哈佛大学最新更新的选举模型预测，民主党在中期选举中赢得众议院和参议院多数席位的机会很大。
Recently updated election models from Harvard University forecast a strong chance of Democrats winning a majority of seats in the House and the Senate in the midterm elections.
哈佛模型预测，民主党夺取众议院的概率高达96%。根据该模型，共和党赢得众议院的可能性“相当于在二十面骰子上掷出20点”。研究人员写道：“我们的预测预计，处于劣势的一方以这种赔率获胜的情况大约每26次选举出现一次。上一次劣势方以类似赔率获胜是在1952年。”
The chances of Democrats taking the House is as good as 96 percent, the Harvard model forecasts. According to the model, the chances of Republicans winning the House, is “as likely as rolling a 20 on a twenty-sided die.”“Our forecast expects the underdog to win with these odds once in about 26 elections. The last time an underdog won with similar odds was 1952,” researchers wrote.
民主党需要218个席位才能控制众议院，根据哈佛的模型，186个席位被标记为稳操胜券，36个为很有希望，9个为倾向民主党。模型预测有10个席位属于势均力敌。根据该模型的总体预测，民主党将在众议院获得242个席位。
The Democrats need 218 seats to take the House and, by Harvard’s models, 186 seats are labeled as safe, 36 as likely and nine as leaning toward Democrats. The model predicts 10 seats as toss-ups. The overall projection, by this model, stands at 242 Democratic seats in House.
尽管概率略低于众议院，但根据哈佛的预测，民主党仍有78%的机会夺取参议院。
Even thought the odds are slightly lower than the House, the Democrats still have a 78 percent chance of taking the Senate, according to the Harvard.
赢得参议院多数需要51个席位，哈佛目前的总体预测显示民主党将在参议院获得53个席位。
To win the Senate majority, a party would need 51 seats and the current overall projections from Harvard forecasts 53 Democratic seats in the Senate.
在今年进行的35场参议院竞选中，有7场被列为竞争激烈的竞选。得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州、堪萨斯州和阿拉斯加州的竞选处于“倾向民主党”类别，而南卡罗来纳州和内布拉斯加州的竞选处于“倾向共和党”类别。模型显示，爱荷华州的参议院竞选属于势均力敌。
Out of the 35 Senate races happening this year, seven have been labeled as competitive races. Races in Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Alaska are in the Lean Democrat category while South Carolina and Nebraska are in the Lean Republican category. The model shows the Iowa Senate race is a toss-up.
该模型结合历史民调误差给出了五种预测情景。这包括民调准确、正常民调误差有利于民主党或共和党，以及历史民调误差有利于任一方的情况。
The model presents five scenarios of predictability along with historical polling errors. This includes if the polls are correct, normal polling error favoring Democrats or Republicans and historic polling error favoring either party.
预测称：“自1950年以来，民调的中位数误差为双向2个百分点，在19次中期选举中，有3次的误差在0.5个百分点以内。”
“Since 1950, the median polling error is 2 points in either direction, and 3 of the 19 midterms have had an error within 0.5 points,” according to the forecast.