黄金正一路下跌，逼近十多年来最差的一年。人工智能股的修正最近吸引了投资者的注意，但今年黄金价格的平静而戏剧性的走势却被掩盖。黄色金属在 2025 年是最热门的投资之一，但从一月高点下跌约 29%，周二交易价低于每盎司 4,000 美元。波动是今年美国经济和市场面临的几件事的结果，包括加息和股票的恐慌性风险厌恶。
Gold is barreling toward its worst year in over a decade. The correction in AI stocks has sucked up investors' attention lately, but it's overshadowed a quiet, dramatic move in gold prices this year. The yellow metal, which was one of the hottest investments in 2025, is down about 29% from its January high, trading below $4,000 an ounce on Tuesday. The whipsaw is the result of a few things plaguing the US economy and markets this year, from higher rates to a panicked risk-off move in stocks.
黄金今年下跌 9%，正走向 11 年来最差的年度表现，2015 年曾下跌约 10%。根据经济学家大卫·罗森伯格的分析，贵金属在十月也下跌超过 3%，标志着自大金融危机以来最差的十月。黄金与股票同步抛售是不寻常的。安全资产通常被认为会在股票波动或市场因地缘政治事件动荡时慢慢升值并提供避险。黄金需求通常在通胀担忧上升时增加，因为投资者将其视为对贬值法定货币的对冲，但 2026 年也未能证明这一点，即使伊朗战争导致油气价格飙升。
Gold is now down 9% for the year — putting it on track for its worst annual performance in 11 years, when it plunged around 10% in 2015. The precious metal also dropped more than 3% in October, marking its worst October since the Great Financial Crisis, according to an analysis from economist David Rosenberg. It's unusual for gold to sell-off in tandem with stocks. The safe haven is thought to slowly appreciate and provide a safe haven when stocks are volatile or when markets get rocked by geopolitical events. Demand for gold also generally picks up when inflation fears are on the rise, as investors see it as a hedge against a devalued fiat currency, but that hasn't proven true in 2026 either, even as the Iran war causes oil and gas prices to spike.
“黄金现在表现出过于古怪和不可预测的模式，传统相关性已被打破，”罗森伯格本周写道。“黄金越来越像一种风险资产，这是一种全新的动态。”那么，原因是什么？有几个不寻常的原因导致贵金属今年持续下滑，即使在通常会刺激反弹的环境中。以下是推动下跌的因素——以及它对美国经济和市场的意义，分析师表示。
"Gold is now behaving in too much of a bizarre and unpredictable pattern, and traditional correlations have broken down," Rosenberg wrote this week. "Gold is increasingly behaving like a risk asset, which is an entirely new dynamic." So, what gives? There are a few unusual reasons the precious metal has continued to slide this year, even amid circumstances that would normally stoke a rally. Here's what's been driving the decline — and what it says about the US economy and markets, according to analysts.
虽然更高的通胀担忧通常会推高黄金价格，但更高的利率预期提升了国债收益率和美元价值，这两种安全资产与黄金争夺资本。
While fears of hotter inflation have normally boosted gold prices, higher rate expectations lift Treasury yields and the value of the US dollar, two safe-havens that compete with gold for capital.
美国国债收益率在各个期限段均维持高位，反映出市场对美国财政前景和整体通胀升高的持续担忧。基准10年期美国国债收益率周二在4.91%左右，较年初上涨77个基点。罗森伯格表示，黄金走弱也反映出投资者对美元的看涨情绪，显示市场聚焦于利率将走高的预期。衡量美元兑一篮子其他主要货币汇率的美元指数周二小幅上升至101，较年初上涨3%。
Treasury yields are elevated across maturity curve, attesting to ongoing fears about the US fiscal outlook and higher inflation overall. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield was around 4.91% on Tuesday, up 77 basis points year-to-date. The weakness in gold also reflects investors' bullishness for the greenback, Rosenberg said, attesting to how markets are focused on the expectation for higher interest rates. The US Dollar Index, which weighs the dollar's value against a basket of other major currencies, ticked up to 101 on Tuesday, up 3% since the start of the year.
关于经济的启示：利率走高是核心故事。Capital.com高级市场分析师亚当·佩里表示，这增加了持有黄金的机会成本，而美元走强使得国际买家购买金条的成本更高。美联储在上一次政策会议上暂停了加息周期，但投资者预计央行将在进入2027年前恢复收紧政策。市场目前定价显示，美联储在年底前再加息25个基点的概率为75%，随后在1月再加息25个基点的概率为21%。
What it says about the economy: Higher interest rates are the big story. That's increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, while a stronger US dollar has made it more expensive for international buyers to purchase bullion, Adam Perry, a senior market analyst at Capital.com, said. The Fed put its rate-hiking cycle on pause at its last policy meeting, but investors expect the central bank to resume tightening heading into 2027. Markets are now pricing in a 75% probability the Fed will raise rates another quarter of a percentage point before the end of the year, and a 21% probability that will be followed by another quarter-point hike in January.
