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中期选举候选人打算如何对抗通胀?经济学家评估各项提案How do midterm candidates plan to fight inflation? Economists evaluate proposals

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斯蒂芬妮·斯卡伯勒/美联社Stephanie Scarbrough/AP

提案包括减税和结束伊朗战争。作者:马克斯·扎恩 随着周二的中期选举进入最后冲刺阶段,关于候选人投放攻击性广告以及现任和前任白宫主人互相攻击的新闻铺天盖地。

Proposals include tax cuts and an end to the Iran war. By Max Zahn The final sprint to Tuesday's midterm elections has kicked up a flurry of headlines about attack ads slung by candidates and verbal jabs thrown by current and former occupants of the White House.

然而,一个关乎家庭银行账户余额的关键问题,却在整个竞选季始终占据着选民的心头:负担能力。

An issue crucial to households' bank account balances, however, has preoccupied voters for the duration of campaign season: Affordability.

美国政府数据显示,伊朗战争引发了中东地区动荡,推高燃油价格,进而触发了长达数月的通胀飙升。作为对物价上涨的回应,债券收益率跃升推高了信用卡、抵押贷款等贷款利率,威胁加剧财务紧缩。

The Iran war set off a monthslong surge of inflation as fuel prices climbed in response to unrest in the Middle East, U.S. government data shows. In response to rising prices, a jump in bond yields has pushed up rates for loans like credit cards and mortgages, threatening to worsen the financial crunch.

国会候选人提出了一系列旨在解决物价困境的提案,包括减税、放松监管、取消关税和结束伊朗战争。

Candidates for Congress have voiced a range of proposals meant to address the price woes, including tax cuts, an easing of regulations, a removal of tariffs and an end to the Iran war.

一些经济学家接受美国广播公司(ABC News)采访,谈论这些提案能否降温通胀。分析人士称赞了一些政策,批评了另一些,但他们都承认,没有任何单一措施能在短期内显著扭转物价局面。以下是专家眼中的竞选路上部分负担能力提案要点:结束伊朗战争 伊朗战争在今年早些时候引发通胀上升,历史性的石油供应短缺推高了汽油、食品杂货和其他必需品价格。

Some economists spoke to ABC News about whether the proposals could cool off inflation. Analysts praised some policies and criticized others, but they all acknowledged that no single measure could dramatically shift the price picture, at least anytime soon. Here's what to know about some affordability proposals made on the campaign trail, according to experts: End the war in Iran The Iran war triggered a rise of inflation earlier this year as a historic oil supply shortage pushed up prices for gasoline, groceries and other essentials.

2026年10月13日,伊朗班达尔阿巴斯海滩附近的霍尔木兹海峡,有船只航行。拉齐娅·普达特/西亚新闻社经路透社供图Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, October 13, 2026. Razieh Poudat/West Asia News Agency via Reuters

一些候选人(主要是民主党人)提出结束伊朗战争,以此抑制涨价。

Some candidates, mostly Democrats, have proposed an end to the Iran war as a means of dialing back price hikes.

“我们被承诺不会发动新的对外战争,但现在我们已身陷一场新的对外战争185天,内布拉斯加人正在为此买单,”内布拉斯加州联邦参议员独立候选人丹·奥斯本在9月的一场辩论中表示。

"We were promised no new foreign wars, but here we are, 185 days into a new foreign war and Nebraskans are paying the price," Dan Osborn, an independent candidate for U.S. Senate in Nebraska, said at a debate in September.

在其竞选网站上,奥斯本呼吁“结束那些推高物价和成本、夺走美国军人生命的战争”,并特别点名了伊朗战争。

On his campaign website, Osborn calls for "ending the wars that drive up prices and costs the lives of American servicemen and women," pointing specifically to the Iran war.

