得克萨斯州沃思堡，10月30日——三十年来，得克萨斯州一直是民主党人巨大却未能实现的希望：这个幅员辽阔、变化迅速的州常常看似触手可及，却总是擦肩而过。
FORT WORTH, Texas, Oct 30 - Texas has been the Democratic Party’s great, unrealized hope for three decades: a vast and fast-changing state that often seems within reach, only to slip away.
在一场可能决定美国参议院控制权的中期选举前夕，民主党人再次梦想打破共和党对这个“孤星州”的牢牢掌控，尽管他们也在为心碎做准备。
On the eve of a midterm election that could decide control of the US Senate, Democrats are dreaming again about breaking the Republican stranglehold on the Lone Star State, even as they brace for heartbreak.
多数民调显示，民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科——37岁的州众议员、神学院学生、前学校教师——以微弱优势领先于共和党籍总检察长肯·帕克斯顿。在州长竞选中，民主党州众议员吉娜·伊诺霍萨仅落后于已连任三届的共和党州长格雷格·阿博特几个百分点。
Most polls show Democrat James Talarico, a 37-year-old state representative, seminarian and former schoolteacher, narrowly ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. In the governor's race, Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa is trailing three-term Republican Governor Greg Abbott by just a few points.
自1994年以来，还没有民主党人在得克萨斯州赢得全州公职，这是全国最长的干旱期。终结这一局面将产生远超这个拥有3100万人口的州的影响，在2028年一场完全开放的总统竞选之前重新绘制美国的政治版图。
No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994, the longest drought in the nation. Ending it would reverberate far beyond this state of 31 million people, redrawing America’s political map ahead of a wide-open contest for the presidency in 2028.
“这是自共和党霸权早期阶段以来，我们在这里看到的两党之间最具竞争性的选举，”得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校得克萨斯政治项目主任詹姆斯·亨森说。“如果塔拉里科或伊诺霍萨获胜，那将是一场政治地震。”自1972年以来，民主党人首次在每一场州和联邦选举中都有候选人，这证明该党表示自己正在投资于未来，而不仅仅是单个候选人。
“This is the most competitive election between the parties that we have seen here since the early stages of Republican hegemony,” said James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin (UT). “If Talarico or Hinojosa win, it’s a political earthquake.”For the first time since 1972, Democrats are contesting every state and federal race, testament to a party that says it is investing in its future rather than just individual candidates.
对党派分歧双方40多名选民、活动人士和组织者的采访揭示了共和党联盟中三个潜在的裂痕——被总统唐纳德·特朗普的移民突袭行动震动的拉丁裔；对帕克斯顿涉嫌婚内不忠感到不安的保守派女性；以及程度较轻的、因物价上涨和与伊朗的战争而受到挤压的共和党男性。
Interviews with more than 40 voters, activists and organizers on both sides of the partisan divide revealed three potential cracks in the Republican coalition -- Latinos jolted by President Donald Trump’s immigration raids; conservative women uneasy about Paxton’s alleged marital infidelity and, to a lesser degree, Republican men squeezed by rising prices and the war with Iran.
33岁的泰森·杰克斯是郊区三个孩子的父亲，他一直投给共和党的全套候选人。今年他尚未决定。“掌权的是保守派，但似乎什么也没有改变，”他说。
Tyson Jex, 33, a suburban father of three, has always voted a straight Republican ticket. This year he’s undecided. “We have conservative people in power, but it doesn’t seem like anything changes,” he said.
两套策略 许多得克萨斯州共和党人仍对11月3日的胜算充满信心，认为政治基本面依然对他们有利。
TWO PLAYBOOKS Many Texas Republicans remain confident in their chances on November 3, believing the political fundamentals are still in their favor.
根据得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的民调，约49%的得州选民认同或倾向共和党，而民主党为40%。
About 49% of Texas voters identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, compared with 40% for Democrats, according to UT polling.
然后是资金：根据联邦选举委员会的数据，共和党已花费超过3亿美元投放支持帕克斯顿的广告，使支持塔拉里科的1.02亿美元相形见绌。
Then there's the money: Republicans have spent over $300 million on ads supporting Paxton, dwarfing the $102 million spent for Talarico, according to FEC data.
阿博特的首席策略师、得州共和党竞选老手戴夫·卡尼补充说，该党的地面动员是刻意安排在后期达到高峰的。“我们一定会赢，绝对会，”他说，指的是两位共和党候选人。
Dave Carney, Abbott’s chief strategist and a veteran of Republican campaigns in Texas, added that the party’s ground game is peaking late by design. “We’re going to win, absolutely," he said, referring to both Republican candidates.
