朗战争。
Voters are frustrated with high consumer costs, including the price of petrol, and largely blame Trump's tariff policies and the Iran war.
政治腐败已成为日益受关注的问题。根据库克政治报告最近的一项民调，民主党人、独立人士和许多共和党人都将“贪婪的亿万富翁和企业”以及谋求“私利”的政客视为罪魁祸首。美国中期选举中，特朗普面临什么利害得失？得克萨斯州特有的问题也为执政党制造了敌对氛围。
Political corruption has become an issue of growing concern. Democrats, independents and many Republicans in a recent Cook political report poll identified "greedy billionaires and corporations" and politicians seeking "personal gain" as the ones to blame. What's at stake for Trump in the US midterms? Texas-specific issues have also contributed to a hostile climate for the in-power party.
民调和得克萨斯州最近的特别选举显示，西班牙裔选民——其中许多人在2024年转而支持特朗普，助其赢得白宫——已对政府的移民执法政策感到失望。
Polling and recent special elections in Texas indicate that Hispanic voters –many of whom switched to Trump to help him win the White House in 2024– have soured on the administration's immigration enforcement policies.
西班牙裔占该州人口近三分之一——在得克萨斯州为期一周多的提前投票中，他们以历史性的大量数字投出了选票。
Hispanics make up nearly a third of the state's population - and in more than a week of early voting in Texas, they have been casting ballots in historically large numbers.
得克萨斯州共和党曾大力宣传数据中心建设是该州受欢迎的投资，但这项建设招致了广泛批评，尤其是在传统上坚定保守的农村地区。
Data centre construction, which Texas Republicans had touted as a welcome investment in the state, has drawn widespread criticism, particularly in rural areas that have traditionally been solidly conservative.
得克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特正面临艰难的连任竞选，他最近宣布在该州暂停人工智能建设一年——这反映出该问题迅速成为政治累赘。
Texas Governor Greg Abbott, in his own tight re-election race, recently announced a one-year moratorium on AI construction in the state – a reflection of how quickly the issue has become a political liability.
“这对共和党不利，”一位要求匿名的德克萨斯州政治策略师对BBC表示。“我们现在要求选民做出很大的让步，以便我们继续掌权。”还有帕克斯顿带入这场竞选的包袱，他在今年早些时候一场激烈的初选中击败了长期任职的参议员约翰·科宁。
"It's bad for Republicans," one Texas political strategist, who asked to remain anonymous, told the BBC. "We're asking a whole lot of the electorate at this point for us to continue to be the guys in charge." Then there's the baggage that Paxton, who defeated longtime incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a contentious primary campaign earlier this year, brings to the race.
这位63岁的共和党人成功将74岁的科宁描绘成年事已高、与德克萨斯州保守派脱节。就在击败科宁的决选胜利前几天，他获得了特朗普的背书，得到了最后关头的助力。
The 63-year-old Republican successfully painted the 74-year-old Cornyn as too old and too out-of-touch with Texas conservatives. He received a late boost, just days before his run-off election victory over Cornyn, in the form of a Trump endorsement.
“肯·帕克斯顿经历了很多，在许多情况下非常不公平，但他是一名斗士，懂得如何获胜，”特朗普在Truth Social上写道。“我们的国家需要斗士，也需要对伟大事业的忠诚。”总统提到的帕克斯顿经历的“很多”包括2015年因证券欺诈罪名被联邦起诉——后来被撤销——以及2023年由共和党控制的德克萨斯州众议院以腐败、受贿和滥用职权罪名弹劾。
"Ken Paxton has gone through a lot, in many cases, very unfairly, but he is a Fighter, and knows how to WIN," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "Our Country needs Fighters, and also Loyalty to the Cause of Greatness." The "a lot" the president referenced Paxton going through includes a 2015 federal indictment on charges of securities fraud – later dropped – and a 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives on corruption, bribery and abuse of power charges.
在特朗普干预向州共和党领导人施压后，德克萨斯州参议院后来宣判帕克斯顿无罪。
The Texas Senate would later acquit Paxton after Trump intervened to pressure state Republican leaders.
所有这些意味着帕克斯顿在德克萨斯州拥有不少批评者——和敌人——包括党内人士。
All of this has meant that Paxton has more than a few critics – and enemies - in Texas, including within his own party.
相比之下，塔拉里科已被证明是一位有效的候选人。这位州议员在民主党初选中击败了知名对手、达拉斯联邦众议员贾丝明·克罗克特。
Talarico, by contrast, has proven to be an effective candidate. The state legislator defeated a well-known opponent, Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, in the Democratic primary.
自获得提名以来，尽管面临猛烈的负面广告攻势——其中大部分由总部设在德克萨斯州的世界首富埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX公司资助——他一直保持着民调领先优势。
Since earning the nomination, he has maintained his polling lead despite a withering onslaught of negative advertising - much of it funded by the world's richest man Elon Musk, whose SpaceX company is based in Texas.
