
中期选举报道:实时结果 | 须知 | 全国各地的故事 保持联系:NPR政治播客 | NPR政治通讯 | NPR应用 进入选举之夜前,所有迹象都指向民主党。但没有任何迹象表明会出现如此大获全胜的局面。
Midterms coverage: Live results | What to know | Stories around the country Stay connected: NPR Politics Podcast | NPR Politics newsletter | NPR app All the signs were pointing in Democrats' direction heading into election night. But nothing indicated quite this level of a romp.
民主党赢得了众议院和参议院,虽然这一结果始终是一种可能,但民主党胜利的深度和广度令人瞠目结舌。
Democrats won the House and the Senate, and while that outcome was always a possibility, the depth and breadth of the Democratic victories were jaw-dropping.
周二晚上提醒人们,美国政治的钟摆继续摆动,政治从来不是永久的。
Tuesday night was a reminder that the pendulum of American politics continues to swing, and politics is never permanent.
以下是关于发生了什么、为什么会发生以及这一切对未来意味着什么的六点总结:
Here are six takeaways about what happened, why it happened and what it all means going forward:
- 特朗普总统希望这次选举围绕他展开。事实确实如此,而这伤害了共和党进入选举之夜前,特朗普的不受欢迎程度一直是共和党一个刺眼的警示信号。自伊朗战争以来,特朗普的平均民调支持率从48%下滑至最低36%。
- President Trump wanted this election to be about him. It was, and that hurt Republicans President Trump's unpopularity has been a glaring warning sign for the Republican Party heading into election night. Since the Iran war, Trump's approval ratings slid from 48% to as low as 36% in an average of the polls.
根据广播网络和美联社委托进行的选民调查,本次选举中有高达62%的选民不认可他作为总统的表现。该调查综合了选举日之前对提前投票选民的民调和选举日出口民调。
A whopping 62% of voters in this election disapproved of his job as president, according to the voter poll commissioned by the broadcast networks and the Associated Press, which mixes pre-Election Day polling of early voters and Election Day exit polls.

四分之三的选民表示,他们对国家的发展方向感到愤怒或不满。相对多数选民表示经济是最重要的议题,三分之二的选民表示特朗普的政策使经济状况恶化。
Three-quarters of voters said they are either angry or dissatisfied with the direction of the country. A plurality said the economy was the most important issue, and two-thirds said Trump's policies have made economic conditions worse.
除经济之外,腐败在过去几个月里也成为一个上升的议题。选民调查显示,62%的人表示特朗普优先考虑自身利益而非国家利益。
In addition to the economy, corruption rose as an issue in the last several months. The voter poll showed that 62% said Trump prioritizes his own interests more than the country's.
无论这次选举将被如何书写,底线是特朗普发动了一场他说自己不会卷入的战争——一场旷日持久、推高汽油价格、让本已感到拮据的人雪上加霜的战争——而现在他正在付出代价。
For all of the things that will be written about this election, the bottom line is that Trump waged the kind of war he said he wouldn't get into — one that is dragging on, raising gas prices and piling on people who were already feeling the pinch — and now he is paying the price.
如果说特朗普本应是2028年共和党总统初选的造王者,那可得再想想了。这次中期选举将对总统大选产生重大影响。这很可能意味着更多共和党候选人将加入选战,而且他们更可能提出对党内方向更宽广的愿景——而不是仅仅试图扛起特朗普的大旗。
If Trump was supposed to be the kingmaker in the 2028 Republican presidential primary, think again. These midterms will have heavy reverberations for the presidential election. It will likely mean more GOP candidates will enter the race, and they will be more likely to present a wider view of what the direction of the party could be — rather than simply trying to carry the Trump torch.
- 共和党人试图通过重新划分选区来保护自己,但没有奏效这次选举的基本面似乎与2006年伊拉克战争期间的中期选举相似——那是民主党上一次同时赢回众议院和参议院。不过,民主党在本次选举中的斩获被认为可能受到结构性劣势的限制——主要是共和党通过重新划分选区来操纵竞争环境。
- Republicans tried to insulate themselves with redistricting, but it didn't work The fundamentals of this election seemed to mirror the 2006 midterms amid the Iraq War — the last time the Democrats won back both the House and Senate. Democratic gains in this election, though, were seen as possibly being limited by structural disadvantages — primarily through Republican efforts to tilt the playing by redistricting.
过去一年,特朗普大力鼓励保守派主导的州重新划分选区,希望在众议院获得更多共和党席位——但这适得其反,尤其是在得克萨斯州南部。一直以来都存在一种可能:无意中削弱安全选区,反而可能使这些选区变得有竞争性。如今这已成为现实,堪称“蠢划选区”的真实警示故事。
Trump strongly encouraged conservative-led states to redistrict over the last year, hoping to gain more Republican seats in the House — but that backfired, particularly in south Texas. There was always the possibility that incidentally weakening safe districts could make them competitive. Now that that's happened, it's a true cautionary tale of the "dummymander."
