美国政治中，很少有总统如此迅速地失去如此多的政治支持。共和党人在周二遭遇的惨败，堪称现代史上对一位总统最具决定性的否定之一。特朗普总统重返白宫时，拥有他在第一任期所不具备的优势：普选胜利、一批渴望扩大其权力的助手，以及一种文化影响力——这种影响力曾让NFL球员在端区跳起“特朗普舞”。然而仅仅两年后，他的政治地位已然崩塌，这一切都源于他对自身塑造局势能力的严重误判。
Rarely in American politics has a president traded away so much political support so quickly. The losses that Republicans suffered on Tuesday marked one of the most decisive repudiations of a president in modern history. President Trump had re-entered the White House with advantages he lacked in his first term: A victory in the popular vote, a cadre of aides eager to expand his authority and cultural currency that had NFL players doing the “Trump dance” in the end zone. Only two years later, his political standing has collapsed, all due to a dramatic miscalculation of his power to shape events.
对伊朗发动的一场选择性战争，以及对美国贸易伙伴加征的关税，背离了他避免海外纠葛和遏制通胀的承诺。他对本党初选的非常规干预，让共和党人手中多了一批格外弱势的候选人。他以为会继续支持他的选民反而离他而去，使民主党人掌控了众议院和参议院，并造成了任何一党在一年前都几乎无法想象的损失。在南卡罗来纳州，选民否决了他属意的参议院候选人、缺乏经验的达琳·格雷厄姆，并将28年来首次把一名民主党人送进参议院。
A war of choice with Iran and tariffs imposed on U.S. trading partners betrayed his promise to avoid foreign entanglements and tame inflation. His extraordinary interventions in his party’s primaries left Republicans with a set of unusually weak candidates. Voters he believed would stick with him instead walked away, handing Democrats control of the House and Senate and producing losses that either party could have barely imagined a year ago. In South Carolina, voters rejected his chosen Senate candidate, the inexperienced Darline Graham, and will send a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in 28 years.
在得克萨斯州，特朗普力推被弹劾且被起诉的司法部长肯·帕克斯顿取代更稳妥的人选，导致选民自1988年以来首次选出一名民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科。在肯塔基州，民主党人赢得了一个众议院选区，而该选区选民在2024年以15个百分点的优势支持特朗普。在佛罗里达州，民主党人至少保住了三个共和党人曾重新划分以利于自己的众议院席位，尽管这些选区的选民群体在上次总统选举中约以10个百分点的优势支持特朗普。
“这完全是场大屠杀，”新罕布什尔州前共和党全国委员会成员、经历过多次总统竞选的资深人士汤姆·拉斯说。“今天发生的是美国政治的一次构造性转变。”
In Texas, Trump’s elevation of Ken Paxton, the impeached and indicted attorney general, over a safer choice led voters to elect a Democrat, James Talarico, for the first time since 1988. In Kentucky, Democrats won a House district in which voters backed Trump by 15 points in 2024. Democrats held on to at least three House seats in Florida that Republicans had redrawn to their advantage, despite voter pools that backed Trump by about 10 points in the last presidential election.“It’s total carnage,” said Tom Rath, a former Republican National Committee member in New Hampshire and veteran of multiple presidential campaigns.“What occurred today was a tectonic shift in American politics. Seismic is not big enough to describe what has occurred,” said Jason Villalba, a former Republican House member in Texas, where Democrats won races for the Senate and governor.
“用‘地震级’来形容发生的一切都不够，”得克萨斯州前共和党众议员杰森·维拉尔巴说，在该州民主党赢得了参议员和州长选举。“这是对‘让美国再次伟大’（MAGA）、对特朗普以及对特朗普主义的全盘彻底否定。”
“It’s an abject repudiation of MAGA, of Trump and of Trumpism across the board.”One open question is whether the Democratic gains are transitory or can last beyond Trump’s term in office.
一个悬而未决的问题是，民主党的获益是暂时的，还是能延续到特朗普任期结束之后。超过60%的选民表示特朗普的政策损害了经济，选民表明他们更多是在拒绝共和党，而非拥抱民主党。一项针对中期选举选民的大型民调发现，投出选票的人中，约53%对民主党持负面看法，比持正面看法的人多出6个百分点。
With more than 60% of voters saying Trump’s policies had damaged the economy, voters indicated that they were rejecting Republicans more than embracing Democrats. A majority of people who cast ballots, some 53%, held an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, 6 points more than those with a positive view, a large poll of midterm voters found.