仅马斯克一人就向这场竞选投入了超过1.7亿美元，特朗普的“让美国再次伟大”公司委员会（MAGA Inc.）投入了4000万美元。
Musk alone has funnelled more than $170m into the race Trump's MAGA Inc. committee has chipped in $40m.
尽管帕克斯顿已被证明是一位无效的筹款人，但为他花费的第三方资金已覆盖该州的广播电波——甚至蔓延到全美转播的涉及德克萨斯州球队的体育赛事中。
While Paxton has proven to be an ineffective fundraiser, the third-party money spent on his behalf has blanketed the airwaves in the state – spilling over into sporting events involving Texas teams that air across the nation.
这些团体以塔拉里科过去支持跨性别者的言论、将“激进化的白人男性”称为国内恐怖主义威胁、以及批评化石燃料和牛肉产业——该州两大势力利益集团——为攻击目标。
They have targeted Talarico for his past comments supporting transgender people, for calling "radicalised white men" a domestic terrorism threat and for criticising the fossil fuel and beef industries – two powerful interests in the state.
塔拉里科已与其中一些早期言论划清界限，辩称许多言论被断章取义，“偏离了重点”，或是“故意挑衅”抑或“令人尴尬”。
Talarico has distanced himself from some of those earlier comments, arguing many were taken out of context and "missed the mark" or were "deliberately provocative" or "cringy".
与此同时，这位德克萨斯州民主党人已被证明是一位历史性的成功筹款人，在其竞选过程中累计募集捐款超过1.4亿美元，并创下参议院候选人三个月筹款纪录。
Meanwhile, the Texas Democrat has proven to be a historically successful fundraiser, amassing more than $140m in donations over the course of his campaign and setting a three-month fundraising record for a Senate candidate.
这笔资金使塔拉里科能够反击帕克斯顿，凸显其过往争议，并为自己抵御共和党的攻击。
The funding has allowed Talarico to hit back at Paxton, highlighting his past controversies, and defending himself from Republican attacks.
他经常强调自己的宗教成长背景——作为一位南方浸信会牧师的孙子，曾在神学院求学——在竞选演讲中穿插引用《圣经》章节。
He frequently leans into his religious upbringing – as the grandson of a Southern Baptist preacher who spent time in a seminary – leavening his stump speeches with biblical references.
最近他特别偏爱一段经文——《旧约》中大卫与巨人歌利亚对决的熟悉故事。
There is one particular passage Talarico has been partial to of late – the familiar Old Testament showdown between scrappy David and the giant Goliath.
“我们正面对着我们自己的歌利亚，”他在拉伯克说，“亿万富翁大额捐赠者、企业特殊利益集团、整个华盛顿特区建制派。他们的力量是真实的，但我们的力量也是真实的。”但德克萨斯州民主党人的力量在过去曾被高估。2018年，联邦众议员贝托·奥罗克创下自己的历史性筹款数字，引发全国高度关注，最终却以略超2%的差距输给了德克萨斯州联邦参议员克鲁兹。
"We are going up against our own Goliaths," he said in Lubbock. "The billionaire mega-donors, the corporate special interests, the entire Washington DC establishment. Their power is real, but so is ours." But the power of Texas Democrats has been overestimated in the past. In 2018, Congressman Beto O'Rourke posted his own historic fundraising numbers, generated serious national attention and ultimately lost to Texas Senator Cruz by just over 2%.
塔拉里科的民调领先优势虽然稳定，但在大多数调查中仍处于误差范围边缘。而共和党最后时刻的呼吁，以及特朗普反复造访助选，可能会激励更多保守派在选举日出来投票，从而抹平民主党在提前投票方面的任何优势。
Talarico's polling lead, while stable, continues to rest near the margin of error in most surveys. And last-minute Republican appeals, as well as Trump's repeated campaign visits, could spur conservatives to turn out in greater numbers on election day, erasing any Democratic early voting advantages.
周二，在阿马里洛举行的塔拉里科集会上，退休教师特里·米尔斯坐在狭小的民主党竞选办公室里，聆听候选人的竞选演说。
Inside the tiny Democratic Party office at a Talarico rally in Amarillo on Tuesday, retired schoolteacher Terri Mills listened to the candidate's stump speech.
尽管她承认民主党几十年来屡战屡败、屡见曙光又破灭，但她说自己这次又允许自己对民主党获胜抱有希望。
Despite acknowledging the decades of Democratic futility and false dawns, she said she was allowing herself to hope for a Democratic victory once again.
“我以前也抱过希望，你知道，”她说。“但我确实觉得这一次有点不一样。”
"I have gotten my hopes up before, you know," she said. "But I do feel that this time is a little different."
想跟踪特朗普第二任期的跌宕起伏，请订阅北美记者安东尼·祖彻的《美国政治不设限》通讯。英国读者可在此注册，英国以外读者可
Follow the twists and turns of Trump's second term with North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher's US Politics Unspun newsletter. Readers in the UK can sign up here Those outside the UK can