身着闪亮格纹衬衫和一条悬挂着“投票”字样的垂坠项链，美国众议员苏西·李正在动员一屋子挨户走访的志愿者，为内华达州堕胎投票议案第6号在拉斯维加斯周边挨户拉票。这位四届民主党籍众议员谈及自己的背景——无家可归者倡导者、非营利组织教育工作者、通过体外受精生育两个成年子女的母亲——以及她的流产病史和治疗流产所需的堕胎护理。
Decked out in a sparkly plaid shirt and a dangly necklace urging “VOTE,” US Rep. Susie Lee was rallying a roomful of canvassers to knock on doors around Las Vegas in support of Nevada’s abortion ballot measure, Question 6 . The four-term Democratic congresswoman talked about her background—homeless advocate, nonprofit educator, mom of two adult children via IVF—as well as her history of miscarriages and the abortion care she needed to treat them.
内华达州有堕胎的法定保护，但也有一位自称“支持生命”的共和党州长。第6号议案将把这些权利写入州宪法。“我不想为此担心，”李告诉听众。“我不想为我的女儿、我的孙辈、全州各地的家庭为此担心。”
Nevada has statutory protections for abortion, but it also has a Republican governor who has described himself as “pro-life.”Question 6 would enshrine those rights in the state’s constitution. “I don’t want to have to worry about it,” Lee told the audience. “I don’t want to have to worry about it for my daughter, for my grandkids, for families all across the state.”
但今年秋天，堕胎并非选民心头的头等大事——无论是在李辽阔的克拉克县选区，还是在她那位将堕胎权描述为“撒旦”的MAGA风格对手马蒂·奥唐奈尔的描述中，甚至也不是在这身穿紫色“我的身体。我的选票。”T恤的房间里。因此，李将大部分时间用于谈论关税、伊朗战争、每箱80美元的汽油、医疗补助计划削减、飙升的医疗保险费、掠夺性住房成本以及学生债务。她还将可负担性与生殖自主权直接联系起来。“这对妇女和家庭来说也是一个经济问题。”
But abortion isn’t the main topic on voters’ minds this fall—not in Lee’s sprawling Clark County district, not as her MAGA-y opponent Marty O’Donnell describes abortion rights as “ satanic ,” and not even in this roomful of purple “My Body. My Ballot.”T-shirts. So Lee devoted much of her time to talking about tariffs, the Iran war, $80-a-tank gas, Medicaid cuts, skyrocketing healthcare premiums, predatory housing costs, and student debt. She also drew a direct connection between affordability and reproductive autonomy. “It’s an economic issue for women and families as well.”
至于生殖权利在今年秋天的选举中如何体现，上述场景概括了2026年的选举。
When it comes to how reproductive rights are paying out on the ballot this fall, that scene is 2026 in a nutshell.
两年前，对罗诉韦德案被推翻的愤怒将堕胎推至全国政治对话的中心。而今年，在由特朗普的经济、战争和腐败主导的选举中，堕胎作为政治议题的重要性似乎已有所下降。然而，民调显示选民对生殖权利的关注程度与以往一样高，而策略人士表示，该议题可能是决定预计民主党浪潮规模的关键因素。
Two years ago, fury over the end of Roe v. Wade put abortion at the center of the national political conversation. This year, in an election dominated by Donald Trump’s economy, war, and corruption, abortion’s importance as a political issue has seemingly receded. Yet polls show voters care about reproductive rights as much as ever—and strategists say the issue could be a key factor in determining the size of the predicted Democratic wave.
中期选举竞选进入最后阶段，越来越多的支持堕胎权候选人——在内华达州和全国各地——开始强调经济论点。“一个家庭将要做出的最具影响力的经济决定，就是是否要孩子，”Mini Timmaraju说，她是“所有人的生殖自由”组织的总裁，该组织一直致力于支持关键摇摆州的选举倡议和民主党候选人。“决定是否要孩子以及如何组建家庭，对你的经济未来至关重要。选民们理解这种微妙之处。”
In the closing days of the midterms campaign, more and more pro-choice candidates—in Nevada and around the country—are leaning into the economic arguments. “The most consequential economic decision a family is going to make is whether to have a child,” says Mini Timmaraju, president of Reproductive Freedom for All, which has been working to support ballot initiatives and Democratic candidates in key battlegrounds. “The ability to decide if and how to have a family is critical to your economic future. Voters understand that nuance.”