塔拉里科和伊诺霍萨则一直将重点放在生活成本以及埃隆·马斯克等亿万富翁过大的政治影响力上。马斯克向得州投入了近1.6亿美元，以支持帕克斯顿。
For their part, Talarico and Hinojosa have focused relentlessly on the cost of living and the outsize political influence of billionaires like Elon Musk, who poured nearly $160 million into Texas to buoy Paxton.
“我们之所以有 affordability 危机，是因为我们有腐败危机，”塔拉里科上周在坦普尔市的一次集会上说，现场掌声雷动。
“We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis,” Talarico said at a rally in the city of Temple last week to thunderous applause.
与此同时，共和党人则主打文化战争议题。在广告中，帕克斯顿猛烈抨击塔拉里科对跨性别者权利的支持，并因其进步派基督教信仰而称他为异端。
Republicans, meanwhile, have leaned into culture-war issues. In ads, Paxton has hammered Talarico over his support for transgender rights and branded him a heretic for his progressive Christianity.
上周，在达拉斯以北小镇桑格的一家啤酒厂为帕克斯顿举行的集会上，发言者将塔拉里科描绘成激进的左翼分子，并将这场选举的利害关系描述为生死攸关，从而激起了喧闹人群的情绪。
Rallying for Paxton last week at a brewery in the small town of Sanger, just north of Dallas, speakers riled up a raucous crowd by painting Talarico as a radical leftist and describing the election stakes as existential.
“如果我们这一轮输掉一场选举，得州将在我们余生中一直是摇摆州，”州众议员安迪·霍珀警告说。帕克斯顿和塔拉里科的竞选团队均未安排其候选人接受采访。
“If we lose one race this cycle, Texas will be a battleground state for the rest of our natural lives,” warned state Representative Andy Hopper. Neither the Paxton nor the Talarico campaign made its candidates available for an interview.
拉丁裔选民反弹 塔兰特县是沃斯堡市所在地，也是得克萨斯州大城市县中最保守的一个，被视为风向标。在2020年总统大选中，乔·拜登成为自1964年林登·约翰逊以来首位拿下该县的民主党人，以不到2000票的优势获胜；特朗普在2024年轻松将其夺回。共和党在拉丁裔和女性选民中面临的挑战在这里尤为突出。
LATINO BACKLASH Tarrant County, home to the city of Fort Worth, is the most conservative of Texas’ big urban counties and is seen as a bellwether. In the 2020 presidential race, Joe Biden was the first Democrat to carry it since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, winning by less than 2,000 votes; Trump easily won it back in 2024. The challenges facing Republicans among Latinos and women voters come into focus here.
出口民调显示，拉丁裔帮助特朗普在2024年拿下得克萨斯州，55%的拉丁裔选民把票投给了他，较民主党出现了急剧转向。
Latinos helped deliver Texas to Trump in 2024, giving him 55% of their votes in a dramatic swing away from Democrats, according to exit polling.
如今，他们的热情正以相反的方向高涨。UT民调显示，在可能投票的拉丁裔选民中，塔拉里科以54%对41%领先，伊诺霍萨以56%对42%领先。
Now, their enthusiasm is surging in the opposite direction. Among likely Latino voters, Talarico leads 54% to 41% and Hinojosa 56% to 42%, UT polling shows.
据主要与民主党合作的数据公司TargetSmart统计，截至周三，约有156万拉丁裔选民投了票，几乎是2022年中期选举同一时点投票人数的两倍。
About 1.56 million Latinos had cast ballots as of Wednesday, nearly double the number who had voted at the same point in 2022's midterms, according to TargetSmart, a data firm that works mainly with Democrats.
数据显示，拉丁裔约占提前投票选民的28%，高于四年前同一时点的20%，而白人选民、农村地区的投票率则明显落后于2022年的水平。
Latinos make up roughly 28% of early voters, up from 20% at the same time four years ago, the data shows, while white, rural turnout is lagging significantly behind 2022 levels.
“拉丁裔投票率上升几乎肯定对民主党候选人有利，”该公司高级顾问汤姆·博尼尔说。
“Higher Latino turnout is almost certainly going to be good for the Democratic candidates,” said Tom Bonier, a senior adviser at the firm.
根据美国人口普查局的数据，尽管西班牙裔占得克萨斯州合格选民近三分之一，但他们在2024年的投票率落后非拉丁裔白人超过20个百分点。
While Hispanics account for nearly a third of Texas’ eligible voters, their 2024 turnout trailed that of non-Latino whites by more than 20 points, according to the Census Bureau.
对像里克·阿雷东多这样的人来说，今年感觉不同。52岁的阿雷东多是沃斯堡拉丁裔聚居的北区的一名焊工。上周，他骑着自行车来到投票站，渴望在有生之年第一次投票。
This year feels different for people like Rick Arredondo, a 52-year-old welder in Fort Worth’s heavily Latino northside. He rolled up to a polling station on his bike last week, eager to vote for the first time in his life.
