政治分析家内特·西尔弗周日预测，一场“蓝色海啸”即将来临。“《纽约时报》/锡耶纳大学今晚发布了他们大概率是最后一轮民调，显示的数字对民主党来说只能用‘极好’来形容，民主党在几乎每个参议院关键州以及相关的州长选举中领先，有时是微弱领先，有时则不是，包括得克萨斯州，”西尔弗在他的通讯中写道。
Political analyst Nate Silver predicted Sunday that a "blue tsunami" is on the horizon. “NYT/Siena released their presumably final set of polls this evening, and they showed what can only be described as fantastic numbers for Democrats, putting them ahead — sometimes narrowly, sometimes not — in basically every Senate battleground and in the associated governor’s races, including in Texas,” Silver wrote in his newsletter.
西尔弗是一位政治预测员和统计学家，他对《纽约时报》和锡耶纳大学最新发布的一系列民调作出反应，该民调显示民主党在关键参议院竞选中领先于共和党对手。“《纽约时报》/锡耶纳大学今晚发布了他们大概率是最后一轮民调，显示的数字对民主党来说只能用‘极好’来形容，民主党在几乎每个参议院关键州以及相关的州长选举中领先，有时是微弱领先，有时则不是，包括得克萨斯州，”西尔弗在他的通讯中写道，并指出，大部分民调与他的模型一致。
Silver, a political forecaster and statistician, reacted to the newest slate of polling from The New York Times and Sienna University showing Democrats leading their GOP opponents in key Senate contests. “NYT/Siena released their presumably final set of polls this evening, and they showed what can only be described as fantastic numbers for Democrats, putting them ahead — sometimes narrowly, sometimes not — in basically every Senate battleground and in the associated governor’s races, including in Texas,” Silver wrote in his newsletter, noting that the much of the polling is in line with his modeling.
《纽约时报》周日发布的最后一轮民调显示，民主党在许多关键参议院战场州领先，包括在密歇根州领先11个百分点，在得克萨斯州领先七个，在堪萨斯州领先五个，在阿拉斯加州领先一个。西尔弗表示，该民调结果接近，但不在其模型的“奇怪”区间内，并补充说，数据表明民主党很可能夺取参议院控制权。“鉴于最新一轮调查，民主党实际上可以承受中等规模的民调误差，并可能仍然获胜，”西尔弗写道。
The final round of polls released by The Times Sunday showed Democrats leading in many of the key Senate battlegrounds, including in Michigan by 11 percentage points, in Texas by seven, Kansas by five and Alaska by one. Silver said the poll’s results were close but not within his model’s “weird” territory, adding that the data suggests Democrats are likely to take the Senate. “Democrats could actually absorb a modest-sized polling error and perhaps still prevail given the latest round of surveys,” Silver wrote.
距离选举日不到一天，民主党在民调中占据优势。他们有望在历史上属于共和党的州获胜或进行激烈竞争，包括南卡罗来纳州、堪萨斯州和爱荷华州。西尔弗指出，即使民主党在这些红州选举中输掉几场，也不一定会抱怨。
With less than one day out from Election Day, Democrats hold the edge in the polls. They are poised to win or seriously compete in historically red states, including South Carolina, Kansas and Iowa. Silver pointed out that even if Democrats lose a handful of these red state races, they won’t necessarily be complaining.
“即使民主党在这些选举中输掉一两场——实际上，我认为在阿拉斯加对他们来说有些坏消息——只要他们能翻转本图表中的前五场选举，尤其是伴随得克萨斯州州长职位，绝不会有民主党人抱怨，”西尔弗写道。这位预测者表示，他的机构通常不会过分关注单一民调，但《纽约时报》/锡耶纳民调已将其模型对民主党夺取参议院多数席位机会的预测推至80%左右。
“Even if Democrats were to lose a couple of these races — and there’s actually some bad news for them here in Alaska, I think — absolutely no Democrat is going to complain if they only flip the top five races in this chart, especially if it comes along with the Texas governorship,” Silver wrote. The forecaster said while his operation typically does not focus closely on one poll, the NYT/Sienna poll has pushed his model’s forecast of Democrats chance at the Senate majority into the 80 percent range.
他表示，虽然本轮选举该民调为民主党带来了有利数据，但这一点已被纳入考量。“尽管该模型高度信赖《纽约时报》/锡耶纳民调——它们是我们评级较高的民调机构之一——但它会对每家调查机构的数据进行‘民调偏差’修正。换句话说，它知道《纽约时报》/锡耶纳本轮选举倾向于为民主党带来有利数据，这一点已计入其预测，”西尔弗写道。
He said while the poll has produced favorable numbers for Democrats this cycle, that is taken into account. “Although the model trusts the NYT/Siena polls a lot — they’re among our more highly-rated pollsters — it does adjust every survey firm’s numbers for house effects. In other words, it knows that NYT/Siena has tended to have good numbers for Democrats this cycle, and that’s priced into its forecasts,” Silver wrote.