与此同时，堕胎权团体正在加强过去两年的主题：需要在国会和各州建立民主党防火墙，因为特朗普政府及其极右翼盟友正在威胁堕胎服务的获取。
At the same time, abortion-rights groups are doubling down on their main theme of the past two years: the need for Democratic firewalls in Congress and the states as the Trump administration and its far-right allies threaten access.
美国民主党众议员苏西·李上个月在拉斯维加斯与支持堕胎权的挨户走访人员交谈。照片由苏西·李竞选国会活动提供在拉斯维加斯的活动上，Timmaraju指出，特朗普政府官员一直在加强对药物堕胎、联邦计划生育、避孕和体外受精的攻击，同时告诉他们的支持者，中期选举后手段将会更加严厉。“为什么要在中期选举后？”她问道。“因为他们知道这些攻击在政治上有多么不受欢迎。”
Democratic US Rep. Susie Lee speaks to pro-choice canvassers in Las Vegas last month. Photo courtesy of Susie Lee for Congress campaign At the Las Vegas event, Timmaraju pointed out that Trump officials have been ratcheting up their attacks on medication abortion, federal family planning, contraception and IVF, while telling their supporters that the gloves will really come off after the midterms. “Why after the midterms?” she asked. “Because they know how deeply politically unpopular these attacks are.”
活动的特别嘉宾斯泰西·艾布拉姆斯关注堕胎禁令的健康影响，包括她家乡佐治亚州的孕产妇死亡。她警告说，如果内华达州没有将宪法保护写入法律，该州“将面临成为那些没有人知道自己有权获得什么、因此也没有人知道未来会怎样的州之一的风险。”
The event’s special guest, Stacey Abrams, focused on the health impacts of abortion bans, including maternal deaths in her home state of Georgia. If Nevada doesn’t enshrine constitutional protections, she warned, it “runs the risk of being in the number of states where no one knows what they’re entitled to, and therefore no one knows what the future holds.”
“选民会说，这是一个决定性因素。‘他们不支持生殖健康护理的自由和获取？我不能支持他们。对我来说，这就结束了。’”那种表述在选民中引起强烈共鸣，民主党民调公司Impact Research总裁莫莉·墨菲说。“在这个周期我做的每一项民调中，[堕胎]都是焦点小组里对共和党的主要负面因素，”她上周在一次新闻发布会上说。
“Voters will say, this is a deal breaker. ‘They don’t support freedom and access to reproductive health care? I can’t support them. It’s over for me.’”That kind of messaging resonates powerfully with voters, says Molly Murphy, president of the Democratic polling firm Impact Research. “In every poll I’ve done this cycle, [abortion] is a top negative against Republicans in focus groups,” she said at a press briefing last week.
“选民会说，这是底线。‘他们不支持生殖健康护理的自由和获取途径？我不能支持他们。对我来说，这事儿就完了。’”堕胎团体指望这些情绪能帮助民主党不仅重新夺得众议院（如果最新民调属实，还包括参议院），而且通过翻转关键立法席位和州长职位——比如内华达州的——来赢得新的州“三连霸”，而这些席位和职位目前由共和党人持有。
“Voters will say, this is a deal breaker. ‘They don’t support freedom and access to reproductive health care? I can’t support them. It’s over for me.’”Abortion groups are counting on those sentiments to help Democrats not just retake the House (and, if the latest polls are correct, the Senate) but also win new state trifectas by flipping key legislative seats and governorships—like Nevada’s—that Republicans now hold.
与此同时，四个州的选票上有与堕胎相关的议题，可能决定数百万女性的获取途径。以下是中期选举中一些最大的生殖权利之战的概况。争夺国会有一段时间，似乎帮助像李这样的支持选择权的民主党人赢得选举并重新夺回众议院多数席位，是生殖权利团体合理能期望的最多了。李在2018年“蓝色浪潮”中首次当选，2024年特朗普赢得她的第三国会选区，而她仅勉强保住了席位，因此被视为处于危险之中。
Meanwhile, four states have abortion-related measures on the ballot that could determine access for millions of women. Here’s a look at some of the biggest reproductive rights battles of the midterms. The Fight for Congress For a while, it seemed as if helping pro-choice Democrats like Lee win their elections and regain the House majority was the most that reproductive rights groups could reasonably hope for. Lee, first elected in the 2018 blue wave, was seen as vulnerable after Trump won her Third Congressional District in 2024 while she narrowly held onto her seat .
