特朗普即将重新定义“跛脚鸭”总统任期。作者：大卫·弗鲁姆 唐纳德·特朗普将无法应付。如果他失去对国会一院的控制，更不用说两院，世界将看到一场规模堪比《指环王》最终章的性格崩溃和愤怒崩溃。
Trump is about to redefine the lame-duck presidency. By David Frum Donald Trump won’t be able to cope. If he loses control of one chamber of Congress, never mind both, the world will see a personality collapse and rage meltdown on the scale of the final sequence of the Lord of the Rings.
2018年的特朗普勉强能够应付。那时，他有几件事对自己有利。首先，尽管共和党在众议院遭受重创，但在参议院赢得了两个席位。特朗普将参议院的胜选解读为“人们喜欢我”的证明，将众议院的失利解读为对不忠于特朗普的共和党人的谴责。谈到在犹他州失去席位的一位共和党人米娅·洛夫时，他说：“米娅·洛夫没有给我爱，但她输了。太遗憾了。”
The Donald Trump of 2018 could cope, barely. Back then, he had a number of things going for him. First, although Republicans suffered heavy losses in the House, they gained two seats in the Senate. Trump interpreted the Senate gains as proof that “people like me,” and the House losses as a rebuke to Trump-disloyal Republicans. “Mia Love,” he said of a Republican who lost her seat in Utah, “gave me no love, but then she lost. Too bad.”
其次，2018年的特朗普受益于强劲的经济。他在伊拉克和叙利亚打的战争进展顺利，并获得了广泛的两党支持，因为这场战争始于奥巴马总统任期内。
Second, the Trump of 2018 had the benefit of a strong economy. The war he was fighting in Iraq and Syria was going well and commanded broad bipartisan support, given that it started under President Obama.
第三，特朗普在2018年选举中个人利害关系不大。那一年对他最大的威胁是特别检察官罗伯特·穆勒对他与俄罗斯关系的调查。穆勒调查是在行政部门内部进行的。尽管共和党当时控制着众议院，该调查仍被启动，而特朗普后来即使在共和党失去众议院后，也能够控制住调查造成的损害。第四，2018年的特朗普更年轻、更敏捷，并且在为未来做计划：他的2020年连任竞选。
Third, Trump did not have a lot personally at stake in the election of 2018. The big threat to him that year was the investigation of his Russia connections by special counsel Robert Mueller. The Mueller investigation was conducted within the executive branch. That investigation had been initiated even though the Republicans held the House, and Trump was later able to contain the damage from the investigation even though Republicans lost the House. Fourth, Trump in 2018 was younger, nimbler, and planning for the future: his re-election race in 2020.
民调有时会失准。但如果最新的民调准确，2026年的特朗普将在两院都面临巨大损失，所有损失都直接指向他本人。总统通过骚扰现任共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯使其退休，在北卡罗来纳州制造了一个参议院空缺席位。前州长、民主党人罗伊·库珀现在似乎将大获全胜，甚至可能翻转州议会，从而可能颠覆共和党最成功的国会选区划分之一。
Polls sometimes miss. But if the most recent ones are accurate, the Trump of 2026 faces big losses in both houses, all of them directly implicating him. The president opened a Senate seat in North Carolina by harrying incumbent Republican Thom Tillis into retirement. Former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, now appears headed to a victory so big that he may flip the state legislature too, potentially upending one of the most successful Republican congressional gerrymanders.
在俄亥俄州州长竞选中，特朗普背书维韦克·拉马斯瓦米，后者有毒的竞选活动可能不仅让共和党失去另一个参议院席位，还可能丢掉州议会控制权。特朗普甚至让德克萨斯州的一个参议院席位陷入胶着，因为他支持名声极坏的肯·帕克斯顿，而非广受欢迎的现任议员约翰·科宁。特朗普还挑起了一场他并未取胜的对伊朗战争。
In the race for Ohio governor, Trump endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy, whose noxious campaign may cost the GOP not only another Senate seat, but the state legislature too. Trump even put a Senate seat in Texas in play by favoring the radioactive Ken Paxton over a popular incumbent, John Cornyn. Trump also started a war with Iran that he is not winning.
他征收关税推高了物价并伤害了农民。他通过所谓的“一个宏伟美妙法案”加剧了赤字，从而加速了通胀。
He imposed tariffs that have raised prices and hurt farmers. He accelerated inflation with the deficits exacerbated by his so-called One Big Beautiful Bill.