上个月,当被问及将如何降低物价时,面临连任竞选的参议员乔恩·奥索夫(民主党-佐治亚州)誓言要“结束这场在伊朗的灾难性战争”。接受美国广播公司新闻网采访的分析人士将汽油和其他一些商品的高价归因于中东地区持续的冲突,该冲突破坏了石油基础设施,并迫使企业采取成本高昂的原油运输方式。

When asked last month how he would bring down prices, Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., who is up for re-election, vowed to "end this disastrous war in Iran." Analysts who spoke to ABC News attributed elevated prices for gasoline and some other goods to ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has damaged oil infrastructure and forced firms to take up costly means of transporting crude.

美国劳工统计局:特朗普总统第二任期内的通货膨胀Inflation in President Trump's Second Term U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

根据美国汽车协会(AAA)的数据,全国汽油平均价格为每加仑4.16美元,比2月伊朗战争爆发之初上涨了1.18美元。美国政府数据显示,9月汽油价格较8月跳涨逾9%,占当月整体物价涨幅的一半以上,这是有记录的最近一个月。

The national average price of a gallon of gas stands at $4.16 a gallon, which marks an increase of $1.18 since the outset of the Iran war in February, according to AAA data. Gas prices jumped more than 9% in September from August, accounting for more than half of the overall price increase that month, the most recent month on record, U.S. government data showed.

布鲁金斯学会哈钦斯财政与货币政策中心经济研究高级研究员吉安·马里亚·米莱西-费雷蒂对美国广播公司新闻网表示:“这场战争与油价以及当然成品油价格的变化有很大关系。结束战争将至关重要。”唐纳德·特朗普总统承认油价上涨,但坚持认为,为防止伊朗获得核武器,这场战争是值得的。他还预测,冲突结束后燃油价格将迅速下跌。

"The war has a lot to do with what has happened to oil prices and of course to the refined product prices," Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institute's Hutchins Center for Fiscal and Monetary Policy, told ABC News. "Ending the war would be salient." President Donald Trump has acknowledged the rise in oil prices while maintaining that the war has been worth it to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. He has also predicted that fuel prices will fall quickly when the conflict ends.

特朗普9月在联合国大会上表示:“战争结束后,油价将暴跌,甚至低于冲突开始时的水平。”

After the war, "oil prices will come plummeting down even lower than they were at the start of the conflict," Trump said in September at the United Nations General Assembly.

一些分析人士表示,如果中东达成和平协议,假设这能让所有战斗停止,随着供应挑战缓解,油价可能会下跌,但价格回落可能需要时间,因为生产商需要修复该地区的石油基础设施。

In the event of a peace deal in the Middle East, assuming it brought all fighting to a halt, oil prices would likely fall as supply challenges eased, but the reduction in price could take time as producers repair oil infrastructure in the region, some analysts said.

他们补充道,与此同时,汽油价格可能会以滞后的速度下跌,因为零售商需要销售掉在油价高位时购买的成品油。

Gas prices, meanwhile, would likely fall at a delayed pace as retailers sell through refined product purchased while oil prices were at higher levels, they added.

“即使我们今天结束伊朗战争,我认为能源价格下降还需要一段时间,”美国大学经济学家卡拉·雷诺兹对美国广播公司新闻部(ABC News)表示。“我们低估了该地区生产能力被摧毁的程度。”

"Even if we ended the Iran war today, I think it's going to take a while for those energy prices to come down," Kara Reynolds, an economist at American University, told ABC News. "We're underestimating how much of the capacity of production has been destroyed in that area."

2025年7月4日,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在白宫南草坪签署H.R.1“一个宏伟美丽的法案”。汤姆·布伦纳/《华盛顿邮报》经盖蒂图片社供图President Donald Trump signs H.R. 1: "One Big Beautiful Bill" from the South Lawn of the White House, July 4, 2025. Tom Brenner For The Washington Post via Getty Images

减税 特朗普总统的标志性法案“一个宏伟美好的法案”(One Big Beautiful Bill)包含一系列针对个人和企业的减税措施,在竞选途中赢得了共和党候选人的赞誉。他们中的许多人宣扬减税是让民众留住更多钱、缓解负担能力困境的手段。

Tax cuts President Trump's signature One Big Beautiful Bill, which included a range of tax reductions for both individuals and businesses, has drawn praise from Republican candidates on the trail. Many of them have touted tax cuts as a means of keeping money in people's pockets and relieving affordability woes.

