中东石油市场显示，近期供应首次自7月以来超过需求——当时美伊达成临时停火，油轮得以经霍尔木兹海峡驶出波斯湾，导致全球油价暴跌。
East oil markets are indicating near-term supply is outpacing demand for the first time since July — when global prices plummeted after a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran allowed tankers to exit the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.
帮助制定该地区几乎所有原油出口定价的区域基准迪拜原油最近期限价差，本周初处于看跌的升水结构。据要求匿名讨论商业信息的交易员和经纪人透露，11月合约最后报价较12月合约贴水约2美元/桶。
The nearest timespread for the regional Dubai benchmark, which helps set pricing for nearly all the crude exported from the region, was in a bearish contango structure at the start of the week. The November contract was last at a discount of about $2 a barrel to December, according to traders and brokers, who asked not to be named discussing commercial information.
据彭博汇编的数据，中东阿拉伯产油国的原油发货量与2月战争爆发前大致持平，而伊朗出口实际上仍处于停滞状态。沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国、伊拉克和科威特的合计出口量上月增长10%，升至略高于1500万桶/日。
The Middle East’s Arab oil producing nations are shipping crude at about the same rate as before the war started in February, while Iranian exports remain effectively halted, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Combined exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait climbed by 10% to just over 15 million barrels a day last month.
斯巴达大宗商品公司高级石油市场分析师June Goh表示：“虽然发货量增加了，但我们并未回到6月底那种小规模供过于求的局面，因为当时有大量原油滞留在超大型油轮上并已驶离。这一次，增量更为渐进。”标普全球普氏能源运营的一个关键交易窗口上的成交价格也走弱，这是潜在供过于求的另一迹象。所谓的“部分船货”（可转换为实物桶）以接近平价水平对基础迪拜衍生品基准成交，它们通常相对于对应的金融标志物享有升水。
While flows have risen, “we are not at the same point of a mini-glut back in end-June because at that time, there was a huge volume of oil that was sitting on very large crude carriers, and exited,” said June Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities SA. “This time, the increase is more gradual.”Transactions on a key trading window run by S&P Global Energy were also done at weaker levels, in another sign of potential oversupply. So-called partials, which can be converted into physical barrels, traded at near-parity to the underlying Dubai derivatives benchmark. They typically command a premium to the corresponding financial marker.
供应增加，以及美伊重启和平协议谈判的可能性，在全球油价10月触及六个月高点后帮助其降温。布伦特原油和美国标志性原油西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）周一均下跌约7%。
The increased supply, as well as the possibility of renewed talks to pursue a peace deal between the US and Iran, has helped cool global oil prices after they hit a six-month high in October. Brent crude and US marker West Texas Intermediate both fell by around 7% on Monday.
“能源市场昨日出现激进回调，”荷兰国际集团（ING Groep NV）大宗商品策略主管沃伦·帕特森在一份报告中表示。“此举源于对潜在美伊会谈的新希望。虽然我们以前见过这种情况，但最终没有实质性进展，但目前似乎双方都释放了积极信号。”
“Energy markets saw an aggressive pullback yesterday,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy for ING Groep NV, said in a note. “The move comes amid new hopes for potential US-Iran talks. While we’ve seen this before with nothing materializing, positive signals appear to be coming from both the US and Iran.”