悉尼 -- 澳大利亚央行周二将现金利率上调至18年高位，这是今年内第五次加息，但以6比3的出人意料的微弱多数通过，暗示决策者可能正接近结束紧缩周期。
SYDNEY -- Australia's central bank raised its cash rate to an 18-year high on Tuesday in its fifth hike of the year, though a surprisingly narrow 6-3 vote signaled policymakers may be nearing the end of their tightening campaign.
在结束11月货币政策会议后，澳大利亚储备银行董事会将利率上调25个基点至4.85%，并表示将继续采取其认为必要的措施，使通胀回到目标区间。不过，声明删去了“如有必要将进一步加息”的表述。
Wrapping up its November policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia's board lifted rates by 25 basis points to 4.85% and said it would continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation to target. However, it did remove a reference to increasing the cash rate further if needed.
市场抓住这一不那么鹰派的基调，推动澳元走低，并增强了押注：澳储行将在下个月会议上维持利率不变。澳元兑美元汇率下跌0.3%至0.6979美元，三年期国债期货下跌4个基点至95.13。
Markets seized on the less-hawkish tone, pushing the Australian dollar lower and strengthening bets that the RBA will leave rates unchanged at its meeting next month. The Aussie dollar AUD=D3slipped 0.3% to $0.6979 and three-year government bond futures YTTc1fell 4 ticks to 95.13.
路透社调查的32位经济学家中有30位预期加息，在第三季度通胀数据火热及决策者鹰派言论盖过失业率升至五年高位的担忧后，市场隐含加息概率达88%。
Thirty of 32 economists polled by Reuters expected a hike, while markets implied an 88% chance of a move after hot third-quarter inflation data and hawkish commentary from policymakers eclipsed concerns about unemployment climbing to a five-year high. 0 "Given the revised inflation outlook and the continuing upside risks, the Board judged that a further tightening in financial conditions is warranted to support the return of inflation to target," the board said in a statement.
董事会在声明中表示：“鉴于修正后的通胀前景及持续存在的上行风险，董事会判断，有必要进一步收紧金融条件，以支持通胀回到目标区间。”
"The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target." The RBA's 125 basis points of tightening this year has more than reversed the 75 basis points of policy easing from 2025, putting Australia at the hawkish end of developed market central banks. Elsewhere, the Federal Reserve stayed on hold this month while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand stunned markets by pausing in a razor-thin vote.
“董事会将继续采取其认为必要的措施，使通胀可持续地回到目标区间。”澳储行今年累计加息125个基点，已完全抵消2025年75个基点的宽松幅度，使澳大利亚处于发达经济体央行鹰派的一端。其他方面，美联储本月维持利率不变，而新西兰储备银行以极微弱多数决定暂停加息，令市场大为震惊。
"The challenge for the RBA is that inflation remains sticky just as growth momentum is beginning to slow," said Katherine Palmer, head of fixed income strategy at BlackRock Australia.
“澳储行面临的挑战在于，通胀依然顽固，而增长动能却开始放缓，”贝莱德澳大利亚固定收益策略主管凯瑟琳·帕尔默表示。
"With the full effect of this year's tightening still working its way through the economy, we expect the RBA to hold from here as it assesses incoming data and policy transmission, while retaining the option to tighten further if inflation pressures fail to ease," Palmer added.
帕尔默补充说：“由于今年紧缩政策的全面影响仍在经济中发挥作用，我们预计澳大利亚储备银行从现在起将维持利率不变，同时评估后续数据和政策传导，并保留在通胀压力未能缓解时进一步收紧的选项。”
Stephen Smith, a partner at Deloitte Access Economics, said the split 6-3 vote reflected the difficult trade-off facing policymakers as households cut spending and businesses grapple with softer demand.
德勤经济咨询公司合伙人斯蒂芬·史密斯表示，6比3的投票结果反映出政策制定者面临的艰难取舍，随着家庭削减支出、企业应对需求趋软。
"Today's increase adds to the risk that growth will weaken by more than expected through next year, even as inflation stays elevated," Smith said.
史密斯说：“今天的加息加剧了明年经济增长可能超过预期地放缓的风险，即使通胀仍处于高位。”
A separate RBA update on the economic outlook saw its inflation forecasts raised "materially" and staying high for longer, even assuming interest rates remained around current levels for a year or more.
澳大利亚储备银行另一份关于经济展望的更新报告将其通胀预测“大幅”上调，并预计通胀高企将持续更长时间，即便假设利率在一年或更长时间内保持在当前水平附近。这预示着可能出现长期经济增长疲弱和持续价格压力。
That points to the prospect of a prolonged period of weak growth and persistent price pressures.
史密斯说：“对于已经在削减支出的家庭和面临销售疲软的企业来说，这是一个艰难的结果……这或许可以解释为什么今天的加息决定是6比3的投票结果。”
"That is a difficult outcome for households already cutting spending and businesses facing weaker sales... This could explain why today's call to hike rates was a split 6-3 decision," Smith said.
澳大利亚政策制定者担心，油价上涨可能推高经济中更广泛的价格压力，并使通胀预期脱锚。第三季度，核心通胀率加速升至3.7%的两年高点，此前通胀率已超过五年时间处于央行2%至3%目标区间之上。
Australian policymakers fear elevated oil prices could feed into broader price pressures in the economy and unmoor inflation expectations. Underlying inflation accelerated to a two-year high of 3.7% in the third quarter, after spending more than five years above the central bank's 2% to 3% target band.
政策收紧的影响在房地产市场感受最为明显，该市场有望出现四十年来最大规模的低迷。预计这场低迷将通过负财富效应抑制家庭支出，并波及与住房交易相关的行业，从房地产中介和产权转让公司到搬家服务公司。
The policy tightening has been felt most acutely in the housing market, which is on track for its biggest downturn in four decades. The slump is expected to curb household spending through negative wealth effects and ripple across industries tied to housing turnover, from real estate agencies and conveyancing firms to removal companies.
劳动力市场也有所放缓，失业率触及4.7%的五年高位，但央行仍认为劳动力市场略偏紧，是通胀压力的一个来源。
The labour market has also softened, with the unemployment rate hitting a five-year high of 4.7%, but the central bank still judges it to be a little tight and a source of inflationary pressures.
澳大利亚经济在较高借贷成本的重压下放缓，但放缓幅度不足以缓解通胀担忧，数据中心投资热潮持续推动需求，而经济受限于供给有限。
Australia's economy has slowed under the weight of higher borrowing costs, but not enough to ease inflation concerns, with a data centre investment boom continuing to fuel demand in an economy constrained by limited supply.