一位习惯于创造自己政治气候体系、冲破行政权力传统护栏的总统，现在将面对一个由民主党主导的众议院和参议院，它们承诺将试图扭转他的大部分议程。民主党将面临压力，要回应自己愤怒躁动的选民，调查特朗普任内的财务获益，恢复共和党削减的医疗保险项目，并遏制驱逐行动。
MAGA damagedA president accustomed to creating his own political weather system, blowing through the traditional guardrails on executive powers, will now face a Democratic-led House and Senate that promise to try to reverse much of his agenda. Democrats will be under pressure to respond to their own angry and restive voters by investigating Trump’s financial gains in office, restoring the GOP’s cuts to health insurance programs and reining in deportations.
特朗普最大的资产之一——一个以罕见热情支持他的MAGA运动——如今已受损，甚至可能分裂。特朗普忠诚的政治基本盘让他控制了共和党主导的国会，并宣称拥有不同寻常的权力，可在未经立法者批准的情况下大幅削减联邦机构并采取其他行动。
One of Trump’s greatest assets—a MAGA movement that supported him with a rare intensity—is now damaged, if not fractured. Trump’s loyal political base allowed him to control the Republican-led Congress as he claimed unusual authority to slash federal agencies and take other actions without the approval of lawmakers.
但周二的选举结果显示，甚至许多共和党人也反对他的政策。根据一项名为“选民民调”、由SSRS对7.5万名中期选举选民进行的大型民调，支持共和党众议院候选人的选民中，超过四分之一表示特朗普的关税损害了经济，约四分之一表示他的整体政策让经济变得更糟。
But Tuesday’s election results showed that even many Republicans opposed his policies. More than one-quarter of voters who backed a GOP House candidate said Trump’s tariffs had damaged the economy, and about one-quarter said his overall policies had made the economy worse, according to a large poll of 75,000 midterm voters, called The Voter Poll by SSRS.
在俄亥俄州、得克萨斯州、堪萨斯州和其他摇摆州的参议院竞选中，共和党候选人难以凝聚共和党选民，而民主党候选人则在党内获得了接近普遍的支持。“这就是凭冲动执政的后果，”纽约州前民主党众议员史蒂夫·伊斯雷尔说，他曾领导该党众议院连任竞选四年。“这就是不后退一步、分析自己需要做什么，而只是挥舞肘部、一味向前冲的后果。”
In Senate races in Ohio, Texas, Kansas and other battleground states, GOP candidates struggled to consolidate Republican voters while Democratic candidates drew close to universal support within their party. “This is what happens when you govern by impulse,” said Steve Israel, a former Democratic congressman from New York, who led the party’s House re-election campaign for four years. “This is what happens when you’re not stepping back and analyzing what you need to do, but just throwing your elbows out and plunging forward.”
爱达荷州共和党民调专家格雷格·斯特林普尔称这是“对唐纳德·特朗普和共和党的彻底否定”。选举结果显示出特朗普所承担的风险，他的执政策略严重依赖以移民打击、对大学和企业中多元化措施的对抗，以及常常粗鲁的“气死自由派”的社交媒体形象来激发其MAGA基本盘的热情。这一策略疏远了全国大部分其他人群，当特朗普今年对共和党选民的掌控开始松动时，他在政治上便暴露无遗。
Greg Strimple, a Republican pollster based in Idaho, called it “a complete repudiation of Donald Trump and the Republican Party.”The election outcome showed the risk Trump had taken with a governing strategy that leaned heavily into exciting his MAGA base with an immigration crackdown, a battle against diversity measures in universities and businesses and an often uncouth “own the libs” social media presence. That strategy alienated much of the rest of the country, leaving Trump politically exposed when his hold on Republican voters began to slip this year.“Soft Republicans” and Republican-leaning independents abandoned the party, said Strimple, a process that he thought started with the ICE shootings of two protesters, both U.S. citizens, early this year in Minneapolis.
