菲律宾副总统萨拉·杜特尔特-卡皮奥的弹劾审判可能即将结束，因为控方决定撤销对她的几项指控，法律专家表示，此举旨在加快审判进程，并通过聚焦最有力的证据来确保定罪。
The impeachment trial of Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio may soon draw to a close after the prosecution decided to drop several of her charges, a move that legal experts have said is intended to speed up the trial and secure a conviction by focusing on the strongest evidence against her.
分析人士指出，除了审判本身，这一决定可能对2028年总统大选产生重大政治影响，迅速作出裁决可能会排除一名强有力的候选人。
Beyond the trial, the decision could have significant political implications for the 2028 presidential race, with a swift verdict potentially removing a strong candidate, according to analysts.
10月13日，众议院的一个控方小组撤销了针对杜特尔特-卡皮奥的四项弹劾条款中的三项。
On October 13, a prosecution panel from the House of Representatives dropped three of the four articles of impeachment against Duterte-Carpio.
被撤销的指控包括：她涉嫌挪用6.125亿比索（约970万美元）机密资金；担任教育部长期间贿赂下属以规避采购法；以及涉嫌犯下“重罪”，密谋刺杀总统、总统夫人和众议院议长，并在一次直播新闻发布会上对此吹嘘。
Among the withdrawn charges were allegations that she had misused 612.5 million pesos (US$9.7 million) in confidential funds; bribed subordinates while serving as education secretary to circumvent procurement laws; and committed “high crimes” by plotting to assassinate the president, his wife and the House speaker, and boasting about it during a live-streamed press conference.
剩下的一项条款指控她未按宪法要求申报高达15亿比索的资产，且未按公职人员行为准则剥离其公司股份。
The one remaining article alleges that she failed to declare up to 1.5 billion pesos’ worth of assets, as required of public officials under the constitution, and failed to divest her corporate shares in violation of the Code of Conduct for public officials.
曾在2012年已故最高法院首席大法官雷纳托·科罗纳弹劾案中担任辩方成员的特兰奎尔·萨尔瓦多表示，控方的策略显示其有信心仅凭这一项指控就能获得足够的表面证据以定罪。
According to Tranquil Salvador, a former member of the defence team for the late Supreme Court chief justice Renato Corona in his 2012 impeachment trial, the prosecution’s strategy showed that it was confident of securing enough prima facie evidence to convict her on this charge alone.
萨尔瓦多说，在四项条款中，不明财产指控“最容易证明”，因为它基于“书面证据”，且公众容易理解这一问题。
Among the four articles, the unexplained wealth charge was “the easiest to prove” because it was based on “documentary evidence” and the public could easily understand the issue, Salvador said.
诉讼与人权律师迪诺·辛森·德莱昂指出，控方仅依靠不明财产指控推进案件，显示出其“极度自信”。
Dino Singson de Leon, a litigation and human rights lawyer, noted the prosecution’s “overwhelming confidence” in relying solely on the charge of unexplained wealth to press its case against her.
然而，律师兼政治评论员Jesus Falcis表示：“他们把所有鸡蛋都放在一个篮子里，除非你确定这一个篮子就是赢家的篮子，否则绝不会这么做。”
However, Jesus Falcis, a lawyer and a political commentator, said: “They’re putting all their eggs in one basket, and you will never do that unless you are sure that one basket is the winning basket.”
Falcis对公众被剥夺了“了结”感到失望，因为其他三项指控被撤回。这些指控本可以揭示它们是否“构成背叛公众信任或应受谴责的违宪行为。这是否会让一名公职人员不适合继续留任？”
Falcis was disappointed that the public was deprived of “closure” because the three other charges were withdrawn. These could have shed light on whether they were “a betrayal of public trust or a culpable violation of the constitution. Does it make a public officer unfit to remain in office?”
他补充道：“我不一定同意这一策略，但我能理解并欣赏检方的策略。”Falcis表示，撤回其他三项指控将加快审判进程，并防止辩方——其举证阶段将于11月9日开始——传唤可能充当“替罪羊”的证人，由他们为其他指控承担责任，并声称副总统与机密资金挪用案无关。
He added: “I don’t necessarily agree with the strategy, but I can understand and appreciate the strategy of the prosecution.”Dropping the three other charges would speed up the trial and prevent the defence – whose turn to present evidence starts on November 9 – from introducing witnesses who could serve as “fall guys” by taking the blame on the other charges and claiming the vice-president had nothing to do with the misuse of confidential funds, Falcis said.
他说，检方希望尽快获得定罪，以便费迪南德·马科斯总统能任命副总统的继任者。Falcis补充道，随着Duterte-Carpio可能不再处于“政治棋盘”上，2028年总统大选的竞争者可能会更早浮现。
The prosecution would want a conviction soon to allow President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr to appoint the vice-president’s replacement, he said. With Duterte-Carpio possibly no longer on “the political chessboard”, the contenders for the 2028 presidential race could emerge earlier, Falcis added.