爱荷华州联邦参议员共和党候选人阿什利·希森呼吁实施此类减税。

Ashley Hinson, a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in Iowa, has called for such tax relief.

希森的竞选网站称:“阿什利始终认为这是您的钱,而不是政府的钱。她一直全力致力于为劳动家庭减税,并赋予所有爱荷华州人机会。” 正在竞选连任的内布拉斯加州联邦参议员皮特·里基茨(共和党)也在其竞选网站上提到这一做法。网站称:“皮特·里基茨正在帮助内布拉斯加州的家庭、工人、老年人和小企业主留住更多辛苦赚来的收入。”

Hinson's campaign website says: "Ashley has always believed it is YOUR money, not the government's money. She has been laser focused on lowering taxes for working families and empowering all Iowans with opportunities." Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Neb., who is running for re-election, also mentions this approach on his campaign website. "Pete Ricketts is helping Nebraska families, workers, seniors, and small business owners keep more of their hard-earned income," the website says.

接受美国广播公司新闻部采访的经济学家将减税描述为一种通过让部分个人收入免于纳税来缓解负担能力困境的潜在途径。

Economists who spoke to ABC News described tax cuts as a potential way to ease affordability woes by sheltering some of an individual's income from taxes.

与此同时,他们表示,由此带来的消费支出增加若导致需求增幅超过商品供给,将有加剧通胀的风险。他们表示,如果更多的货币追逐数量相近的商品,物价可能会上涨。

At the same time, they said, a resulting uptick in consumer spending would risk heightened inflation in the event the increase in demand were to outpace the supply of goods. If a larger amount of money were to chase after a similar amount of goods, they said, prices may rise.

“总体而言,减税可以给你带来收入,用以抵消更高的物价,”雷诺兹说。“问题在于,当你降低税收时,这可能被视为一种财政刺激。如果这助长了更多的消费者支出,就会加剧通胀。”分析师表示,减税还会减少联邦政府的税收收入,如果没有同等幅度的开支削减,这可能会增加国家高达40.5万亿美元的债务。债务进一步增加可能会推高政府债务的利率,因为借贷方会因违约风险增加而要求更高的收益率。

"In general, tax relief can give you income you can use to compensate for higher prices," Reynolds said. "The problem is when you lower taxes that can be seen as a fiscal stimulus. To the extent that's fueling more consumer spending it exacerbates inflation." Tax cuts also reduce revenue taken in by the federal government, which could add to the nation's $40.5 trillion debt in the absence of an equivalent reduction in spending, analysts said. A further increase in debt could hike interest rates for government debt as borrowers seek higher yields in return for increased risk of default.

国债收益率潜在的上升,反过来可能会推高消费者的借贷成本,使得申请抵押贷款或偿还信用卡债务变得更加昂贵。

A potential rise in Treasury rates, in turn, could hike borrowing costs for consumers, making it more expensive to take out a mortgage or pay off a credit card.

“公共债务已经在上升,为其融资的成本也在上升,”米莱西-费雷蒂说。

"Public debt is already rising and the cost of financing it is going up," Milesi-Ferretti said.

放宽监管、改善供给 共和党和民主党候选人均提出通过减轻监管来实现更高的效率,尤其是在住房领域。他们表示,生产率的提高将产生额外供给,从而导致价格下降。

Ease regulations and improve supply Both Republican and Democratic candidates have proposed relief from regulations as a means of achieving greater efficiency, especially in the area of housing. Improved productivity, they say, would generate added supply, leading to lower prices.

