A Russian military satellite dangerously maneuvered to follow a vital U.S. orbital radar last month in what seems to be the first use of an in-orbit weapon in space.

Russia’s Cosmos 2612 satellite was observed “stalking” a U.S. registered synthetic aperture radar satellite providing intelligence to Ukraine, positioning it for potential close proximity operations to be used as an orbital weapon.

Commercial space situational awareness data shows a set of six Russian satellites launched in April executing high-energy stalking maneuvers to approach American reconnaissance satellites. These maneuvers cost the Russian satellites a considerable amount of fuel but put them into position to rapidly attack American assets.

“Russia was deploying a space weapon there,” General Stephen Whitting of the U.S. Space Command told the Center for Strategic and International Studies, adding that it was put “into an orbit where they can reach critical U.S. national security satellites.”This is hugely dangerous, as it is occurring at the same time that Russia seems to be preparing a series of ground-side sabotage operations against NATO allies such as Poland. Russia may be emboldened, as it launched a series of limited gray-zone sabotage operations against Germany in September which resulted in virtually no consequences beyond Berlin ordering the closure of a Russian consulate and cultural center.

Such a muted response signals to Moscow that risks are low, potentially causing it to expand the envelope with space-based gray-zone operations like Cosmos 2612. In short, Cosmos 2612’s trajectory represents a concrete test of Western resolve in space; if it transitions from positioning to action, it could mark the opening shots of more overt orbital conflict.

America should publicly warn Russia now that hostile action against our satellites will be treated as an attack on U.S. interests, with consequences so Moscow knows the price of such irresponsible behavior. Publicly declaring high-value U.S. commercial satellites supporting partners like Ukraine are within America’s defense perimeter would go a long way. Deciding and publicly communicating this now would prevent further Russian gray-zone actions that put humanity’s future in space at immense risk.

The potential consequences of even a limited conflict in space could be devastating. By moving so close to U.S. satellites, Russia risks triggering what scientists call the Kessler syndrome, in which each collision generates space debris that increases the likelihood of further collisions. Thus, any conflict in orbit could quickly get out of hand and jeopardize mankind’s ability to safely access space for multiple generations.

Destroying a satellite in orbit could be the equivalent of firing a shotgun in a crowded room where anyone hit by the initial blast would also be forced to let off a shotgun blast of their own in a dangerous chain reaction. Such a reaction would deprive Russia of its own satellites, but Putin may regard that as a win because the American military is more reliant on space as a force multiplier than Russia.

Roughly 66 percent of active satellites in orbit today belong to SpaceX’s Starlink internet network, which offered the Ukrainian forces fighting Russia such an immense advantage that Putin’s army first tried to adopt it and then began launching sabotage attacks against its ground facilities.

For example, America’s incredible F-35 fighter relies heavily on space-based communications satellites to create the network centric warfare effects that make it such a powerful tool. The satellites that are now vulnerable to Russia are the same ones ensuring that America’s precision weapons can pinpoint targets so accurately that strike errors are measured in inches.

Presently, the U.S. Space Force, the National Reconnaissance Office, and associated assets under U.S. Space Command dominated space and that superiority played a pivotal role in the success of the early strikes against Iran.

At the start of the war, Space Command “disrupted, degraded, and blinded” Iran, rendering it vulnerable to incoming threats, preventing early detection or coordinated retaliation as electronic warfare satellites jammed radar systems, interrupted command-and-control networks and scrambled drone and missile-guidance signals.

The current network of large U.S. military and intelligence satellites does provide a major war-winning advantage over other countries, but it was built to operate in an uncontested environment. It simply isn’t resilient to the kind of threat Russia presents.

In 2021, a Russian anti-satellite weapon forced American astronauts on the International Space Station into the space equivalent of hiding in a bunker, showing just how disturbingly vulnerable the U.S. is in space.

The weapon, a direct-ascent anti-satellite missile, was launched with no warning to America and struck an old satellite during a demonstration. The impact created a massive debris field of more than 1,500 pieces, any of which could do devastating damage to the orbital infrastructure upon which the American military depends.

The next war may not begin with missiles crossing borders, but with satellites stalking one another in orbit, and Americans should be paying attention as that threat comes closer to becoming a reality. Andrew Follett conducts research analysis for a nonprofit in the Washington area.