但李受益于特朗普支持率的暴跌以及她对手的极端（和不严肃）。奥唐纳——一位获得特朗普背书的百万富翁电子游戏作曲家——拥有狂热的网络追随者（“马蒂军团”，最近因新纳粹和白人民族主义言论被查处），并在堕胎和LGBTQ权利问题上持有极右翼观点。库克政治报告现在将这场竞选评为“可能民主党胜选”。
But Lee has been helped by Trump’s plummeting popularity and by the extremism (and unseriousness) of her opponent. O’Donnell —a millionaire video-games composer endorsed by Trump—has a rabid online following (“The Marty Army,” recently busted for neo-Nazi and white nationalist comments) and far-right views about abortion and LGBTQ rights. Cook Political Report now rates the race as “Likely D.”
鉴于民主党似乎已稳拿众议院，生殖权利团体将重点转向参议院，该院在提名大法官和联邦法官方面的作用使其成为一个特别重要的目标。据一份政策简报显示，反堕胎信息使支持向民主党转移了多达五个百分点，并“显著提高”了无党派选民的积极性。但共和党候选人一直在淡化（或积极删除）其反堕胎记录，而支持选择权的团体未能向选民传达信息。
With the House seemingly locked up for Democrats, reproductive rights groups have intensified their focus on the Senate, whose role in picking Supreme Court justices and federal judges makes it an especially important prize. According to one policy brief, anti-abortion messaging moved support toward Democrats by as much as five points and “significantly increased” motivation among independents. But Republican candidates have been playing down (or actively scrubbing ) their anti-abortion records, and pro-choice groups weren’t getting through to voters.
民调公司Impact Research在7月的一份报告中警告称，生殖权利方面存在“需要克服的可信度差距”。“大多数摇摆州选民没有听到关于堕胎问题的信息，因此，虽然许多人对限制堕胎获取的共和党政策表示担忧，但他们也认为这些政策不太可能发生。”
The repro-rights side has “a believability gap to overcome,” the polling firm Impact Research warned in a July report . “Most battleground voters are not hearing about the issue of abortion, so while many express concerns about Republican policies that restrict access to abortion, they also believe these policies are unlikely to happen.”
对于生殖权利团体来说，竞选周期的最后几周一直致力于填补这一信息空白。Reproductive Freedom for All已向其中期选举活动投入了2350万美元，其中包括对密歇根州、爱荷华州和缅因州关键参议院竞选的支持。与计划生育协会有关联的政治行动委员会Planned Parenthood Votes宣布投资4700万美元，目标包括缅因州的苏珊·柯林斯和密歇根州的迈克·罗杰斯。
For repro groups, the final weeks of the cycle have been all about filling that information hole. Reproductive Freedom for All has poured $23.5 million into its midterm campaign, which includes support for key Senate races in Michigan, Iowa, and Maine. Planned Parenthood Votes, a PAC affiliated with Planned Parenthood, announced a $47 million investment with targets including Maine’s Susan Collins and Michigan’s Mike Rogers.
蒂马拉朱认为，生殖权利已成为一个有力的竞选收尾论点：“[它是]决定性问题，真正有助于让选民明白，共和党过于极端，无法代表普通选民。”争夺州“三合一”控制权在2024年，民主党幻想赢得的“三合一”是国会和白宫。今年，他们将目光投向了各州。
Timmaraju argues that repro rights has become a compelling closing argument: “[It’s] the tipping-point issue, the thing that really helps make it plain that Republicans are too extreme to represent average voters.”The Fight for State Trifectas In 2024, the trifecta that Democrats fantasized about winning was in Congress and the White House. This year, they have their eyes set on the states.
