像 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 这样的预测市场官方立场是不在乎押注的哪一方获胜。
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket officially don't care which side of a bet wins.
- 没有“庄家”。无论哪边赢，它们都能抽成。这种商业模式吸引了数十亿美元的风险投资。
• There is no "house." They get their cut either way. It's a business model that's attracted billions of VC dollars.
但： Kalshi 和 Polymarket 今天在中期选举中应当大力支持民主党。即使这感觉有些违反直觉。
Yes, but: Kalshi and Polymarket should be pulling hard for Democrats in today's midterm elections. Even if that feels counterintuitive.
快速回顾：两年前，预测市场进入公众视野，当时其用户正确“预测”唐纳德·特朗普击败卡玛拉·哈里斯。这在公众对传统民调信任崩塌之际，赋予了它们公信力。
Catch up quick: Prediction markets burst into the public consciousness two years ago, when their users correctly "picked" Donald Trump to beat Kamala Harris. It bestowed credibility at a time when public trust in traditional polling had cratered.
快进到现在：然而最近，它们在巴西和以色列的选举中出现失误。第三次失误就会形成趋势。
Fast forward: More recently, however, they had electoral misses in Brazil and Israel. Three would be a trend.
- 两个平台目前都设有民主党横扫国会的市场，“是”的概率约为 75%。
• Both platforms currently have markets on Democrats sweeping Congress, with "yes" at around 75%.
- 如果今天的结果如此，将进一步巩固预测市场的合法性。但如果共和党赢得任一议院的控制权，就会把它们归入与民调机构同一类——即使 75% 的概率包含相当大的不可能性。
• If that's how today plays out, it would further cement prediction market legitimacy. A Republican win in either chamber, however, would dump them into the same pot as pollsters — even if 75% probability includes a sizable improbability. Zoom in:
深度聚焦：民主党通常比共和党更敌视预测市场，但 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等公司不必过多担心民主党控制的国会。
Democrats are often more hostile to prediction markets than are Republicans, but companies like Kalshi and Polymarket don't have too much to fear from a Democrat-controlled Congress.
- 会有一两场令人尴尬的听证会。但两院都不会拥有否决权所需的三分之二多数，且特朗普政府对该行业非常友善。
• Yes, there would probably be an uncomfortable hearing or two. But neither chamber would have veto-proof majorities, and the Trump administration has been very sympathetic to the industry.
- 真正的约束（如果有的话）更可能来自最高法院。
• The real constraints, if any, are more likely to come via the Supreme Court.
底线：政治预测为 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 带来的收入远少于体育预测，但其长尾效应要长得多。
The bottom line: Political predictions generate much less revenue for Kalshi and Polymarket than do sports predictions, but they have a much longer tail.