结果已经出来了，共和党在中期选举中一败涂地。正如预期，他们大幅失去了众议院，也如我所预测，失去了参议院。但民主党赢得的席位远远、远远、远远超过最偏激的左翼人士的梦想。民主党在得克萨斯州以巨大优势获胜：詹姆斯·塔拉里科击败了肯·帕克斯顿。他们在南卡罗来纳州获胜，林赛·格雷厄姆的妹妹落败。
Well, the results are in, and the Republican Party got absolutely annihilated in the midterm elections. They massively lost the House, as expected, and they also lost the Senate, as I predicted. But Democrats won way, way, way more seats than even the most partisan leftists dreamed they would get. Democrats won Texas by huge margins: James Talarico beat Ken Paxton. They won in South Carolina, where Lindsey Graham’s sister went down to defeat.
他们在堪萨斯、俄亥俄和艾奥瓦这样的典型红州获胜。情况糟糕到预期的费特曼翻盘也救不了共和党。什么都救不了。糟糕到唐纳德·特朗普别无选择，只能接受局面有多糟，承诺接受结果，在可能的地方与民主党合作，并否决他们可能提出的糟糕立法。他理应如此。但政策稍后再说。现在我们需要弄清楚出了什么问题。
They won in quintessential red states like Kansas and Ohio and Iowa. It’s so bad the anticipated Fetterman flip won’t save the GOP. Nothing will. It’s so bad that Donald Trump had little choice but to accept how bad it was, pledging to accept the results, work with Democrats wherever possible, and veto bad legislation they might propose. As he should. But policy comes later. Right now we need to understand what went wrong.
两年前，特朗普对民主党联盟取得了一场巨大胜利，吸引了新选民、少数族裔选民、男性、年轻人。他揭露了卡玛拉·哈里斯竞选活动的空洞，并获得了削减政府——后来成为DOGE计划——以及避免对外纠缠的授权。不要新战争！那是特朗普的承诺。让我说清楚：最重要的是，正是这个被打破的承诺——伊朗战争——显然就是特朗普的选民昨晚没有为他出来投票的原因。
Two years ago, Trump won a massive victory over the Democratic coalition, bringing in new voters, minority voters, men, young people. He exposed the hollowness of the Kamala Harris campaign and achieved a mandate to cut government — which became the DOGE initiative — and to avoid foreign entanglements. No new wars! That was Trump’s promise. And let me be clear: more than anything else, that broken promise, the Iran War, is clearly why Trump’s voters did not show up for him last night.
几周以来，任何留心的人都看得很清楚，美国人对高能源价格感到愤怒，而这是这场鲁莽袭击伊朗的下游后果——这场袭击从未向美国人民作出正当解释，从未经国会投票，而且完全违背了特朗普的竞选承诺。当你打破承诺，你的选民就会惩罚你。老布什以“看我的口型，不加新税”领教了这一点。现在特朗普正在领教。而代价很高。
It has been obvious for weeks, to anyone who was paying attention, that Americans are furious about high energy prices that are downstream of this reckless attack on Iran, that was never justified to the American people and never voted on by Congress, and that went entirely contrary to Trump’s campaign promise. When you break a promise, your voters punish you. George H.W. Bush learned that with “read my lips, no new taxes.”Now Trump is learning it. And the price is high.
共和党受到的适度惩罚或许是咎由自取，能让他们重回正轨，但这大概是我有生以来美国政治中对执政党最惊人的谴责。只有 2008 年奥巴马赢得“三权合一”外加参议院 60 席的超级多数，才勉强能与之相比。值得庆幸的是，民主党无法处于通过立法的位置——特朗普可以行使否决权。但他们将处于对特朗普家族、政府及特朗普支持者——从最底层到最高层，包括埃隆·马斯克——发起调查的位置。
A moderate comeuppance for the GOP might have been well deserved to get them back on track, but this is perhaps the most staggering rebuke of the incumbent party in American politics in my lifetime. Only Barack Obama’s trifecta + 60 in the Senate in 2008 comes close. Thankfully, Democrats will not be in a position to pass legislation — Trump can veto it. But they will be in a position to launch investigations of the Trump family, the administration and Trump supporters, from the lowliest to the highest, including Elon Musk.
那将是民主党的议程。我不会排除他们再次试图弹劾特朗普的可能性，且毫无疑问，他们离拥有足够票数实现这一目标非常、非常近。这就是这场鲁莽战争的代价：特朗普议程的终结，永远的终结。特朗普将永远不再拥有那种能够推行“美国优先”议程的政治权力。当然，总统本人理应为此承担责任，而在内心深处他也清楚这一点。
That will be the Democratic agenda. I would not rule out the possibility that they try to impeach Trump again, and make no mistake, they are very, very close to having the votes to pull that off. That is the cost of this reckless war: The end of the Trump agenda, forever. Trump will never again have the kind of political power he had to enact the America First agenda. Certainly the president himself deserves blame for this, and deep down he knows it.
但我们也必须指责那些新保守主义顾问，他们怂恿他做选民不想做的事：挑起一场代价高昂的冲突，对手是一个遥远的外国，与我们自身的安全基本无关。他们渴望这场战争已久，而特朗普把战争给了他们。结果却毁了他的政党。每一个鹰派的共和党帮凶——那些说战争会很快结束、不会影响中期选举、担忧被夸大的人——要么是蠢货，要么是骗子。
But we must also blame the neoconservative advisers who urged him to do something his voters did not want: initiate a costly conflict with a distant foreign nation that is largely irrelevant to our own security. They have desired this war forever, and Trump gave it to them. And it has destroyed his party. Every hawkish GOP hack who said the war would be over quickly, or it wouldn’t matter for midterms, or the concerns were overblown, is a fool or a liar.
另一方面，每一个“美国优先”民粹主义者或自由意志主义者，那些说“嘿，等一下，我们为什么要这么做”的人，敲响警钟完全正确。这是愚蠢——不，这是疯狂。如今恶果自食。民主党不仅击败了共和党，简直把他们摧毁了。他们的胜利如此彻底，以至于候选人素质都不再重要。除佛罗里达州这一共和党唯一的亮点外，基本上故事就是：每一个可能输掉的共和党人都输了。全部。每一个。
On the other hand, every America First populist or libertarian who said, “hey wait a minute, why are we doing this,” was absolutely correct to sound the alarm. It was foolishness — no, it was madness. And now the chickens have come home to roost. The Democrats didn’t just beat Republicans, they destroyed them. Their victories were so absolute that candidate quality didn’t matter. With the exception of Florida, the sole bright spot for the GOP, basically the story is that every single Republican who could lose did lose. All of them. Every single one.
他们在参议院竞选中失利，在众议院竞选中失利，在州议会和州长竞选中也失利。这无法粉饰：这是一场几个月前根本无法想象的惨败。顺便说一句，几个月前，伊朗战争才刚刚开始，尚未损害经济。一旦选民明白特朗普不会结束这场战争，他们便决定惩罚他。而他们确实这么做了。罗比·索夫是《国会山报》评论节目《崛起》的联合主持人，也是《理性》杂志的资深编辑。本专栏为其每日评论的编辑版记录。
They lost in the Senate races, they lost in the House races, they lost in the state legislatures and governors’ races. You can’t sugarcoat this: It’s a blowout that would have been unthinkable just a few months ago. Oh, by the way, a few months ago, the Iran War was in its infancy, and had not yet damaged the economy. Once voters understood Trump wasn’t ending it, they decided to punish him. And so they have. Robby Soave is co-host of The Hill’s commentary show “Rising” and a senior editor for Reason Magazine. This column is an edited transcription of his daily commentary.