2026年的特朗普在今天这场不容忽视的选举中赌注极大。第二届特朗普政府是一个丑闻与腐败的网络。传票权力落入对手手中，将使特朗普及其家族面临巨大的法律和政治风险。与2018年不同，大量美国人将特朗普的自我敛财与自身经济衰退联系在一起。盖洛普发现，89%的美国人认为政府腐败普遍存在，比一年前上升10个百分点，比20年前上升30个百分点。这远高于任何其他发达国家，与黎巴嫩、秘鲁、加纳和尼日利亚的水平相当。
The Trump of 2026 has a lot at stake in today’s unignorable election. The second Trump administration is a network of scandals and corruption. Subpoena power in the hands of his opponents will expose Trump and his family to enormous legal and political risk. Unlike in 2018, large numbers of Americans connect Trump’s self-enrichment to their economic decline. Gallup found that 89 percent of Americans agree that corruption is widespread in government, up 10 points from just a year ago, and up 30 points from 20 years ago. That’s far higher than in any other developed country, comparable to levels found in Lebanon, Peru, Ghana and Nigeria.
2026年的特朗普比2018年的特朗普更加糊涂、更加笨拙。在选前最后一次演讲中，他提醒选民他在华盛顿特区国家广场倒影池翻修工程的搞砸之举——并沉吟着要将该池以自己的名字重新命名。
The Trump of 2026 is more addled and more clumsy than the Trump of 2018. In his final pre-election speech, he reminded voters of his botched renovation of the Reflecting Pool on the National Mall in Washington, D.C.—and mused about renaming the pool after himself.
特朗普的政治风格具有威权性。他不激励人心，也不进行谈判。他发号施令。他要求臣服。他让一切围绕自己转。特朗普从未试图扩大其支持基础。他公然偏袒共和党州长执政的州提出的灾害援助请求，而非民主党州长执政的州。他更倾向于向向共和党捐款的企业分配关税减免，而拒绝向未捐款的企业提供减免。当他在国会遭遇反对时，他以侮辱回应，永久性地疏远了日后他可能需要帮助的立法者。
Trump’s style of politics is authoritarian. He does not inspire or negotiate. He issues orders. He demands submission. He makes everything about himself. Trump never tried to broaden his support. He blatantly favored disaster-aid requests from states with Republican governors over those from states with Democratic governors. He was more likely to apportion tariff relief to firms that donated to Republicans, and more likely to refuse relief to firms that did not. When he encountered opposition in Congress, he responded with insults that permanently alienated legislators whose help he might need later.
特朗普以恐惧统治其政党，而现在这种恐惧正在消退。周日，佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯在海湖庄园附近进行竞选露面，呼吁共和党认真对对不断上涨的汽油价格表示关切——大多数美国人将这一代价归咎于特朗普发动的伊朗战争。11月1日，评论员塔克·卡尔森在X上发帖声称，特朗普正计划对伊朗发动核打击——只有副总统万斯和特使史蒂夫·威特科夫挡在了他面前。某位支持万斯的人正在泄露信息，以牺牲总统为代价提升万斯的吸引力。
Trump ruled his party by fear, and now the fear is ebbing. On Sunday, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis made a campaign appearance near Mar-a-Lago to call on Republicans to take concerns about rising gas prices seriously—a cost most Americansblame on Trump’s Iran war. On November 1, the commentator Tucker Carlson posted on X a claim that Trump was planning a nuclear strike on Iran—and that only Vice President Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff stood in his way. Somebody who supports Vance is leaking to enhance his appeal at the expense of the president.
特朗普不会耐心回应来自党内的此类挑战。他的“让美国再次伟大”超级政治行动委员会及相关实体掌握数亿美元资金。今年选举结束后剩余的资金届时可用于维持特朗普家族的政治权力——甚至可能支持特朗普的某个子女未来的总统竞选。
Trump will not respond patiently to such challenges from within. He holds hundreds of millions of dollars in his MAGA Super PAC and related entities. Whatever remains after the races this year could then go toward sustaining the Trump family’s political power—conceivably backing a future presidential bid by one of Trump’s children.
如果民主党夺得众议院控制权、传票开始送达，特朗普仍将保留对美军和美国安全机构的控制权。他可以起诉人员，可以入侵国家，可以援引紧急权力。他将变得更加愤怒、喧嚣和疯狂。
If the Democrats take the House and subpoenas start arriving, Trump will still retain control of the U.S. military and U.S. security services. He can indict people, he can invade nations, he can invoke emergency powers. He will get angrier, noisier, and crazier.
他不在乎自己政党的未来。他不在乎国家的未来。在他看来，这个国家忘恩负义地抛弃了他，他将想要惩罚这个国家。贪腐所得的钱财从来让人不踏实。随着特朗普总统任期的分钟数一点点减少，特朗普、他的子女，以及过去两年里获益最多的那圈亲密朋友和阿谀奉承者，有许多烦心事。
He doesn’t care about the future of his party. He doesn’t care about the future of the country. He will want to punish a nation that, in his view, has ungratefully rejected him. Corruptly obtained money never feels secure. Trump, his children, and his inner group of close friends and sycophants most enriched in the past two years have a lot to worry about as the minutes of Trump’s presidency tick down.