他说，在移民执法人员拘留并驱逐了他的邻居后，他将把票投给民主党人。
He said he would cast his ballot for Democrats after immigration agents detained and deported his neighbor.
“任何和我肤色一样的人都是可以随意针对的对象，”阿雷东多说道。他是在美国出生的公民，如今随身携带护照，生怕在突袭中被一并抓走。“政治终于找上了我，找上了我这个小小角落。”在街那头，23岁的瓦妮莎·达莱说，她过去一直跳过选举不投票，但不会再犯同样的错误了。“这些驱逐行动让我变得激进，”她说。
“Anybody that’s my skin color is fair game,” said Arredondo, a US-born citizen who now carries his passport for fear of being swept up in a raid. “Politics finally reached me in my little corner of the world.”Down the street, Vanessa Dalay, 23, said she had skipped past elections but wouldn’t make the same mistake again. “The deportations have radicalized me,” she said.
对于35岁的房屋油漆工卡洛斯·龙基略来说，他在2024年投票支持了特朗普，而突袭行动引发的愤怒又因经济上的困顿而加剧。
For Carlos Ronquillo, a 35-year-old house painter who voted for Trump in 2024, his anger over the raids has been compounded by economic struggle.
“我有一辆柴油卡车，加满油要花200多美元，”龙基略在沃思堡一家店里修轮胎时说。“这已经够糟了。可接着又有移民及海关执法局把所有人都抓走，不只是他们说的那些罪犯。”为塔拉里科和伊诺霍萨竞选团队提供咨询的民主党策略师查克·罗查表示，在焦点小组讨论中，许多拉丁裔仍然支持关闭边境、驱逐违法者。
“I’ve got a diesel truck and I’m spending over $200 to fill it up,” Ronquillo said while getting a tire fixed at a Fort Worth shop. “That’s bad enough. But then you have ICE taking everybody, not just the criminals they said they would.”Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist advising the Talarico and Hinojosa campaigns, said that in focus groups that many Latinos still back closing the border and deporting lawbreakers.
“但我们谁也没同意让（移民及海关执法局）进到我们社区，抓走我们的表亲、我们的姑姨叔伯，”他说。
“But none of us signed up for (ICE) to be in our community, picking up our cousins and our aunts and uncles,” he said.
家事上的麻烦 共和党组织者表示，另一个问题正困扰着女性选民，而这个问题尤其针对帕克斯顿——他在特朗普的支持下于党内初选中击败了现任议员约翰·科宁。
TROUBLE AT HOME Republican organizers say a different issue is troubling women voters, one particular to Paxton, who beat incumbent John Cornyn in the party primary with Trump’s backing.
帕克斯顿的妻子、州参议员安吉拉·帕克斯顿去年以“圣经依据”为由申请离婚，指控他通奸。帕克斯顿拒绝公开谈论此事。
Paxton’s wife, state Senator Angela Paxton, filed for divorce last year on “biblical grounds,” accusing him of adultery. Paxton has declined to discuss the matter publicly.
吉尔·泰特是得克萨斯州共和党妇女联合会的主席，这是一个草根组织，在160个俱乐部中拥有超过1万名成员。她估计，在成员们所接触的保守派女性中，约有40%因帕克斯顿的婚姻问题而对他心存疑虑。
Jill Tate is president of the Texas Federation of Republican Women, a grassroots group with more than 10,000 members in 160 clubs. She estimates about 40% of the conservative women her members are talking to have doubts about Paxton because of his marital problems.
“在我30年里，我从没见过我们得这么费劲才能赢，”泰特在艾伦市拉票时说。艾伦是达拉斯一个立场极为保守的郊区。
“I’ve never seen us have to work quite so hard to win in my 30 years,” Tate said while canvassing in Allen, a deeply conservative suburb of Dallas.
25岁的劳伦·斯图尔特是坦普尔的一名共和党人，她说自己从小受到的宗教教育让她难以克服对帕克斯顿的顾虑。
Lauren Stewart, a 25-year-old Republican in Temple, said her religious upbringing made it hard to overcome her reservations about Paxton.
斯图尔特说：“那场选举我可能就不投票了。”“我很多朋友也这么说过。”得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的民调显示，在可能投票的共和党选民中，71%的男性对帕克斯顿持正面看法，而共和党女性中这一比例仅为59%。
“I might skip voting in that race,” Stewart said. "I’ve heard that from a lot of my friends, too.”Among likely Republican voters, 71% of men view Paxton favorably, compared with just 59% of Republican women, UT polling shows.
在平常年份，这可能无关紧要。但民调显示民主党选民更有投票热情，因此这可能至关重要。亨森说：“在这场选举中，少量选民的增减都很重要。”
That might not matter in a typical year. But with polls showing Democrats more energized, it could be crucial. “This is an election where small increments of voters matter,” Henson said.