11月4日周三，油价大幅下跌，此前美国副总统JD·万斯将共和党在美国中期选举中的失利归咎于对伊朗的战争。美国西得克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货周三东部时间中午12:36下跌近9%，至每桶87.59美元。作为油价国际基准的布伦特原油期货也下跌逾9%，至每桶93.91美元。万斯周三在社交媒体帖子中直接将共和党的选举失利与对伊朗的战争联系起来。
Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, November 4, after US Vice President JD Vance blamed the war against Iran for the Republican Party's losses in the US midterm elections. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures fell nearly 9% to $87.59 per barrel by 12:36 pm ET on Wednesday. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, also dropped more than 9% to $93.91 per barrel. Vance directly linked the Republican Party's election defeat to the war against Iran in a social media post on Wednesday.
“我们输的原因是战争，”万斯在帖子中表示。他还提到了特朗普本人的言论，称：“总统本人昨晚也这么说了。”周二的选举中，民主党取得重大胜利，赢得了美国众议院和参议院的控制权。选举结果使民主党拥有更大权力来挑战总统唐纳德·特朗普的决定，包括其处理对伊朗战争的方式。民主党现在可能会向特朗普施压，要求其结束这场战争，这场战争已变得不受欢迎，并推高了美国的汽油和柴油价格。
“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance said in the post. He also pointed to Trump's own comments, saying, “The president himself said so last night.”Democrats won major victories in Tuesday's elections, sweeping both the US House of Representatives and the Senate. The election results have given Democrats greater power to challenge President Donald Trump's decisions, including his handling of the war against Iran. Democrats could now put pressure on Trump to end the war, which has become unpopular and has pushed up petrol and diesel prices in the US.
石油市场专家认为，选举结果可能增加美国与伊朗达成协议并降低地区紧张局势的可能性。特朗普可能在共和党中期选举失利后更换皮特·赫格塞斯，罗恩·德桑蒂斯在竞选中：报道“选举正引导市场得出结论，特朗普现在可能倾向于达成协议，”Lipow Oil Associates总裁安迪·利波表示。利波表示，民主党也可能试图限制战争资金，使特朗普政府更难继续其军事行动。
Oil market experts believe the election results could increase the chances of the US reaching a deal with Iran and reducing tensions in the region. Trump may replace Pete Hegseth after GOP midterm losses, Ron DeSantis in race: Report “The elections are leading the market to conclude that Trump might now be inclined to make a deal,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said. Lipow said Democrats could also try to restrict funding for the war, making it harder for the Trump administration to continue its military campaign.
他还提到，特朗普本周早些时候宣布美国将削减对以色列的部分资金，据CNBC报道。据利波称，这一决定可能会向以色列施压，迫使其接受华盛顿关于冲突的决定。特朗普周二对《金融时报》表示，他目前没有立即对伊朗发动打击的计划。
He also pointed to Trump's announcement earlier this week that the US would cut some of its funding to Israel, according to CNBC. According to Lipow, this decision could put pressure on Israel to accept Washington's decisions on the conflict. Trump told the Financial Times on Tuesday that he had no immediate plans to launch strikes against Iran.
最新油价下跌之前，石油市场一直在为中期选举后可能出现的重大军事升级做准备。这一担忧曾推动10月份油价上涨超过10%，因为交易员担心冲突可能会进一步恶化。本周油价下跌逾14%本周油价期货下跌超过14%，原因是美国和伊朗高级官员表示，他们愿意就冲突寻求外交解决方案。过去八个月，这场战争一直扰乱全球能源供应，给石油市场带来不确定性。
Before the latest fall in prices, oil markets had been preparing for the possibility of a major military escalation after the midterm elections. This concern had pushed oil prices up by more than 10% in October as traders worried that the conflict could become worse. Oil prices fall over 14% this weekOil futures have fallen more than 14% this week as senior officials from the US and Iran signalled that they were open to a diplomatic solution to the conflict. The war has disrupted global energy supplies for the past eight months, creating uncertainty in oil markets.
然而，一些市场专家认为，最新的油价下跌可能过于剧烈。“抛售可能有点过度了，”加拿大帝国商业银行（CIBC）高级能源交易员丽贝卡·巴宾（Rebecca Babin）说。
However, some market experts believe the latest fall in oil prices may be too sharp. “The selloff could be getting a bit overdone,” Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC, said. Trump Media stock plunges 11% to record low after Democrats win Congress, wiping $73 million off Trump's fortuneBabin said oil markets were reacting quickly to the unexpected election results, with investors selling first and assessing the situation later.
巴宾表示，石油市场正在对意外的选举结果做出快速反应，投资者先抛售，后评估局势。她将市场的反应描述为“先开枪，后提问”的做法，称选举结果公布后情绪高涨。巴宾说，许多观察人士曾预期，民主党大胜将迫使特朗普对伊朗采取更强硬的军事行动。然而，她表示，万斯的言论以及一些重要美国盟友缺乏公开支持，已经挑战了这一预期。军事升级风险依然存在尽管油价大幅下跌，专家仍警告称，中东地区发生军事行动的风险并未消失。
She described the market's reaction as a “shoot first, ask questions” approach, saying emotions were running high after the election results. Babin said many observers had expected a major Democratic victory to push Trump towards taking stronger military action against Iran. However, Vance's comments and the lack of public support from some important US allies have challenged that expectation, she said. Risk of military escalation remainsDespite the sharp fall in oil prices, experts have warned that the risk of military action in the Middle East has not disappeared.
拉皮丹能源公司（Rapidan Energy）总统、前总统小布什顾问鲍勃·麦克纳利（Bob McNally）表示，该地区发生军事升级的可能性仍然较大。麦克纳利说，伊朗在其立场上依然强硬，不太可能轻易改变其对冲突的处理方式。“伊朗在其不妥协的立场上态度强硬，”麦克纳利说。
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and a former adviser to President George W. Bush said the chances still favour military escalation in the region. McNally said Iran remained firm in its position and was unlikely to change its approach to the conflict easily.“Iran is hardened in its uncompromising position,” McNally said.
据CNBC报道，他还表示，特朗普不太可能放弃阻止伊朗发展核武器的目标，尤其是在为此付出重大政治代价之后。麦克纳利警告说，特朗普可能不愿放弃这一问题，因为阻止伊朗获得核武器已成为他政治遗产的重要组成部分。
He also said Trump was unlikely to abandon his goal of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, especially after paying a major political price for pursuing it, according to CNBC. McNally warned that Trump may not be willing to walk away from the issue because preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon has become an important part of his political legacy.