斯特林普尔说，“温和派共和党人”和倾向共和党的独立人士抛弃了该党，他认为这一过程始于今年早些时候在明尼阿波利斯，移民和海关执法局（ICE）枪击了两名抗议者，两人均为美国公民。“这说明特朗普的一些议程项目做得太过火了，”他说。一个更小的共和党拉思说，特朗普重新定义了共和党，并在此过程中使其规模缩小，因为他赶走了任何他视为不忠的人。
“That said Trump had gone too far with some of his agenda items,” he said. A smaller GOPTrump redefined the Republican Party, and in the process made it smaller by chasing away anyone he saw as disloyal, Rath said.
“虽然它是保守的，但它需要共和党中间派与之同行。当你连续六年或八年公开说，‘不，我们不想要你，去别的地方吧’，他们迟早会明白这个信息——而党正在为此付出代价。”在参议院选举中的后果是共和党支持的分裂，以及在独立选民中的惨重损失。
“While it’s conservative, it needs the Republican middle to go along with it. When you publicly say for six or eight years, ‘No, we don’t want you, go someplace else,’ sooner or later they get the message—and the party is paying the price for it.”The consequence in Senate elections was a fracturing of Republican support and steep losses among independent voters.
根据《选民民调》的结果，塔拉里科获得了在德克萨斯州投票的民主党人的99%支持，而帕克斯顿仅获得了88%的共和党人支持。与此同时，独立选民以近30个百分点的优势投票给民主党人。其他参议院战场州的选民也沿着相同的界线分化。在俄亥俄州，前参议员、民主党人谢罗德·布朗赢得了参议员竞选，民调显示，97%的民主党人支持他的候选资格，而他的对手、参议员约翰·休斯特德在争取首个完整任期的竞选中获得了90%的共和党人支持。独立选民以25个百分点的优势支持民主党人。
While Talarico consolidated 99% of Democrats who voted in Texas, Paxton was drawing only 88% of Republicans, The Voter Poll found. Independents, meanwhile, voted for the Democrat by nearly 30 points. Voters in other Senate battlegrounds divided along the same lines. In Ohio, where former senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, won his Senate race, 97% of Democrats were backing his candidacy, while his opponent Sen. John Husted was drawing 90% of Republicans in his bid for his first full term, the poll found. Independents backed the Democrat by 25 points.
这一结果不仅改变了国会的权力结构，还为民主党在2028年总统大选中赢得俄亥俄、爱荷华和北卡罗来纳等州打开了前景。这些州曾在2008年支持民主党人巴拉克·奥巴马，但后来大幅倒向特朗普。
The outcome not only changes the power structure in Congress but opens the prospect that Democrats in the 2028 presidential election can win states such as Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina, which had backed Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 but later swung heavily behind Trump.
甚至佛罗里达州——特朗普的“第二故乡”，也是“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动的大本营——在特朗普三次赢得该州后，可能重新成为总统选战的战场州。周二，众议员拜伦·唐纳兹当选为该州首位黑人州长。但在近乎最终的计票中，他的胜出优势仅略高于1个百分点，与罗恩·德桑蒂斯州长2022年以19个百分点的优势获胜相比，支持率大幅下滑。
Even Florida—Trump’s adopted state, and the home base of the MAGA movement—may return as a presidential battleground after Trump won it three times. On Tuesday, Rep. Byron Donalds was elected as the state’s first Black governor. But his margin of victory was just over 1 percentage point in near-final tallies, a substantial deterioration of support compared with the 19-point victory that Gov. Ron DeSantis won in 2022.
周二，俄亥俄、爱荷华和德克萨斯州选出了民主党人担任州长，这对该党在即将到来的总统竞选中可能构成优势。共和党此前掌握着这三个州的州长职位。即使像德克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特这样占优势的共和党人，根据初步结果显示，也在一场预料将是压倒性的败局中被选民淘汰。
Ohio, Iowa and Texas elected Democrats as governors on Tuesday, a potential advantage for the party in the coming presidential race. Republicans had held the governor’s office in all three states. Even a Republican as dominant as Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas was ejected in what preliminary results suggested would be a lopsided loss.“I’m just overwhelmed,” said Villalba, as he considered the results in Texas.
“我简直不知所措，”维拉尔巴在考虑德克萨斯州的结果时说，“我完全没预料到这股浪潮会如此史无前例。”
“I had no expectation the wave would be this epic.”Write to Aaron Zitner at aaron.zitner@wsj.com