往昔美好时光，中国以世界上最伟大的汇聚故事吸引投资者。其生活水平将赶上西方，经济规模将成倍增长，股市价值也将同步增长。故事大抵如此。投资者只需在他人到来之前，站在历史的正确一边。
IN THE GOOD old days China appealed to investors as the world’s greatest convergence story. Its living standards would catch up with those in the West, its economy would multiply in size and the value of its stock market would grow in tandem. Or so the story went. Investors just needed to position themselves on the right side of history before everyone else arrived.
近年来，中国对全球投资者的残余吸引力建立在相反的逻辑之上——不是汇聚，而是多元化。关于中国命运的讨论减少了，对其独特性的认识却增多了。越来越清楚的是，中国按照共产党自己的鼓点起舞。这意味着它可以违背全球趋势，无论是好是坏。
In more recent years China’s residual appeal to global investors has rested on the opposite logic—not convergence, but diversification. There is less talk of China’s destiny, more recognition of its idiosyncrasy. China, it has become clear, dances to the beat of the Communist Party’s own drum. That means it can defy global trends, good and bad.
股市就是最近的一个例子。尽管近期出现波动，但根据MSCI世界指数，全球股票今年上涨了约10%。韩国和台湾等其他东亚经济体乘着人工智能热潮攀升至更高高度。中国也紧密融入人工智能供应链，并拥有几家创新模型制造商，包括在香港上市的Z.ai和MiniMax等公司。但中国的科技股在下半年暴跌，无论是境内还是境外。而其蓝筹指数沪深300指数，截至2026年已下跌约13%。中国股票让独特性有了同步性。
One recent example is the stock market. Global equities have risen by about 10% this year, according to the MSCI World index, despite recent jitters. Other East Asian economies like South Korea and Taiwan have ridden the artificial-intelligence boom to far greater heights. China is also tightly stitched into the AI supply chain and boasts several innovative model-makers of its own, including listed companies like Z.ai and MiniMax, which both trade in Hong Kong. But China’s tech shares have plummeted in the second half of the year, onshore and off. And its blue-chip index, the CSI 300, is down by about 13% so far in 2026. Chinese equities have put the sync into idiosyncrasy.
中国政府似乎对这种特殊主义的特定来源感到厌倦。这场暴跌促使“国家队”进行新一轮买入，即在需要时支撑市场的国有金融机构。中国央行也出手相助。11月2日，它表示将重启一项计划，帮助保险公司和券商等机构投资者获得融资股票购买所需的流动性抵押品。它还将降低公司回购自身股票的借贷成本。
China’s government seems fed up with this particular source of exceptionalism. The rout has prompted fresh buying from the “national team”, state-owned financial institutions that prop up the market when needed. China’s central bank has also lent a hand. On November 2nd it said it would dust off a scheme that helps institutional investors, such as insurers and brokers, obtain the liquid collateral they need to finance their equity purchases. It will also make it cheaper for companies to borrow to buy back their own shares.
股市为何低迷？部分原因在于那些“中国特色”。以财政政策为例。其他主要经济体本应从财政紧缩中受益，但实际却很少看到。相比之下，中国政府本应放松财政，却在收紧。高盛银行估计，广义上的财政赤字今年将占GDP的1.4%，将有所收窄。
Why is the stock market sagging? Some of it has to do with those Chinese characteristics. Take fiscal policy. Other big economies would benefit from budgetary restraint but will see little of it. In China, by contrast, the government is tightening its belt when it should be loosening it. Its fiscal deficit, broadly defined, will narrow this year by 1.4% of GDP, reckons Goldman Sachs, a bank.
无休止的房地产低迷仍在造成损害。10月29日，信用评级机构惠誉表示，可能下调珠海华发集团发行的债券评级。该国有集团位于中国珠江三角洲，以一座俯瞰珠海和澳门沿海城市的72层大楼而闻名，同时背负着高达4130亿元人民币（约合620亿美元）的巨额债务。据彭博社报道，该集团最近推迟了两只信托产品（不在交易所交易的债务义务）的付款，并要求延长银行贷款期限。
An endless property slump is also still taking a toll. On October 29th Fitch, a credit-rating agency, said it might downgrade the bonds issued by Zhuhai Huafa Group, a state-owned conglomerate based in China’s Pearl River Delta. Known for a 72-storey tower overlooking the coastal cities of Zhuhai and Macau, the group also has lofty debts worth 413bn yuan ($62bn). According to Bloomberg, it recently delayed payment on two trust products (debt obligations that do not trade on exchanges) and asked for an extension on bank loans.
其上市房地产单位的股价下跌了约五分之一——尽管该集团的主要所有人、珠海市不太可能让其在公开交易的债券上违约。
The share price of its listed property unit fell by about a fifth—never mind that the group’s main owner, the city of Zhuhai, is unlikely to let it default on a publicly traded bond.
中国表现不佳的另一个解释更令人担忧。它可能是一种似乎在全球蔓延的投资趋势的早期受害者：对人工智能热情的丧失。在西方，投资者开始担心人工智能模型最终将变成商品。随着创新者难以在模仿者面前保持持久领先，定价权将消失。在中国，这种悲惨的终局或多或少就是该行业的起点。
Another explanation for China’s underperformance is more worrying. It may be an early victim of an investment trend that seems to be spreading around the world: the loss of enthusiasm for AI. In the West investors have begun to worry that AI models will eventually become commoditised. Pricing power will disappear as innovators struggle to maintain a durable lead over imitators. In China that grim end-game was more or less the industry’s starting point.
中国的人工智能实验室公开共享了使模型变得聪明的数学“权重”。这鼓励了采用，并帮助实验室吸引了既受智力荣耀驱动，也受财务成功驱动的顶尖人才。但开放也带来商业成本。据研究机构 Epoch AI 称，中国六家领先公司的人工智能相关收入加起来，约为美国两家顶尖公司 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 合计收入的十分之一。
Chinese AI labs openly shared the mathematical “weights” that make models clever. That encouraged adoption, and helped the labs attract brainiacs motivated by intellectual glory as well as financial success. But openness comes at a commercial cost. The AI-related revenues of China’s six leading firms together amount to about a tenth of the combined revenues of America’s top two, OpenAI and Anthropic, according to Epoch AI, a research firm.
中国或许也预示着，当新科技股的供应终于赶上需求时会发生什么。它通过拥挤的首次公开募股管道，测试了投资者的胃口。美国可能会发现，Anthropic 备受期待的上市会引发类似的消化不良，即使是在其规模大得多的市场中也是如此。
China may also offer a foretaste of what happens when the supply of new tech shares finally catches up with demand. It has tested investors’ appetite with a crowded pipeline of initial public offerings. America may find that Anthropic’s highly anticipated listing provokes similar indigestion, even in its much bigger market.
中国的种种特殊之处令许多全球投资者望而却步。科技圈更大的担忧是，中国当下的精简状态将成为世界其他地区的未来。中国或许与其说是个例外，不如说是个预兆。
China’s oddities deter many global investors. A bigger worry in tech circles is that China’s lean present becomes the rest of the world’s future. China may be less an outlier than an omen.