各国央行作为多元化储备的主要买家，继续大量购买黄金，但其他板块的需求正在减弱。世界黄金协会表示，此次下跌很大程度上是由实物黄金和黄金首饰购买减少推动的，指出金条和金币需求同比下降19%，全球首饰需求下降17%。在美国，黄金首饰总收入整体上升，但销量下降。根据分析公司Tenoris 9月的一份报告，黄金首饰增长集中在“较高价位”，而“低价商品”表现不佳。
Central banks continue to be major buyers of gold as they diversify their reserves, but demand from other segments is fading. Much of the decline was fueled by people purchasing less physical gold and gold jewelry, the World Gold Council said, noting that bar and coin demand has fallen 19% year-over-year, while global jewelry demand is down 17%. In the US, gold jewelry revenue is up overall, but unit sales have declined. Gold jewelry growth is concentrated at "higher price points," though "lower-priced merchandise" is underperforming, according to a September report from the analytics firm Tenoris.
关于经济的启示：K型经济可能是今年金价下跌的一个因素，随着通胀抑制了支出，更多追求奢华的购物者减少了黄金购买。全球珠宝和奢侈品放缓也可能是一个因素，特别是随着美国和中国消费者总体上收紧开支。“无论将其描述为K型经济、市场分化，还是消费支出结构的转变，数据都指向一个日益按价位分层的珠宝市场，”Tenoris在其月度报告中写道。
What it says about the economy: The K-shaped economy may be playing a role in gold's decline this year, with more aspirational luxury shoppers pulling back on gold purchases as inflation curtails spending. A worldwide slowdown in jewelry and luxury goods may also be a factor, particularly as consumers in the US and China rein in spending overall. "Whether described as a K-shaped economy, market bifurcation, or a shift in the composition of consumer spending, the data point to a jewelry market increasingly divided by price point," Tenoris wrote in its monthly report.
金价下跌主要是利率的故事，但消费者收紧开支确实“能产生实质性影响”，Interactive Brokers高级经济学家Jose Torres告诉《商业内幕》。“我认为是这多种力量共同作用的结果，”他说。根据Perry的说法，投资者可能正在抛售黄金以积累更多边线现金。考虑到AI交易遭受惨重损失，纳斯达克100指数自10月初触及纪录高位以来已进入正式回调区间并蒸发约2万亿美元市值，这证明投资者情绪近期有多悲观。
Gold's decline is largely a rates story, but consumers pulling back certainly "can move the needle," Jose Torres, a senior economist at Interactive Brokers, told Business Insider. "I think it's been that combination of forces," he said. Investors may be looking to sell gold to build up more cash on the sidelines, according to Perry. It's a testament to how negative investor sentiment has been lately, given the brutal losses in the AI trade, with the Nasdaq 100 slipping into an official correction and shedding around $2 trillion in market cap since hitting a record in early October.
“这有助于解释为何尽管不确定性加剧，黄金周五仍随股市大幅下跌，”Perry在致客户的报告中写道。Rosenberg表示，科技股仓位的追加保证金通知也可能最近迫使投资者抛售黄金，他指出，保证金交易者可能接到券商电话，要求存入更多现金以弥补股票持仓损失。FINRA数据显示，10月客户保证金账户借方余额接近历史高位。
"This helps explain why gold fell sharply alongside equities on Friday, despite heightened uncertainty," Perry wrote in a note to clients. Margin calls on tech positions may also have forced investors to sell gold lately, Rosenberg said, noting that those trading on margin may receive calls from their brokerages asking them to deposit more cash to backstop losses on their stock holdings. Debit balances in customers' margin accounts sat near a record high in October, FINRA data shows.
关于市场的启示：避险情绪可能极端到投资者抛售黄金而非将其作为避风港。“投资者在清算其他资产的过程中……如果你还记得，我们在2008年秋季和9·11恐袭后也曾短暂见过这种情况，”Rosenberg说。
What it says about markets: Risk-off sentiment may be so extreme that investors are selling gold instead of using it as a safe haven. "Investors liquidating other assets in the process… if you recall, we saw this take hold briefly in the fall of 2008 and after the 9/11 terrorist attacks as well," Rosenberg said.
托雷斯指出，在2025年类似“迷因股”式的暴涨之后，投资者对黄金的敞口也非常高。托雷斯表示，黄金历史上曾出现过大幅上涨，随后进入近乎零收益的时期。他指出，该金属在2025年的两位数涨幅，与全球金融危机后黄金的爆发式上涨相似。他提到，随后黄金停滞了十年，才迎来类似的上涨行情。托雷斯表示，黄金可能正进入类似的、持续数年的技术性横盘整理格局，涨幅疲软，并补充称，投资者可能更关注股票和房地产等其他资产，以寻求更强劲的回报。“如果普遍缺乏投资者需求，那么它就真的无法上涨，”他说到黄金前景时表示。
Investors were also highly exposed to gold after its meme-like rally in 2025, Torres noted. Gold has historically seen large upswings before entering a period of near-zero gains, Torres said. He pointed to the metal's double-digit rally in 2025, which mirrored gold's explosive rally coming out of the Great Financial Crisis. The metal stagnated for the following decade before seeing a similar run-up, he noted. Gold may be entering a similar yearslong technical holding pattern with subdued gains, Torres said, adding that investors may be more focused on other assets, like stocks and real estate, for stronger returns. "If you just generally don't have the investor demand, then it can't really rally," he said of the outlook for gold.