民调一致将Duterte-Carpio列为最有潜力的总统候选人之一。
Surveys have consistently placed Duterte-Carpio among the leading potential presidential contenders.
除了对针对Duterte-Carpio的案件感到愤怒外，杜特尔特家族成员还公开誓言要为马科斯决定将前总统罗德里戈·杜特尔特送往海牙、因其政府的禁毒战争面临反人类罪审判一事进行报复。
In addition to their anger over the case against Duterte-Carpio, members of the Duterte family have publicly vowed to avenge Marcos’ decision to send former president Rodrigo Duterte to The Hague to face trial for crimes against humanity over his administration’s war on drugs.
从政治角度来看，Salvador表示，撤回这三项指控是“一个好策略”。
When viewed from a political perspective, Salvador said dropping the three charges was “a good strategy”.
他说：“圣诞节临近，人们忙于许多事情，因此无法关注（庭审）。”他还说，如果另外三项指控没有被撤销，庭审可能会“拖延”到3月，届时政客们的注意力将集中在他们2028年的政治竞选活动上。
“Christmas is fast approaching, people are busy with a lot of things so they will not be able to follow [the trial],” he said. If the three other charges had not been dropped, the trial could “drag on” till March, when politicians’ attention would by then be focused on their 2028 political campaigns, he added.
德莱昂说，身为国会议员的检察官们可能已经察觉到公众对庭审“日益不耐烦”，于是决定集中精力处理“证据最确凿的那一项（指控）”。
De Leon said the prosecutors, who are congressmen, could have sensed the public’s “growing impatience” with the trial and decided to concentrate on “just one [charge] where the evidence is most damning”.
尽管如此，他补充说：“这一举动让我感到意外，因为被撤销的那些指控中证据非常有力。”
Nonetheless, “the move surprised me because of how compelling the evidence was in the withdrawn articles”, he added.
根据Momentum Research于10月16日至19日对全国1401名菲律宾受访者进行的一项调查，38.8%的人表示杜特尔特-卡皮奥应因“无法解释的财富指控”被定罪，33.8%的人支持她无罪释放，22.6%的人不确定，4.7%的人拒绝回答。
According to a survey of 1,401 Filipino respondents nationwide from October 16 to 19 by Momentum Research, 38.8 per cent said Duterte-Carpio should be convicted on “the unexplained wealth charge”, 33.8 per cent supported her acquittal, 22.6 per cent were unsure, and 4.7 per cent refused to reply.
德莱昂说，检方在突然减少证人人数后“承受了很大压力”。“不过，我个人并不认为辩方做得更好，鉴于我们迄今成功看到的证据。”
De Leon said the prosecution was “taking a lot of heat” after it suddenly reduced the number of its witnesses. “I do not personally believe, though, that the defence is doing a better job, in light of the evidence we have successfully seen thus far.”
法尔西斯说，此案表明菲律宾社会“严重两极分化”。“人们获取信息的方式以及人们对何为对错行为的认知，在很大程度上是按派系划分的。”根据调查，大多数中等收入者和低收入者表示副总统应被定罪。相比之下，贫困人群中有35.3%希望她被定罪，而36.1%的人表示她应被无罪释放。
Falcis said the case had shown how society in the Philippines was “deeply polarised”. “The way people consume information and the way people perceive what is a right or wrong action is very much factionalised.”According to the survey, most middle-income and low-income earners said the vice-president should be convicted. In comparison, 35.3 per cent among the poor wanted her to be convicted, while 36.1 per cent of them said she should be acquitted.
调查显示：“在各派系群体中，多数亲反对派成年人（72.9%）和亲马科斯成年人（63.5%）表示支持给杜特尔特定罪。”
“Across factional groups, the majority of pro-opposition [72.9 per cent] and pro-Marcos adults [63.5 per cent] have expressed their support for Duterte’s conviction,” the survey showed.
在杜特尔特的大本营棉兰老岛，53.1%的受访者希望她被无罪释放，只有8%的人支持定罪。
In Mindanao island, 53.1 per cent of respondents from the Duterte stronghold wanted her acquitted and only 8 per cent favoured conviction.
想要杜特尔特-卡皮奥被定罪的比例在婴儿潮一代、Z世代和X世代中分别为51.5%、40.9%和42.8%。
The proportions among baby boomers, Gen Z and Gen X who wanted Duterte-Carpio to be convicted were 51.5 per cent, 40.9 per cent and 42.8 per cent, respectively.
法尔西斯表示，主持审理此案的参议员法官可能已经形成了自己的立场。
According to Falcis, the senator-judges presiding over the case might have already formed their own position.
德莱昂对法官们会根据“证据的压倒性力量”判定杜特尔特-卡皮奥有罪表示有信心，并称他们必须“为自己的投票向公众负责”。
De Leon expressed confidence that the judges would convict Duterte-Carpio based on “the sheer strength of the evidence” and that they had to “answer to the public for their vote”.
萨尔瓦多说：“我不认为会有任何参议员承认他们将按党派路线投票。”
Salvador said: “I don’t think any senator will admit that they will vote on party lines.”