共和党人在2024年胜利后，难得获得推进保守改革事业、巩固新多数联盟的机会。选民周二以压倒性的判决，将他们从众议院和参议院的权力中扫除，对其错失良机进行了严厉审判。
Republicans emerged from their victory in 2024 with a rare chance to advance the cause of conservative reform and consolidate a new majority coalition. Voters rendered a crushing verdict Tuesday on their missed opportunity by sweeping them from power in the House and Senate.
[audio] 共和党人为“蓝色浪潮”做准备 / 最高法院再次审理宗教学校案件 共和党人或许可以自我安慰，认为第二任期总统的中期选举失利很常见。但这次失利远不止是一次普通的失败。在曾成为共和党堡垒的州失去参议院席位和州长职位，其影响将持续多年。州立法机构下选票的连锁失利，也将产生同样的影响。
[audio] Republicans Brace for a Blue Wave / The Supreme Court’s Case on Religious Schools, Again Republicans may console themselves that midterm defeats in second presidential terms are common. But this was more than a normal defeat. The loss of Senate seats and governorships in states that had become GOP redoubts will have ramifications for years to come. So will the cascading losses down ballot in state legislatures.
一如既往，特朗普总统已经开始指责所有人，但他才是这场溃败的主要策划者。他会说参议院没有废除阻挠议事或通过他的《拯救美国法案》。但即使有足够票数做到其中任何一项，今年也无法拯救共和党。他会责怪卡尔·罗夫和得克萨斯州参议员约翰·科宁，认为他们导致了孤星州的惨败，但失败的参议院候选人肯·帕克斯顿是他自己的人——他的选择也帮助推翻了格雷格·阿博特州长。
True to form, President Trump is already blaming everyone else, but he is the main architect of this rout. He’ll say the Senate didn’t break the filibuster or pass his Save America Act. But neither would have saved the GOP this year, even if there had been enough votes to do either. He’ll blame Karl Rove and Texas Sen. John Cornyn for the shocking defeats in the Lone Star State, but failed Senate candidate Ken Paxton was his man—and his choice helped bring down Gov. Greg Abbott too.
特朗普先生对至少三场参议院失利负有直接责任：肯·帕克斯顿本可以支持约翰·科宁；北卡罗来纳州，他迫使汤姆·蒂利斯参议员放弃连任竞选；达琳·格雷厄姆，他敦促她参选以接替已故的哥哥林赛·格雷厄姆，尽管她缺乏政治经验和政策知识。
Mr. Trump is directly responsible for at least three Senate defeats: Mr. Paxton when he could have endorsed Mr. Cornyn instead; North Carolina, where he drove Sen. Thom Tillis from running for re-election; and Darline Graham, whom he pressed to run to replace her late brother, Lindsey Graham, despite her lack of political experience or policy knowledge.
再加上佐治亚州，他与其他共和党人的内讧分裂了党派，并阻止了布莱恩·肯普州长参选参议院。特朗普先生现在已经帮助民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫两次获胜，第一次是2021年他的特别选举灾难。
Throw in Georgia, where his war on other Republicans divided the party and kept Gov. Brian Kemp from running for Senate. Mr. Trump has now helped Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff win twice, first with his special-election fiasco in 2021.
更广泛地说，总统第二任期任性又自我放纵的治理，已经疏远了他2024年组建的联盟中的大部分。他承诺重复第一任期的经济成功，从而赢得第二任期。但这一次，他坚持实施普遍关税，往往随意妄为，导致许多商品价格上涨，尤其对爱荷华州、堪萨斯州和农业地带造成严重打击。他与加拿大毫无意义的贸易战，损害了密歇根州、缅因州，甚至得克萨斯州的共和党人。
More broadly, the President’s erratic and self-indulgent second-term governance has alienated much of the coalition he assembled in 2024. He won a second term on the promise to repeat the economic success of his first. But this time he insisted on imposing universal tariffs, often willy-nilly, that have raised prices for many goods and been especially damaging in Iowa, Kansas and the Farm Belt. His senseless trade war with Canada hurt Republicans in Michigan, Maine, even Texas.
附近的图表显示，他在第一任期和第二任期之间的经济工作支持率。第一任期，他大体上坚持传统的共和党政策组合——减税和放松管制，辅以少量关税。这套做法奏效了。第二任期，他在2025年4月全面押注关税，即使在最高法院的关税失利之后，他仍以不同方式继续征收关税。公众从一开始就不赞成，而在西班牙裔中，10月份对关税的不赞成率高达81%。
The nearby chart shows his job approval on the economy between the first and second terms. In the first term he stuck mostly to the traditional GOP policy mix of tax cuts and deregulation, with a smattering of tariffs. It worked. In the second he went all-in on tariffs in April 2025, and even after his tariff defeat at the Supreme Court he continued to impose them in different ways. The public didn’t approve from the start, and among Hispanics the disapproval for tariffs in October was 81%.
