伊朗战争不得人心，特朗普却仍不断谈论。为何？特朗普总统反复提醒美国选民一个不利的竞选议题，正值选民前往投票之际。这是为何？
The Iran War Is Unpopular. Trump Keeps Talking About It Anyway. President Trump has repeatedly reminded Americans of a losing campaign issue just as voters head to the polls. Why?
伊朗战争在美国民众中极不受欢迎。近期民调显示，多达三分之二的选民不赞成特朗普总统对这场持续八个月冲突的处理，该冲突推高了物价并耗尽了美国弹药储备。然而在竞选最后几天，特朗普先生仍不断谈论伊朗。
The war in Iran is deeply unpopular with Americans. Recent polls indicate as many as two-thirds of voters disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the eight-month conflict, which has driven up prices and depleted U.S. ammunition stockpiles. Yet in the final days of the campaign, Mr. Trump kept talking about it.
“我们仍须处理，我想大概是一两个地点，但我们能在10分钟内搞定，”他周六对记者说。
“We still have to take care of, I would say, one or two sites, but we can do that in 10 minutes,” he told reporters on Saturday.
“我们之所以还没结束伊朗事务，唯一原因是我想好好做，我想尽可能挽救那些生命，”他在周日的竞选集会上说。
“The only reason we’re not finished with Iran is, I want to be nice, I want to try and save all those lives if I can,” he said at a campaign rally on Sunday.
“我们跟伊朗打过仗，”他周一补充道，“我们赢了。”数小时后，官员证实美军已袭击伊朗的格什姆岛，并称这是一项不预期会升级的防御性措施。以下是分析人士认为特朗普先生不断提及伊朗的三大原因。
“We had a war with Iran,” he added Monday. “We won.”Hours later, officials confirmed that the U.S. military had struck Iran’s Qeshm Island in what they described as a defensive measure that was not expected to escalate. Here are three reasons why Mr. Trump kept bringing up Iran, according to analysts.
推动伊朗达成协议 特朗普先生以善于交易自居，可能正试图重启谈判。
To push Iran toward a deal Mr. Trump, who prides himself on his deal-making, could be trying to restart talks.
“无党派智库和平与外交研究所所长阿塔·莫伊尼表示：“通过威胁打击，他想向伊朗人传递一个信息：‘现在来谈判桌前，否则后果自负。’”该研究所主张军事克制。
“By threatening strikes, he wants to send the Iranians a message: ‘Come to the table now or else,’” said Arta Moeini, managing director of the nonpartisan Institute for Peace and Diplomacy, which advocates for military restraint.
伊朗外交部周一表示，如果美国同意若干要求，包括解除对伊朗的经济制裁和释放数十亿美元被冻结的伊朗资产，伊朗准备在两天内重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。
Iran’s foreign ministry on Monday said it was prepared to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in two days if the United States agreed to several demands, including lifting U.S. economic sanctions against Iran and releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets.
特朗普政府不太可能接受任何一项条件。莫伊尼表示：“目前，特朗普‘会再次使用外交承诺的方式，就像他以前所做的那样’，他可以宣布这一点，也许能为选举带来更好的结果，但随后又会说，‘他们没有兑现承诺，所以我们可以发动攻击。’”‘硬汉’的言辞曾经奏效，威胁性言论是特朗普品牌的一部分，也帮助他赢得了忠实追随者。
The Trump administration is unlikely to accept either condition. For now, Mr. Trump “is going to use the promise of diplomacy again, as he has done before,” Mr. Moeini said. “He can announce that, and maybe get better results for the election, but still later say, ‘They didn’t do what they promised to do, and so we can attack.’” ‘Tough guy’ rhetoric has worked before Threatening rhetoric is part of Mr. Trump’s brand and has helped him build a loyal following.
“美国公众舆论中存在一种非常真实的倾向——杰克逊主义传统——它喜欢一个展现硬朗、准备打击坏人的领导者，”伦敦政策研究所查塔姆研究院的研究主任安德鲁·佩恩说。
“There is a very real strand of American public opinion, the Jacksonian tradition, that likes a leader who projects toughness and who is prepared to whack the bad guys,” said Andrew Payne, a research director at Chatham House, a policy institute in London.
但佩恩称对伊朗的这种做法是一种“误导性的”政治策略。“你已经看到了民调，”他说。
But Mr. Payne called that approach to Iran a “misguided” political strategy. “You’ve seen the polling,” he said.
他把伊朗视为遗产问题，但民调对特朗普未来的影响将变得不那么重要。无论周二选举结果如何，他都将进入任期最后两年——总统往往在此期间冒险制定政策以巩固遗产。
He sees Iran as a legacy issue Yet polling will matter less for Mr. Trump going forward. Regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s elections, he will be entering his final two years in office, a period when presidents often take policy risks to secure their legacies.
佩恩说：“他在一定程度上把自己的遗产与外交政策，尤其是伊朗挂钩。对他来说，长期获得有利解决方案比担心短期民调影响更重要。”特朗普政府已将三艘航空母舰、数千名海军陆战队员、战斗机和特种作战部队调往波斯湾地区，准备在数日内发动打击。
“He has staked his legacy in foreign policy, to some degree, on Iran,” Mr. Payne said. “It’s more important for him to try and get some favorable resolution to that in the long term than worrying about the short-term impact at the polls.”The Trump administration is already moving three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and Special Operations forces to the Persian Gulf region, to be ready to strike within days.
莫伊尼表示：“我确实认为他无论如何都会升级。”他认为这不是空谈。罗马《时代报》记者拉拉·杰克斯报道冲突与外交，重点关注武器以及乌克兰和中东战争。她已从事新闻工作超过30年。
“I do believe that he will escalate no matter what,” Mr. Moeini said. “I don’t think that’s cheap talk.”Lara Jakes, a Times reporter based in Rome, reports on conflict and diplomacy, with a focus on weapons and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. She has been a journalist for more than 30 years.