字号·· | 护眼
路透社

卢比将受益于油价暴跌,但面临技术阻力与美元走强Rupee to benefit from oil plunge while facing technical resistance, dollar strength

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

2025年9月25日,印度德里老城区一家货币兑换柜台展示了一条用印度纸币制作的花环。路透社/巴维卡·查布拉/资料照片A garland made of Indian currency notes is displayed at a money exchange counter in the old quarters of Delhi, India, September 25, 2025. REUTERS/Bhawika Chhabra/File Photo

印度卢比周二有望以更稳健的姿态开盘,此前原油价格大幅下跌,不过美元走强和技术阻力预计将限制该货币的涨幅。

The Indian rupee is likely to open on firmer footing on Tuesday following a slide in crude oil prices, though dollar strength and technical barriers are expected to contain the magnitude of the currency's advance.

据交易员透露,卢比预计将在94.75-94.78区间开盘,周一收报94.90兑1美元。

The rupee is expected to open in the 94.75-94.78 range, per traders, having settled at 94.90 to the dollar on Monday.

布伦特原油周一暴跌11%,此前伊朗和卡塔尔官员举行会谈,令市场对美国和以色列与伊朗的战争得以解决、中东原油供应趋于稳定产生期待。跌势在亚洲交易时段延续,布伦特原油报104.70美元。

Brent crude plummeted 11% on Monday, after talks between Iranian and Qatari officials raised hopes of a resolution to the US-Israeli war with Iran and a stabilisation of crude supplies from the Middle East. The drop held in Asia trading with Brent at $104.70.

高油价一直是卢比承压的持久因素,其影响远不止进口账单增加。印度进口约90%的石油需求,油价上涨恶化了该国宏观经济前景,推高企业外汇套保需求,并拖累外资投资组合流入。

High oil prices have been a persistent source of pressure on the rupee, with the impact extending well beyond a higher import bill. With India importing about 90% of its requirement, higher prices worsen the country's macroeconomic outlook, raise corporate currency hedging demand and weigh on foreign portfolio flows.

印度储备银行一直持续现身外汇市场以应对压力,通过抛售美元并采取其他措施来支撑卢比。

The Reserve Bank of India has remained a constant presence in the foreign-exchange market to manage the pressure, selling dollars along with deploying other measures to rein to support the rupee.

“一家私营银行的外汇交易员表示:“能改变卢比命运并提供缓解的最大因素是石油”,指的是如果中东达成持久停火,油价可能持续走低。

"The biggest thing that can change the rupee's fortunes and provide relief is oil," a currency trader at a private sector bank said, referring to the potential for sustained lower oil prices if a lasting truce is found in the Middle East.

该交易员补充称,虽然卢比开盘可能表现良好,但94.50-94.70区间构成重要的技术阻力位。

While the rupee is likely to perform well at the open, the 94.50-94.70 range presents a significant zone for technical resistance, the trader added.

亚洲货币普遍走弱是另一个可能限制卢比在初始提振后进一步上涨的因素。对石油敏感的地区同行货币,包括印尼盾和菲律宾比索,仍承压,表明投资者因人工智能相关的风险厌恶情绪,不愿买入亚洲货币。

Weakness across Asian currencies is another factor that could limit the rupee's advance beyond the initial lift. Oil-sensitive regional peers, including the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso, remained under pressure, suggesting investors were reluctant to buy Asian currencies amid AI-related risk aversion.

美国股市周一下跌,亚洲期货大体持平,投资者权衡全球最大经济体关键中期选举的可能结果。

US equities dropped on Monday and futures were largely flat in Asia with investors weighing possible outcomes from crucial midterm elections in the world's largest economy.

MSCI旗下最宽泛的亚太地区(除日本外)股票指数(.MISX00000PUS)下跌0.8%。

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MISX00000PUS) was down 0.8%.

阅读媒体原文 ↗