2026年8月12日,加利福尼亚州圣布鲁诺,托尔兄弟公司克雷斯特莫尔庄园住宅开发项目中的一栋在建住宅。大卫·保罗·莫里斯/彭博社经盖蒂图片社供图A home under construction at the Toll Brothers Crestmoor Estates housing development in San Bruno, Calif., Aug. 12, 2026. David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

纽约州州长凯西·霍楚尔(民主党人)呼吁加快许可流程、简化环境审查,作为“建设,宝贝,建设!”计划的一部分。国会两党议员以压倒性多数投票通过了《21世纪通往住房之路法案》(21st Century ROAD to Housing Act),该法案旨在通过取消监管、增强供给来降低房价。该措施于7月正式成为法律。

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, has called for speeding up the permit process and easing environmental reviews as part of a plan to "Build, baby, build!" Members of both parties in Congress voted overwhelmingly to pass the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which aims to reduce home prices by removing regulation and bolstering the supply. The measure became law in July.

共和党籍内布拉斯加州众议员迈克·弗劳德是该法案的共同发起人之一,他在竞选网站上为该法案的思路背书。网站称:“我的法案削减繁文缛节,让新建住房更负担得起”,将这一努力呈现为“让美国梦触手可及”。接受美国广播公司(ABC News)采访的分析人士表示,此类方案有望降低房价,但鉴于住房建设从开工到完工周期漫长,取得进展可能需要数年时间。

Rep. Mike Flood, R-Neb., a co-author of the measure, advocates for its approach on his campaign website. "My bill cuts red tape and makes it more affordable to build new homes," the website says, presenting the effort as a means of "making the American dream affordable." Analysts who spoke to ABC News said solutions of this type could succeed in reducing home prices, though progress would likely take a matter of years due to the prolonged start-to-finish duration of housing construction.

“我喜欢供给侧的思路,”乔治城大学公共政策教授、前美国劳工部首席经济学家哈里·霍尔泽说,“我们让在美国建房变得荒谬地昂贵。”布鲁金斯学会的米莱西-费雷蒂表示,更多的住房供应最终可能缓解价格——但短期内不会见效。

"I like the supply-side ideas," said Harry Holzer, a professor of public policy at Georgetown University and a former chief economist at the U.S. Department of Labor. "We've made it ridiculously expensive to build in America." Milesi-Ferretti, of the Brookings Institute, said a larger supply of homes could eventually ease prices -- but not anytime soon.

“如果你想为增加供给辩护,那是可以辩护的。但你必须基于对时间跨度的现实假设来辩护,”米莱西-费雷蒂说。

"If you want to make a case for boosting supply, that's a case to make. But it's a case you have to make with a realistic assumption of the time horizon," Milesi-Ferretti said.

美国大学的雷诺兹质疑联邦层面举措的潜在影响,她表示,对新建住房审批往往起关键作用的分区法规通常属于州或地方管辖。

Reynolds, of American University, questioned the potential impact of steps taken at the federal level, since she said zoning regulation often critical to the approval of new home construction typically falls under state or local jurisdiction.

“我认为分区法修改对住房供应的影响,将远大于联邦政府能做的任何事情,”雷诺兹说。

"I think zoning law changes will have a much bigger impact on housing supply than anything the federal government can do," Reynolds said.

取消关税 在竞选途中,民主党候选人批评白宫征收的关税是导致物价上涨的原因。许多民主党人——以及一些共和党人——呼吁降低部分关税。

Removal of tariffs On the campaign trail, Democratic candidates have criticized tariffs issued by the White House as a cause of price increases. Many Democrats -- and some Republicans -- have called for a reduction of some levies.

