太平洋投资管理公司（Pimco）首席执行官埃马纽埃尔·罗曼表示，与人工智能相关的融资在未来五年内可能增长至约10万亿美元，最终达到过度水平。
Artificial intelligence-related financing could grow to about $10 trillion over the next five years, eventually reaching excessive levels, said Emmanuel Roman, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.
罗曼估计，未来五年每年可能产生约2万亿美元的融资需求，用于资助AI行业的资本支出，而美国债券市场规模约为12万亿美元。
Roman estimated that about $2 trillion of financing needs could be created annually over the next five years to fund capital spending by the AI industry, compared with a US bond market of about $12 trillion.
罗曼周二在香港举行的2026年全球金融领袖投资峰会上，与黑石集团总裁乔恩·格雷同台对话时表示，这一数额最终“将会过多”。“在某个时间点，将会出现低迷，然后事情就会崩塌，”罗曼说。他补充称，低迷可能由任何因素触发，从美国利率上升、中东战争到欧元区危机。
The amount is eventually “going to be too much,” Roman said during a panel with Blackstone Inc. President Jon Gray at the 2026 Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong on Tuesday. “At some point in time, there’s going to be a downturn, and then things are going to break,” Roman said. He added that a downturn could be triggered by anything from rising US interest rates or war in the Middle East to a euro-zone crisis.
当被问及在当今的投资组合构建中，过度谨慎还是承担过多风险会是更大的错误时，罗曼表示，更大的危险在于承担过多风险。
Asked whether being too cautious or taking on too much risk would be the bigger mistake for portfolio construction today, Roman said the greater danger was taking on too much risk.
格雷则表达了更为乐观的基调，称“今天的某些怀疑态度可能是健康的”，同时补充说，更广泛的AI趋势指向更多投资和大幅更大的资本需求。“正在发生的事情非常强大，我认为低估即将到来的生产力增益以及消费者和企业的变化，那将是一个错误，”格雷说。
Gray struck a more bullish tone, saying “some of this skepticism today is probably healthy,” while adding that the broader AI trend points to more investment and substantially greater demand for capital. “What is happening is very powerful, and I think underestimating the productivity gains that are coming and the change in consumer and businesses, that’s a mistake,” Gray said.