正如前参议员菲尔·格拉姆在此版面所警告的，几十年来，共和党每当诉诸关税，就遭遇许多类似的失败。哎呀，他们又犯了一次。
As former Sen. Phil Gramm warned on these pages, Republicans have suffered many similar defeats over the decades when they have resorted to tariffs. Oof, they did it again.
伊朗战争增加了成本问题，尤其是燃油价格。但战争更大的问题是，特朗普先生从未解释过他的战略，战争目标也始终不一致。他时而认为和平近在眼前，时而认为战争还要继续，有时一天之内就改变立场。选民不再支持这场战争，因为他们不确定特朗普先生知道如何赢得它。
The Iran war added to the cost problem on fuel prices in particular. But the bigger trouble with the war is that Mr. Trump has never explained his strategy or been consistent in his war aims. He changed, sometimes by the day, on whether peace or more war was at hand. Voters have stopped supporting the war because they aren’t sure Mr. Trump knows how to win it.
选民也反对特朗普先生似乎过分关注他个人的宠爱事业——舞厅、拱门——以及他和家人在第二任期期间变得更富有。在10月份福克斯新闻的一项民调中，不少于88%的选民将“腐败”列为首要关切，这一比例高于说通货膨胀的85%。
Voters also rebelled against Mr. Trump’s seeming preoccupation with his pet personal causes—the ballroom, the arch—and how he and his family have grown richer during the second term. No less than 88% of voters mentioned “corruption” as their top concern in an October Fox News poll, a higher percentage than the 85% who said inflation.
民主党在广告中将成本与腐败联系起来，效果显著。即使这种联系并不公平或不真实，它也迎合了选民的不满：总统家庭过得很好，而他们却不是。腐败指控很可能在未来两年内困扰特朗普先生，因为国会中的民主党人将调查相关交易和细节。
Democrats linked costs and corruption in their ads to damaging effect. Even if the link isn’t fair or true, it played to the frustration of voters that the President’s family is doing well while they are not. The charge of corruption is likely to haunt Mr. Trump across the next two years, as Democrats in Congress investigate the deals and details.
对国会中的共和党来说，最重要的是，白宫的主人未能提供领导力和说服力，帮助该党微弱的多数席位在一项重大减税法案之外取得更多成就。他专注于向政治对手报复，试图证明其关于2020年大选被窃取的说法，并宣扬今年关于选民舞弊的可疑担忧。但选民以压倒性的方式表明，总统职位并非关于他本人。
Most important for the GOP Congress, the man in the White House failed to provide the leadership and salesmanship to help the party’s narrow majorities do more than the one big tax bill. He was preoccupied with exacting revenge on his political opponents, attempting to vindicate his claim that the 2020 election was stolen, and promoting dubious worries about voter fraud this year. But the voters said in resounding fashion that the Presidency isn’t about him.
共和党人曾无数次试图让他重新集中注意力，但他总是转向政治报复，或谈论反射池，或其他什么。他对未来两年唯一值得注意的提议是一项政治贿赂——如果共和党保住众议院和参议院，就给每个美国人5000美元。而共和党人则没有什么值得注意的想要在未来两年内完成的事情。
Republicans tried countless times to refocus his attention, but he always veered into political retribution, or talking about the Reflecting Pool, or something. His only notable proposal for the next two years was a political bribe—$5,000 to every American if Republicans kept the House and Senate. Republicans in turn had nothing of note to say that they wanted to accomplish in the next two years.
这次失败留下的共和党废墟并不预示2028年将发生什么。但它确实需要反思。关税和大规模驱逐移民不能替代实际收入的增长。迎合“兄弟”MAGA基本盘，不能替代说服西班牙裔、独立选民以及周二抛弃该党的郊区摇摆选民。
The Republican wreckage left by this defeat doesn’t foretell what will happen in 2028. But it does call for soul-searching. Tariffs and mass deportation are no substitute for rising real incomes. Playing to the bro MAGA base is no substitute for persuading Hispanics, independents and suburban swing voters who abandoned the party on Tuesday.
给副总统JD·万斯的提示：所谓的“工人阶级”联盟——本应是共和党的未来——不能通过儿童补贴、支持卡车司机工会或工业政策的公司主义来收买。他们想要的是特朗普第一任期内那种普惠的繁荣。
Note to Vice President JD Vance: The “working class” coalition that is supposed to be the GOP’s future can’t be bought off with child subsidies, support for the Teamsters, or industrial policy corporatism. They want the broad-based prosperity of the first Trump term.
迈向2028年，共和党需要就特朗普之后该党代表什么展开辩论，并希望这场辩论本周就能开始。
Going into 2028, the GOP needs a debate about what it stands for after Donald Trump, and let’s hope it starts this week.