- 拉丁裔如今是美国真正的摇摆群体得克萨斯州共和党人重新划分选区的努力没有奏效,原因是拉丁裔在这次选举中的投票方式与2024年总统大选时不同。
- Latinos are a true swing group in America now The reason Texas Republicans' efforts to gerrymander didn't pay off is because Latinos did not vote in this election the way they did in the 2024 presidential election.
2024年,特朗普在该群体中仅落后5个百分点。当时该群体向特朗普倾斜,很大程度上是因为他们对通货膨胀感到不满,并相信特朗普会降低物价。
In 2024, Trump only lost the group by 5 points. It moved toward Trump at the time, in large measure because they were upset with inflation and believed Trump would bring down prices.
不仅这在过去两年里没有发生,特朗普还激怒了许多社区人士,因为他采取了激进的驱逐策略,打击对象不仅仅是特朗普所承诺的顽固罪犯。
Not only did that not happen over the last two years, Trump also angered many in the community because of aggressive deportation tactics that targeted more than just hardened criminals, as Trump promised.
在一份对特朗普驱逐政策的真实否定中,选民民调中约60%的受访者表示不认可移民和海关执法局(ICE)。68%的拉美裔受访者不认可ICE的工作表现。
In a real indictment of the Trump deportation policies, roughly 60% of respondents in the voter poll said they disapproved of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE. Sixty-eight percent of Hispanics disapproved of how ICE is handling its job.
需要明确的是,拉美裔并非铁板一块。南佛罗里达的拉美裔与南得克萨斯、加利福尼亚或纽约的拉美裔有着不同的背景和优先关切。但这个全国增长最快的群体大幅背离总统和共和党,这一事实使他们在选举中极为重要——他们是美国一个真正的摇摆群体,在民调中代表性不足,却拥有很大的影响力。
To be clear, Latinos are not a monolith. Latinos in South Florida have different backgrounds and priorities than those in South Texas or those in California or New York. But the fact that the largest-growing group in the country swung strongly away from the president and Republicans makes them very important electorally — a true swing group in the country that is underrepresented at the polls and has a lot of power.
- 得克萨斯和其他红州对民主党来说有得一争,还是这次选举只是一个巨大的星号?
- Are Texas and other red states in play for Democrats, or was this election a giant asterisk?
民主党在多个红州获胜。这对该党备战2028年总统选举很重要。要想真正有机会扩大总统选举版图,他们需要想办法吸引红州和农村选民。他们在这次选举中表明自己能做到这一点,但在下一届总统选举中,他们不会有特朗普作为助推火箭。
Democrats won in a lot of red states. That is important for the party heading into the 2028 presidential election. To have a real chance at expanding the presidential map, they need to figure out how to appeal to red-state and rural voters. They showed in this election they can do that, but they won't have Trump as their rocket fuel in this next presidential election.
以孤星州为例,它成为多数少数族裔州已有一段时间,这种人口结构此前曾给民主党带来虚假的希望。那么,得克萨斯是新的佐治亚,还是会回归其保守根基?
The Lone Star State, for example, has been a majority-minority state for a while, and that demography had previously given Democrats false hope. So is Texas the new Georgia, or will it revert to its conservative roots?
民主党在这次中期选举中于得克萨斯获胜的广度不可否认。他们从选票顶端到低端全面获胜——民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科以约12个百分点、即110万票的优势获胜,这是得克萨斯自1988年以来首次将一名民主党人送进参议院;候任州长吉娜·伊诺霍萨以7个百分点、即近70万票的优势获胜;他们翻转了两个国会选区,这两个选区在2024年都以至少14个百分点的优势被特朗普拿下;他们还赢得了副州长、总检察长、铁路专员等职位。
The breadth of Democratic victories in Texas in this midterm is undeniable. They won up and down the ballot — Democrat James Talarico won by roughly 12 points, or 1.1 million votes, the first time Texas is sending a Democrat to the Senate since 1988; incoming Gov. Gina Hinojosa won by 7 percentage points, or almost 700,000 votes; they flipped two congressional districts, both of which were won by Trump in 2024 by at least 14 points; they won lieutenant governor; attorney general; railroad commissioner and more.
