印度卢比周四开盘有望走高，此前油价大幅下跌，因市场押注共和党在美国中期选举中的失利可能促使总统唐纳德·特朗普退出伊朗战争。
The Indian rupee is poised to climb at the open on Thursday after oil prices tumbled on bets that the Republican Party's losses in the US midterm elections could push President Donald Trump towards an exit from the Iran war.
交易员称，卢比预计将在94.35-94.40区间开盘，周三收于1美元兑94.64卢比。在总统唐纳德·特朗普的共和党在中期选举中失去对国会的控制权后，布伦特原油暴跌约8.5%，远低于100美元。布伦特原油在亚洲时段报94.20美元，本周累计下跌近20%。
The rupee is expected to open in the 94.35-94.40 range, per traders, having settled at 94.64 to the dollar on Wednesday. Brent crude tumbled about 8.5% to well below $100 after President Donald Trump's Republican Party lost control of Congress in midterm elections. Brent was at $94.20 in Asia, down almost 20% this week.
荷兰国际银行分析师在一份报告中表示，民主党的决定性胜利意味着他们将“更有信心”反击特朗普在伊朗问题上的政策、对以色列的支持以及任何关税升级。
The Democratic Party's decisive victory will mean they will be "more confident" about pushing back against Trump's policies on Iran, support of Israel and any escalation of tariffs, analysts at ING Bank said in a note.
三菱日联银行表示，美国中期选举“代表着政治格局的重大转变”，并将引发市场所蕴含的部分政治和地缘政治风险溢价回落。
MUFG Bank said that the US midterm election "represents a meaningful shift" in the political landscape and will trigger an unwind of part of the political and geopolitical risk premium embedded in markets.
在与伊朗超过八个月的冲突中，由于军事升级反复出现、石油流动中断以及霍尔木兹海峡的不确定性，原油价格积累了相当大的地缘政治风险溢价。
Crude prices had built up a sizeable geopolitical risk premium over the more than eight months of conflict with Iran, amid repeated military escalations, disruptions to oil flows and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz.
由于冲突看不到明确的结束迹象，且谈判屡屡未能取得突破，投资者已计入中断可能持续的可能性。
With no clear end to the conflict in sight and negotiations repeatedly failing to produce a breakthrough, investors had priced in the possibility that disruptions could persist.
原油价格暴跌表明，投资者押注这一政治挫折可能促使特朗普走向通过谈判退出。
The slump in crude prices suggests investors are betting that the political setback could push Trump toward a negotiated exit.
油价持续下跌预计将实质性改变卢比的前景。除了通过降低印度石油进口的美元需求来缓解对该货币的直接压力外，这还将改善该国的增长和通胀前景，可能使印度资产对外国证券投资者更具吸引力。
A sustained decline in oil prices is expected to materially alter the rupee's outlook. Besides alleviating the direct pressure on the currency by lowering India's dollar requirements for oil imports, it would improve the country's growth and inflation outlook, potentially making Indian assets more attractive to foreign portfolio investors.
一家银行的货币交易员表示，由于对石油的担忧，卢比当前复苏的可持续性仍存疑问。原油出现有意义且持续的回调，可能会改变这一局面。
The sustainability of the rupee's ongoing recovery has remained in question due to concerns about oil, a currency trader at a bank said. "A meaningful and sustained correction in crude could change that equation."