States Win 执行董事莎拉·库尔米表示，完全控制州政府已被证明是抵御特朗普和共和党的最佳防御之一。该组织支持参选州议会的民主党人。“三权合一对于保护堕胎权和一般生殖权利至关重要。”
Gaining complete control of state governments has proven to be one of the best defenses against Trump and the GOP, says Sarah Curmi , executive director of States Win , which supports Democrats running for state legislatures. “Trifectas are critical to protecting abortion rights and reproductive rights generally.”
库尔米表示，民主党只需净翻转22个立法席位，就能完全控制宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州、亚利桑那州、明尼苏达州和威斯康星州的州政府。赢得州长选举将使内华达州和佛蒙特州实现三权合一。
Democrats could gain full control over state governments in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Minnesota, and Wisconsin by flipping a net total of just 22 legislative seats, Curmi says. Winning gubernatorial races would lead to trifectas in Nevada and Vermont .
“处于民主党控制之下……对我们这些生活在那些州的人来说，影响将非常巨大，”来自密歇根州的库尔米说。“不仅仅是堕胎服务……还有投票权、重新划区、环境保护、LGBTQ+平等——我们可以列举一整天，说州议会影响我们生活的各种不同方式。”
“Being under Democratic control … would have a huge impact for those of us living in those states,” says Curmi, who hails from Michigan. “Not just for abortion access… but also voting rights, redistricting, environmental protections, LGBTQ+ equality—we could be here all day listing all the different ways that state legislatures impact our lives.”
在宾夕法尼亚州，民主党希望受欢迎的州长乔什·夏皮罗以足够大的优势连任，以帮助他们夺取州参议院的控制权，该议会自1994年以来一直由共和党控制。如果他们只赢得两个席位，民主党就能提高最低工资、增加大众交通资金、废除数十年的反堕胎法律，并将堕胎和LGBTQ保护法典化。虽然民主党在州众议院拥有微弱多数，但“参议院是我们的法案遭到否决的地方，”计划生育协会宾夕法尼亚州倡导者组织执行董事西涅·埃斯皮诺萨说。
In Pennsylvania , Democrats are hoping that popular Gov. Josh Shapiro wins reelection by a big enough margin to help them take the state Senate, which Republicans have controlled since 1994. If they gained just two seats, Democrats could raise the minimum wage, increase funding for mass transit, repeal decades-old anti-abortion laws, and codify abortion and LGBTQ protections. While Democrats have a narrow majority in the state House, “the Senate is where our bills have gone to die,” says Signe Espinoza, executive director at Planned Parenthood Pennsylvania Advocates.
“如果我们能改变州议会的情况，我们不仅会处于防守状态，还会真正考虑宾夕法尼亚州妇女和家庭的需求，推动真正能支持我们的立法。”
“If we can change things in the General Assembly, we won’t just be playing defense, but really thinking about the needs of Pennsylvania women and families and moving forward legislation that can really support us.”
在内华达州，阻止民主党实现“三连胜”的，是寻求连任的现任共和党州长乔·隆巴多。隆巴多以温和派著称，他本人反对堕胎，但承诺不会将自己的观点强加于该州。尽管他签署了民主党控制的州议会通过的一些支持选择权的立法，但他否决了关于体外受精和带薪家庭假的法案，并上个月告诉《里诺公报杂志》，他将投票反对第6号提案，称现行法定保护措施“足够”。
In Nevada, it’s popular incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo , running for a second term, who is standing in the way of a Democratic trifecta. Lombardo has a reputation as a moderate who, while personally opposed to abortion, has pledged not to impose his views on the state. Although he has signed some pro-choice legislation passed by the Democratic-controlled legislature, he has vetoed bills on IVF and paid family leave and told the Reno Gazette Journal last month that he would vote against Question 6, saying the current statutory protections are “sufficient.”
他原本被看好能击败民主党对手、总检察长亚伦·福特，但进入最后冲刺阶段，民调显示两人势均力敌，而提前投票则强劲倾向于民主党。关于投票提案的争夺两年前，有10个州提出了旨在确立生殖权利的提案。今年11月，内华达州是仅有的三个提出此类提案的州之一——密苏里州的第四个提案则试图废除堕胎保护。
He had been favored to beat his Democratic rival, Attorney General Aaron Ford, but heading into the final stretch, polls shows the race is tied , while early voting has trended strongly toward Dems. The Fights Over Ballot Measures Two years ago, 10 states had measures aimed at enshrining reproductive rights. This November, Nevada is one of only three states that do—and a fourth measure, in Missouri, is trying to repeal abortion protections.
