
欧元区通胀率上月升至三年高位,因能源价格昂贵,并预计未来几个月将进一步上升,这可能巩固市场对欧洲央行12月再次加息的押注。
Euro zone inflation rose to a three-year high last month on expensive energy and was set to rise further in the coming months, likely firming up market bets for another European Central Bank rate hike in December.
欧盟统计局周三公布的数据显示,使用欧元货币的21个国家10月通胀率从上月的3.8%升至4.0%,符合路透社经济学家调查中4.0%的预期中值。
Inflation in the 21 nations sharing the euro currency rose to 4.0% in October from 3.8% a month earlier, in line with expectations for 4.0% in a Reuters poll of economists, data from Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency, showed on Wednesday.
与此同时,一个受到更密切关注的“核心”指标——即剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格——维持在2.5%不变,符合预期。
A more closely watched 'core' figure, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, meanwhile held steady at 2.5%, in line with expectations.
今年以来,随着美国在伊朗的战争推高能源成本,并传导至一个进口绝大部分能源的货币联盟的零售价格,通胀一直在迅速攀升至欧洲央行2%目标之上。
Inflation has been climbing quickly above the ECB's 2% target this year as the US war in Iran has pushed energy costs higher, feeding through to retail prices for a bloc that imports the vast majority of its energy.
虽然这一激增尚未产生难以打破的二轮效应,但欧洲央行今年已两次加息,以防止价格增长预期同步上升。
While this surge has yet to generate hard-to-break second-round effects, the ECB has already raised interest rates twice this year to prevent price growth expectations from rising in tandem.
央行上周维持利率不变,但包括德国和意大利央行行长在内的一长串政策制定者已发出信号,表明12月再次行动现在很可能发生。
The bank left rates unchanged last week but a long list of policymakers, including the influential heads of the German and Italian central banks, have already signalled that another move in December is now likely.
金融市场预计欧洲央行2.5%的存款利率在未来一年将加息两到三次,预期经常随油价变动而变动。
Financial markets are pricing between two and three rate hikes to the ECB's 2.5% deposit rate over the coming year, with expectations frequently shifting, in tandem with oil prices.
服务业通胀——消费者价格篮子中权重最大的单一项目——从3.2%回升至3.3%,工业品价格上涨1.2%,高于上月的1.1%。食品通胀持续加速,未加工食品价格较上年同期上涨4.6%。
Services inflation, the single largest item in the consumer price basket, picked up to 3.3% from 3.2% while industrial goods prices rose 1.2% after 1.1% a month earlier. Food inflation continued to accelerate with non processed food prices rising 4.6% compared to a year earlier.
分析师表示,周三的数据似乎证实能源通胀仍未产生二轮效应,但这可能仅能给政策制定者带来有限的安慰。
Wednesday's figures appear to confirm that energy inflation is still not generating second-round effects, but this is likely to offer only limited comfort to policymakers, analysts said.
昂贵的能源,尤其是柴油和天然气,会迅速渗透到其他商品和服务的价格中,产生必然挥之不去的间接影响。
Expensive energy, especially diesel and natural gas, seeps into the price of other goods and services quickly, causing indirect effects that are bound to linger.
经济学家表示,与此同时,较低的天然气库存水平给取暖成本带来了巨大的上行风险。
Low natural gas storage levels meanwhile create plenty of upside risk for heating costs, economists say.
这目前可能在数据中不太明显,但很可能会在未来几个月显现出来,特别是在1月,届时一些商品通常会重新定价。
This may not be so visible in data now but will likely show up in the coming months, especially in January, when some goods are traditionally repriced.
欧洲央行目前预计,通胀率将在2027年上半年的大部分时间里保持在4%以上,随后当基数较高的高额历史数据从数据中剔除时,通胀率将迅速回落至“2%的低位”。
The ECB now expects inflation to hold above 4% for much of the first half of 2027 before falling quickly towards the 'low twos,' when high year-earlier figures get knocked from data.