非党派政治分析机构库克政治报告已将2026年密歇根州参议院选举的评级调整为倾向民主党。
The nonpartisan political handicapper Cook Political Report has shifted its rating of the 2026 Michigan Senate race to lean Democratic.
库克政治报告周一在社交平台X上发帖称，正在“发布2026年中期选举周期的最终参议院评级”，并表示“密歇根州参议院选举从势均力敌调整为倾向民主党”。众议员海莉·史蒂文斯（民主党-密歇根州）周日在前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯（密歇根州）与阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德的初选对决中，临阵倒戈支持罗杰斯，而埃尔-赛义德此前在初选中击败了史蒂文斯。这一变故震动了民主党阵营，但也为埃尔-赛义德的竞选筹集了120万美元。
In a post on the social platform X Monday, the Cook Political Report said it was “issuing its final Senate ratings of the 2026 midterm cycle” and that “the Michigan Senate race moves from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.”Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) made a last-minute endorsement for former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers (Mich.) on Sunday in his race against Abdul El-Sayed, who defeated Stevens in the primary. The shake-up rattled Democrats but also pulled in $1.2 million for El-Sayed’s campaign.
密歇根州是关键摇摆州，特朗普总统两年前和2016年均在此获胜，而前总统拜登在2020年赢得了该州。然而，今年中期选举的选举环境给共和党带来挑战，特朗普下滑的支持率、不得人心的伊朗战争以及对生活成本的担忧正拖累共和党。
Michigan is a key swing state that President Trump won two years ago and in 2016, while former President Biden won it in 2020. However, the electoral environment in this year’s midterms has challenged Republicans, with issues like Trump’s sagging approval rating, the unpopular war in Iran and concerns about the cost of living weighing the GOP down.
同一选举环境或许也助了埃尔-赛义德一臂之力，《纽约时报》/锡耶纳大学最近的一项民调显示，埃尔-赛义德领先罗杰斯11个百分点。
That same electoral environment may also have given El-Sayed a boost, with a recent poll from The New York Times/Sienna University poll finding him ahead of Rogers by 11 points.
决策台总部（Decision Desk HQ）将密歇根州参议院选举评为倾向民主党，给予埃尔-赛义德75%的概率进入参议院。
Decision Desk HQ rates the Michigan Senate race as likely Democratic, giving El-Sayed a 75 percent probability of earning a spot in the upper chamber.
库克政治报告的杰西卡·泰勒在周一的分析中写道，该分析机构“根据新的公开和私下民调做出最终评级调整，包括周末《纽约时报》/锡耶纳民调显示埃尔-赛义德领先11个百分点”。“双方操盘手都不认为这场竞选会演变成两位数的大胜，但《纽约时报》调查值得注意的是还显示，埃尔-赛义德巩固了他在黑人选民中的支持，这原本可能是他的致命弱点，”她补充道。
In a Monday analysis, the Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor wrote that the handicapper was “basing our final ratings change on new public and private polling, including a New York Times/Siena poll over the weekend that put the race at an 11-point spread for El-Sayed.”“Operatives on both sides don’t expect the race to be a double-digit blowout, but the Times survey notably also showed that El-Sayed has shored up his weakness with Black voters, which could have otherwise been his undoing,” she added.