围绕投票倡议的氛围也不同了。两年前，民主党和堕胎权利团体希望这些提案能推动愤怒的女性——包括共和党女性——前去投票，并将副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯送入白宫。而这一次，目标更具州特色，预期也更为低调。弗吉尼亚州和德克萨斯州经济学家的一项新分析有助于解释原因：尽管2024年在堕胎提案上的支出超过2.5亿美元，但这些提案实际上可能帮助了共和党，因为它们让温和的共和党女性在不放弃本党或其反堕胎候选人的情况下，就生殖权利问题发泄情绪。
The vibe around ballot initiatives is also different. Two years ago, Democrats and abortion rights groups hoped the measures would drive angry women—including Republicans—to the polls and sweep Vice President Kamala Harris into the White House. This time around, the goals are more state-specific and expectations more muted. A new analysis by economists in Virginia and Texas helps explain why: Despite more than $250 million in spending in 2024, abortion measures may actually have helped Republicans by giving moderate GOP women a way to blow off steam on reproductive rights without abandoning their party or its anti-abortion candidates.
内华达州是这一过程的完美例证。第6号提案——保障胎儿存活能力前或为保护孕妇健康或生命的堕胎权——必须在两次连续选举中获得选民批准。该提案首次于2024年出现在选票上，以64%的得票率获胜。但特朗普赢得了该州。亚利桑那州、密苏里州和蒙大拿州也出现了类似情况——这些州都通过了堕胎相关提案，同时以从稳健到压倒性不等的优势连任特朗普。
Nevada is a perfect example of how this played out. Question 6 — which guarantees abortion rights until fetal viability or to protect the health or life of the mother—must be approved by voters in two consecutive elections. It was on the ballot for the first time in 2024, winning 64 percent of the vote. But Trump took the state. Something similar happened in Arizona, Missouri, and Montana—all passed abortion measures while reelecting Trump by margins ranging from comfortable to landslide.
蒂玛拉朱表示，特朗普在竞选中处理堕胎问题的方式——坚称多布斯裁决将监管权交由各州，并淡化若其当选可能出现全国性禁令的可能性——“几乎就像给共和党人提供了许可结构，让他们既可以投票支持选举提案，又可以投票支持他”。
Trump’s handling of the abortion issue in his campaign—insisting that the Dobbs decision left regulation up to the states and minimizing the possibility of a national ban if he were elected—“was almost like a permission structure for Republicans to go vote for a ballot measure and then vote for him,” Timmaraju says.
2024年另一个得之不易的教训是：“仅靠赢得选举提案是不够的，”蒂玛拉朱说。“如果你没有宪法官员，也没有州议会，你就陷入僵局。”
Another hard-earned lesson of 2024: “It’s not enough to win ballot measures,” Timmaraju says. “If you don’t have the constitutional officers and you don’t have the legislature, you’re stuck.”
“仅靠赢得选举提案是不够的。如果你没有宪法官员，也没有州议会，你就陷入僵局。”
“It’s not enough to win ballot measures. If you don’t have the constitutional officers and you don’t have the legislature, you’re stuck.”
密苏里州是一个警示性的故事。两年前，它成为第一个推翻近乎全面堕胎禁令的州，以近52%的选票通过了《生殖自由权利倡议》。但正如我的同事索菲·赫维茨报道的那样，反堕胎立法者没有努力实施该修正案，而是在每一个机会上进行抵制，包括在今年的选票上推出自己的提案，旨在通过妖魔化跨性别儿童来推翻2024年的提案。“2024年选举周期的结果告诉我们，我们不能孤立地为堕胎权而战，”全国堕胎联合会主席兼首席执行官布里塔尼·芬特诺说。
Missouri is a cautionary tale. Two years ago, it became the first state to overturn a near-total abortion ban, passing its Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative with almost 52 percent of the vote. But as my colleague Sophie Hurwitz has reported , instead of working to implement the amendment, anti-abortion lawmakers pushed back at every opportunity, including putting their own measure on this year’s ballot that aims to overturn the 2024 measure by demonizing transgender kids. “The results of the 2024 election cycle taught us that we cannot fight for abortion access in a silo,” says Brittany Fonteno, president and CEO of the National Abortion Federation.
