A Democratic victory in California’s gubernatorial election on Tuesday would likely preserve existing cooperation with China, but it would not be as fervent as it was during the era of outgoing governor Gavin Newsom, according to analysts.

During the campaign - which is taking place alongside the midterm federal races for Congress - neither candidate in the state known for Silicon Valley and Hollywood has publicly talked about sustaining climate and tech ties with China, a contrast to Newsom’s China-friendly approach and Washington’s wide-ranging rivalry.

Democrat Xavier Becerra is running against Republican Steve Hilton, with tentative election results due as early as Wednesday Hong Kong time. Becerra, a former US Health and Human Services secretary, was leading Hilton, a former Fox News host, in multiple polls as of late October.

As the Democrat, Becerra may continue Newsom’s approach and keep engaging with China on economic issues tied to climate and new energy, analysts said.

He would recognise China as a source of pollution but also as a “powerhouse for innovation” in renewable energy technology, said Ma Jun, director of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs in Beijing.

California, the largest US state by population and with an economy bigger than those of most countries at US$4.25 trillion, has made a name in climate change by pledging to reach carbon neutrality by 2045. China is aiming for carbon neutrality by 2060.

“I think the Democrats still pay [a lot of] attention to climate change, so if they get elected it will be difficult not to have any cooperation with China,” Ma said.

California’s work with China began in 2013 under former governor Jerry Brown with a memorandum of understanding to cooperate on clean energy technology, low-carbon development and carbon-trading systems.

After Newsom took office in 2019 during US President Donald Trump’s first trade war with China – which made subnational ties more important for Beijing – California ramped up its deal making.

Analysts have said that climate-related exchanges help both sides control air pollution and promote the use of electric vehicles.

But the new governor’s efforts would probably lack Newsom’s fervour because US federal policy towards China is getting in the way, experts said.

Washington’s restrictions on technology exports, investment and China’s access to the US market limit cooperation on “strategic technologies”, said Xu Tianchen, a senior China economist with The Economist Intelligence Unit in Beijing.

US laws targeting imports of key solar panel components, semiconductors and EV batteries further “constrain the cooperation with China to build global supply chains”, said Liang Yan, a professor of economics at Willamette University in the US.

In August, four Republican legislators called for a federal investigation into whether California’s climate and technology agreements with China infringed on US foreign policy authority.

US officials probably would not seek to prevent any China-California “dialogue” but could get tough on any US visas needed, said Rod Rosenstein, co-lead of the US congressional investigations practice at the Baker McKenzie law firm.

Becerra “may moderate the tone to be more transactional” by protecting California’s green industries from Chinese competition, Liang said.

Reduced China-California contact would limit opportunities for research collaboration and tech commercialisation for China, Xu said. It also could “deprive California businesses of access to Chinese technologies and industrial expertise”, he added.

California has signed memorandums of understanding with China’s National Development and Reform Commission, two Chinese provinces and the municipalities of Beijing and Shanghai to advance climate policy and help set up green partnerships. For example, an agreement with Hainan province aims at improving academic exchanges on air pollution and clean vehicles.

Separately, a 2022 memorandum called for exchanges on the implementation of emissions trading systems and for expanding markets for zero-emission vehicles – a key industry in China.