艾伦·利希特曼揭示了他对中期选举结果的看法。总统预测专家艾伦·利希特曼公布了他对即将到来的中期选举的最终预测。
Allan Lichtman has revealed what he thinks will happen with the midterm elections. Presidential guru Allan Lichtman has revealed his final prediction on the upcoming midterm election.
随着总统唐纳德·特朗普和共和党的支持率跌至历史低点，自1984年以来除一次总统选举外全部预测正确的利希特曼给出了他的判断。
With President Donald Trump and the GOP’s approval rating at historic lows, Lichtman, who correctly predicted all but one presidential election since 1984, has given his verdict.
“当一位总统的支持率像特朗普这样低时，白宫所属政党平均会失去40个众议院席位和6个参议院席位，”他告诉《泰晤士报》。“这不是预测；这只是说明风向对共和党人有多么不利。”
“When the approval rating for a president is as low as Trump’s, on average the White House party loses 40 House and six Senate seats,” he told The Times of London. “It’s not a prediction; that’s just showing how heavily the winds are blowing against Republicans.
“我关注的另一点不只是候选人之间的民调，而是通用国会民调，而这一民调非常明显地偏向民主党，领先七到十一个百分点。这相当具有预测性，比单个选区的民调更准，”他解释道。
“The other thing I look at is not just the horse-race polls, but the generic congressional poll, and that’s very heavily favouring Democrats, by seven to 11 points. That’s pretty predictive, more so than the individual race polls,” he explained.
他解释说，本选举周期民主党的“热情”远高于共和党人，这只会对该党有利。他还指出，民主党人提前投票的比例高于共和党选民，在他看来这意味着“到目前为止，对民主党人来说形势相当不错”。点击“”即表示您同意我们的使用条款和隐私政策。
He explained that Democratic “enthusiasm” is much higher than Republicans’ this cycle, which can only help the party. He also noted that Democrats have been voting early at higher rates than Republican voters, meaning to him that “So far, it looks pretty good for Democrats.”By clicking “” you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
“我预测民主党有67%的可能性夺回参议院，”利希特曼告诉该媒体。“我认为最可能但未必是最终的结果是51比49。要知道，这不是基于模型；这只是基于我对历史和当前政治的了解。”在民主党可能在参议院翻转的州中，利希特曼解释说，他对缅因州、北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州感觉良好，但表示他对密歇根州民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德与共和党人迈克·罗杰斯之间的选情没有把握。
“I have predicted a 67 per cent chance that the Democrats would take back the Senate,” Lichtman told the outlet. “I think the most likely but not necessarily definitive outcome is 51-49. This is not based on a model, understand; it’s just based on my knowledge of history and current politics.”Of the states that could be potential pick-ups for Democrats in the Senate, Lichtman explained that he had a good feeling about Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, but said he was unsure about Michigan in the race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers.
利赫特曼最为人熟知的是他提出的所谓“13把钥匙”，他说这13个要点可以预示谁将成为下一任总统。但利赫特曼解释说，他的工具也可以预测中期选举。
Lichtman is best known for developing what he calls the “13 Keys,” which he says are 13 points that can show who will become the next president. But Lichtman explained that his tool can also predict midterm elections.
“我们正处于一个奇怪的时期，但当你审视那些存在不得人心的战争且总统支持率低迷的情况时，1966年就是一个很好的例子，”他说。“林登·约翰逊（一位民主党总统）刚刚在1964年赢得了一场最大的压倒性胜利之一。但随后国家形势开始恶化，[越南]战争越打越糟。城市骚乱席卷全国，民主党在1966年遭遇了惨败。”尽管如此，他对当前形势的评估恰恰是在他错误预测前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯将赢得2024年总统大选之后做出的。他关于阿尔·戈尔将赢得2000年大选的预测也受到了质疑。
“We are in a strange time but when you look at situations where there’s an unpopular war and the president’s approval rating is low, 1966 is a great example,” he said. “Lyndon Johnson [a Democratic president] had just won one of the biggest landslide victories in 1964. But then things were going bad for the country, the [Vietnam] war was going sour. Urban riots were sweeping the country and Democrats took a huge pasting in 1966.”Still, his assessment of the state of play comes just after he incorrectly predicted that former Vice President Kamala Harris would win the 2024 presidential election. His prediction that Al Gore would win the 2000 election has also come under question.