2025年9月6日,一辆卡车驶入美国,行驶在连接安大略省温莎和密歇根州底特律的戈迪·豪国际大桥上。杰夫·科瓦尔斯基/法新社经盖蒂图片社供图A truck crosses into the United States on the Gordie Howe International Bridge, connecting Windsor, Ontario, and Detroit, Michigan, Sept. 6, 2025. Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

据耶鲁预算实验室8月发布的估算,目前的美国关税水平将使典型美国家庭每年多支出1077美元。

In all, the current level of U.S. tariffs will cost the typical American household $1,077 per year, according to an estimate released by the Yale Budget Lab in August.

夏季对加拿大征收的关税已引起北部边境附近州的候选人密切关注。这些州中许多正进行竞争激烈的参议院选举,可能决定哪个政党继续掌控上议院。

Levies imposed on Canada over the summer have drawn close attention from candidates in states near the Northern border. Many of those states play host to closely contested Senate races that may determine which party retains control of the upper chamber.

“特朗普的关税伤害了美国制造商、美国工人以及我们的钱包,”密歇根州美国参议院民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德上周在 X 上的帖子中说。

"Trump's tariffs have hurt American manufacturers, American workers, and our wallets," Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Michigan, said in a post on X last week.

在上周发布的竞选材料中,密歇根州共和党参议院候选人迈克·罗杰斯呼吁结束与加拿大的“关税战争”。

In a campaign released last week, Michigan Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers urged an end to the "tariff war" with Canada.

分析人士表示,关税已推高部分消费品价格,称关税提高了进口商的成本,进口商往往将增加的费用转嫁给购物者。乔治城大学的霍尔泽说:“关税增加了价格压力。”

Analysts said tariffs had pushed up some consumer prices, saying levies had raised costs for importers, who often pass along added expenses to shoppers. "Tariffs add to price pressure," said Holzer, of Georgetown University.

不过,分析人士指出,由于对特定关税的确切价格影响尚不明朗,以及零售商在提价后是否愿意降价存在不确定性,难以预测降低关税后的结果。

Still, the analysts said, it is difficult to anticipate the outcome of a reduction in levies, due in part to ambiguity about the exact price effects of a given tariff and uncertainty surrounding the willingness of retailers to ease prices once they've raised them.

迈尔斯-费雷蒂说:“降低关税后能看到多少节省,取决于最初征收关税时的情况。”

"How much savings you'll see once you reduce the tariffs depends on what happened in the first place when tariffs were imposed," Milesi-Ferretti said.

特朗普政府将关税宣传为迫使外国公司在美国建厂并雇佣美国工人的手段。

白宫上月发布的备忘录称:“通过对非对称的外国贸易行为征收关税,特朗普总统正在激励企业将工作岗位和生产线重新迁回美国本土。”

The Trump administration has touted levies as a means of pressuring foreign companies to build facilities in the U.S. and employ American workers.< "By imposing tariffs to address non-reciprocal foreign trade practices, President Trump is incentivizing companies to reshore jobs and production lines back to American soil," the White House said in a memo issued last month.

在某些情况下,生产商通过削减进口商支付的批发价来承担部分关税成本。与此同时,部分零售商选择自行吸收部分额外税费,而不是以更高价格转嫁给消费者,迈尔斯-费雷蒂补充道。

In some cases, producers slashed wholesale prices paid by importers in an effort to take on some of the cost associated with a tariff. Some retailers, meanwhile, chose to swallow some of the additional tax rather than pass it to shoppers in the form of higher prices, Milesi-Ferretti added.

米莱西-费雷蒂说:“消费者会得到一些好处,但整个体系需要一段时间才能传导到位。”雷诺兹对购物者能否获得大幅节省表示怀疑。

"There will be some benefit for consumers but it will take some time to work through the system," Milesi-Ferretti said. Reynolds voiced skepticism about substantial savings for shoppers.

雷诺兹说:“事实是,一旦企业提高了价格,它们就没有动力再降价。”

"The fact is once firms have increased prices there's no incentive for them to lower the prices," Reynolds said.

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