这一认识是进步团体致力于争取州“三权合一”控制权的原因之一。密歇根州和亚利桑那州都已将堕胎权写入州宪法，但如果没有民主党控制这些州议会，“我们就无法完成这项工作，”蒂玛拉朱说。弗吉尼亚州则是一个有力的反例：它是南部唯一一个自多布斯案判决以来尚未实施任何形式堕胎禁令的州，这要归功于能够挫败时任州长格伦·扬金（反堕胎的共和党人）的民主党立法者。
That realization is one reason progressive groups are putting so much effort into state trifectas. Michigan and Arizona have both enshrined abortion rights into their constitutions, but without Democratic control of those legislatures, “we haven’t been able to finish the job,” Timmaraju says. Virginia offers a powerful counter-example: It it the only state in the South that hasn’t enacted some sort of abortion ban since Dobbs , thanks to Democratic lawmakers who were able to thwart then-Gov. Glenn Youngkin, an anti-abortion Republican.
现在，在2025年赢得州长职位和“三权合一”控制权后，弗吉尼亚州民主党将三项进步宪法修正案提交到今年的选票中：一项保障妊娠第二孕期内的生殖自由和堕胎权，一项废除20年前禁止同性婚姻的禁令，一项加强有重罪定罪人员的投票权。
Now, after winning the governorship and a trifecta in 2025, Virginia Democrats have a trio of progressive constitutional amendments on this year’s ballot: one guaranteeing reproductive freedom and abortion rights through the second trimester of pregnancy, one repealing a 20-year-old ban on same-sex marriage , and one bolstering voting rights for people with felony convictions.
“我们只是想提醒人们，我们可能会变成像北卡罗来纳州、南卡罗来纳州以及南部其他州那样，”弗吉尼亚州计划生育协会倡导者组织执行主任杰米·洛克哈特说。将堕胎和其他保障措施写入宪法意味着“我们不必担心会变成一个倒退的州。”三项措施预计都将通过。
“We are just trying to remind people that we could be like North Carolina, South Carolina, other states across the South,” says Jamie Lockhart, executive director of Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia. Enshrining abortion and other protections means “we don’t have to worry about turning into a state that backslides.”All three measures are expected to pass.
由于现实情况，生殖权利倡导者在深红州爱达荷州保持期望克制，那里的堕胎支持者正试图通过第1号提案，该提案将在州法律下创设生殖自由和隐私权。目前，爱达荷州拥有美国最严苛的堕胎法律之一。虽然胜利将向该州压倒性反堕胎的立法者发出强烈信号，但由于该提案不会修改州宪法，那些共和党人仍可能投票恢复禁令。一项新的民调显示，该提案正在失利。
Because of the on-the-ground realities, repro advocates are keeping their expectations in check in deep-red Idaho, where abortion supporters are trying to pass Proposition 1 , which would create a right to reproductive freedom and privacy under state law. Today, Idaho has some of the most draconian abortion laws in the country. While a win would send a potent signal to the state’s overwhelmingly anti-abortion lawmakers, because the measure wouldn’t amend the state constitution, those same Republicans could vote to reinstate the ban. A new poll shows the measure is losing.
在内华达州，预计第6号议题将轻松获胜，但对许多选民而言，这感觉像是一次倒退。在拉斯维加斯的活动上，内华达州“全民生殖自由”运动的负责人丹妮丝·洛佩兹直面这一问题。她说：“有些选民在问，‘我们不是已经通过了吗？’答案是肯定的，”她说，“我们必须第二次通过，以确保这些权利在宪法中永久化。”
In Nevada, meanwhile, Question 6 is expected to easily win, but to a lot of voters, it feels like a throwback. At the Las Vegas event, Denise Lopez, director of Nevada campaigns for Reproductive Freedom for All, addressed the problem head on. “Some voters are asking, didn’t we already pass this?”And the answer is yes,” she said. “We have to do it a second time to ensure that these rights are permanent in our constitution.”