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印度卢比反弹或因股市资金流入和美元走弱而获得新动力India rupee's recovery may find fresh legs from equity flows, dollar weakness

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2025年8月1日,印度班加罗尔一处市场,一名男子在清点印度纸币。路透社/普里扬舒·辛格A man counts Indian currency notes at a market in Bengaluru, India, August 1, 2025. REUTERS/Priyanshu Singh

印度卢比持续的反弹将在周三获得股市资金流入复苏和美元走弱的支撑,此前美国大选结果显示民主党势头正劲。

The Indian rupee's ongoing recovery will draw support on Wednesday from a revival in equity inflows and a dip in the dollar amid US election results indicating momentum for the Democratic Party.

据交易员称,卢比周三可能在94.70附近开盘,周二收于94.74。

The rupee was likely to open around 94.70, according to traders, after settling at 94.74 on Tuesday.

美元指数下跌0.3%,而美国股指期货和国债下跌,因投资者为中期选举中民主党取得有利结果进行布局。

The dollar index slipped 0.3%, while US equity futures and Treasuries fell amid investor positioning for a favourable outcome for the Democratic Party in the midterm elections.

预测市场Kalshi目前给民主党控制众议院的概率定为100%,在参议院获得多数席位的几率为99%,预示着国会两院控制权几乎确定将发生转移。

Prediction market Kalshi is now pricing in a 100% probability of the Democratic Party taking control of the House and 99% odds of the party securing a Senate majority, signalling near-certainty of a shift in control of both chambers of Congress.

荷兰国际集团(ING Bank)分析师在一份报告中表示,虽然美国中期选举结果预计不会导致外汇市场的结构性变化,但如果民主党同时拿下众议院和参议院,美元可能面临短期压力。

While US midterm results are not expected to cause structural shifts in FX, the dollar may face short-term pressure if Democrats secure both the House and the Senate, analysts at ING Bank said in a note.

他们指出,对民主党控制的国会实施更严格监管的担忧可能拖累人工智能(AI)股票,并补充说近期的市场走势已显示出此类担忧如何蔓延至美元。

They noted that concerns over tighter regulation under a Democratic-controlled Congress could weigh on AI stocks, adding that recent market moves had demonstrated how such concerns could spill over into the dollar.

亚洲货币反应平淡,而地区股市延续跌势,追随美国股指期货下跌。

Asian currencies saw a muted reaction, while regional equities extended losses, tracking declines in US equity futures.

近期人工智能主导交易的疲软为印度股市提供了支撑,后者被视为提供了一定程度的对冲。过去几个月,印度股市表现跑输大盘,部分原因是人工智能相关交易将外资吸引到了其他市场。

The recent weakness in the AI-led trade has provided support to Indian equities, which are seen offering a degree of hedge. Indian equities have underperformed over the past several months, partly because the AI-related trade has drawn foreign capital to other markets.

人工智能股票近期的回调似乎鼓励了一些资金轮动至印度。该国股市在过去四个交易日上涨了5%。

The recent pullback in AI shares appears to have encouraged some rotation towards India. The country's equities have rallied 5% over the past four sessions.

周二外国投资者净买入印度股市超过7亿美元,过去三个交易日的累计买入额达到约15亿美元。

Foreign investors poured more than $700 million into Indian equities on Tuesday, taking purchases over the past three sessions to around $1.5 billion.

预期印度可能削减或取消针对外国投资者的长期资本利得税,进一步提振了买盘兴趣。

Expectations that India may cut or scrap the long-term capital gains tax for foreign investors have further boosted buying interest.

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