正如得克萨斯州人所说,他们把对手打得像租来的骡子一样。但民主党是在该州租借权力,还是有更大的图谋?2028年将会有大量资金投入,以检验得州的蓝色进展是否更为持久。而且事关重大,因为得州拥有40张选举人票,让民主党真正有机会拿下该州,将重塑选举版图,其影响唯有1992年起加州转向民主党所引发的地震式转变可与之媲美。
As they say in Texas, they beat 'em like a rented mule. But are Democrats renting power in the state or is it something bigger? There is going to be a lot of money spent in 2028 to see if the blue gains in Texas are more permanent. And a lot is on the line, because Texas has 40 electoral votes, and putting it in play legitimately for Democrats would reshape the electoral map in a way that would only be rivaled by the earthquake of a shift that was California going for Democrats starting in 1992. (Yes, California used to be a reliably Republican state, going for the GOP in all but one election between 1952 and 1988.)
(没错,加州曾经是可靠的共和党州,在1952年至1988年间除一次选举外均支持共和党。)顺便说一句,这次选举的一个额外教训是,金钱并非万能。共和党在得州参议院选举中花费了超过4.13亿美元——却输了。
By the way, a bonus lesson from this election is that money isn't everything. Republicans spent more than $413 million on the Texas Senate race — and lost.

- 今年选举的结果并不意味着全国都迷恋民主党民主党有机会表明他们能够真正代表各州,并努力守住他们在许多红州和红选区取得的进展。
- The results of this year's elections don't mean the country is enamored with the Democratic Party Democrats have the opportunity to show they can authentically represent their states and try to hold onto these inroads they made in lots of red states and districts.
他们拿到了国会的钥匙,人们会期待看到成果。纽约州民主党参议员查克·舒默——这位曾经的多数党领袖可能想再次出任该职——在胜选后于夜间承诺“救济即将到来”。但如何实现?即使民主党有严肃的政策主张来帮助解决国家的经济问题,他们也无法挥动魔杖。他们在参议院不会有足以终结阻挠议事规则的多数优势,而且他们也不太可能在国会共和党人或特朗普那里找到热切的谈判伙伴。
They were handed the keys to Congress, and people are going to expect results. New York Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer, the once majority leader who may want to be in the job again, victoriously promised overnight that "relief is on the way." But how? Even if Democrats have serious policy ideas to help fix economic problems in the country, they can't wave a magic wand. They won't have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, and they are unlikely to have an eager negotiating partner in congressional Republicans or Trump.
选举日午夜前夕,特朗普在其社交媒体平台上发布了一张图片,上面是一顶写有“VETO”(否决)字样的大红帽。
Just before midnight on election night, Trump put out an image on his social media platform of a big red hat with the word "VETO" on it.
因此,民主党面临过度承诺而兑现不足的风险,这在政治中已变得司空见惯,并导致选民变得厌倦。民主党在信息传递和执政方式上必须谨慎。无疑会有更多针对特朗普政府的调查和监督。但他们将走到哪一步?例如,再次尝试弹劾特朗普,在政治上可能充满风险。
So Democrats are in danger of overpromising and underdelivering, which has become all too common in politics, and leads to voters becoming jaded. Democrats have to be careful with their messaging and how they govern. There will undoubtedly be more investigations and oversight of the Trump administration. But how far will they go? Another Trump impeachment attempt, for example, could be politically fraught.
毫无疑问,共和党在周二晚上被彻底否决,但民主党也并不怎么受待见。选民民调显示,共和党的好感度为41%,反感度为59%,处于水下。民主党则为47%对53%。在特朗普第二任期早些时候,民主党的支持率更低,主要原因是心怀不满的民主党人。他们团结起来赢得了这些中期选举,但左翼内部的裂痕正在表面之下酝酿,并将在2028年民主党总统初选中变得明显得多。
No doubt, the GOP was soundly rejected Tuesday night, but Democrats aren't much better liked. The voter poll showed Republicans underwater with a 41% favorable and 59% unfavorable rating. Democrats were 47%-53%. Democrats had lower approval ratings earlier in Trump's second term, mostly because of disaffected Democrats. They rallied together to win in these midterms, but fissures on the left are simmering below the surface and are about to become far more apparent in the 2028 presidential Democratic primaries.
- 民调方向判断正确。要说有偏差,反而是低估了民主党的支持十年来,民调一直低估共和党的支持。在这些选举中,情况并非如此。事实上,在一些地方,民调低估了民主党的支持。
- The polls got the direction right. If anything, they underestimated Democratic support For a decade, polls have underestimated Republican support. In these elections, that was not the case. In fact, in some places they underestimated Democratic support.
例如,全国通用国会选票——即如果选举在民调当天举行人们会投票给谁的问题——民主党领先约8个百分点。而选民民调显示,最终结果至少是+18。
For example, the national generic congressional ballot — the question of who people would vote for if the election was held the day of the poll — favored Democrats by about 8 percentage points. The voter poll looks like it turned out to be at least +18.
重要的是要理解,当国家经历像特朗普时代这样重大的政治重组时,民调是很难做的。
It's important to understand that it's hard to poll when the country has been going through as significant a political realignment as it has been in the Trump era.