西尔弗告诉我们，他将这次中期选举称为“进退两难的选举”——背景条件对民主党赢得众议院和参议院非常有利，但要实现这一点，该党必须完成几代人未曾发生的事情，比如赢得得克萨斯州。
Silver tells us he is calling this midterms the “rock and a hard place election” — the background conditions are great for Democrats to win both the House and the Senate, but for that to come to pass, the party has to pull off some things that haven't happened in generations, like winning Texas.
要相信这种情况会发生，需要某种程度的信仰跨越，这正是民调专家所忌讳的。
To believe that will happen requires a certain leap of faith, which is anathema to pollsters.
尽管如此，民调普遍认为民主党更受青睐，但如果当晚结果并非如此，许多专业民调专家将颜面尽失。
Still, the polls generally believe Democrats are favored, but many professional pollsters would end up with egg on their face if the night does not go that way.
Silver Bulletin的创始人西尔弗今天做客节目，讨论为什么围绕民调误差的流行说法是错误的、预测市场、为什么他认为人工智能不会取代民调专家，以及今晚投票站关闭时他正在关注什么。
Silver — the founder of Silver Bulletin — joins us today to discuss why popular narratives around polling error are wrong, prediction markets, why he doesn't think AI will replace pollsters, and what he is paying attention to tonight as the polls close.